DFS Army’s Gthom breaks down which 2022 tight ends are falling in best ball drafts, but can still provide incredible best ball value. ADP’s as of 05/07/2022.
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Nov 22, 2021; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Rob Gronkowski (87) runs with the ball defended by New York Giants cornerback Darnay Holmes (30) at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Rob Gronkowski – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP (130.3)
It is pretty easy to see why Gronkowski has fallen into the TE13 range in best ball formats, he has yet to commit to playing in 2022. It is much more likely that he will play than won’t. Plus, at this late in your fantasy draft you can pair him with a solid tight end just in case he retires.
There is no question that Gronkowski has been one of the most valuable tight ends over the last decade-plus. In the previous 11 years he has finished inside the top-10 for tight ends seven times and inside of the top-five (six) times. With Tom Brady returning to Tampa, Gronkowski will still have high value for fantasy football.
Last season he was able to catch 55 passes for 802 receiving yards and six touchdowns. This allowed Gronk to finish as the TE5 overall while only playing 12 games. While active, the former Arizona Wildcat averaged 12-FPPG in 2021, third-best at the position. After getting healthy he began a dominate stretch of games from weeks 11 – 18. During that time Gronkowski finished as a TE10 or better every week, with an exception of two games. For 2021 as a whole, he was a top-three tight end on six different occasions.
The ceiling games will continue for Gronk into 2022. And now is the time to grab him at a huge — and I cannot stress this enough — huge discount in best ball formats.
Check out the Top-3 Best Ball Value Picks at WR for Best Ball
Robert Tonyan – Green Bay Packers – ADP (150.9)
The next tight end that could provide best ball value is Robert Tonyan. With his disappointing 2021 season recently behind us, plenty of fantasy managers will have a sour taste in their mouth about drafting Tonyan, who is going as the TE18.
Last season Tonyan fell victim to a torn ACL which cut his season short. Prior to this injury, fantasy managers were already feeling the regret of picking Tonyan. While he was active Tonyan was the TE22 and averaged 5.2-FPPG in 2021. This is far away from the value fantasy managers assumed he would bring to their team. He was being drafted around the TE9 spot going into the season.
Looking forward into 2022, Aaron Rodgers will need pass catchers he can trust now that Devante Adams and his 169 targets have departed for Las Vegas. The upside here is that when Rodgers finds a target that he relies on, he will make plays happen for that player and look his way repeatedly. Given the lack of receivers drafted and/or signed by Green Bay, Tonyan immediately become a player of trust and familiarity for Rodgers.
The trust from Rodgers comes from Tonyan’s 2020 season. Sure, he was touchdown dependent as hell but at the tight end position that is a norm. In 2020, Tonyan finished top-12 at his position on eight occasions; additionally, he finished as a top-five tight end six times as well. Overall he ended up as the TE3 on the year and averaged 9.4-FPPG. TE3 is the ceiling for Tonyan and this ceiling is what you should be chasing for best ball in 2022.
While Tonyan could bring forth another dud season there are few tight ends, at this position in the draft, that have the ceiling to become a top-five tight end. Rodgers needs pass catchers to step up and Tonyan easily could be one of them at TE18 off the board.
David Njoku – Cleveland Browns – ADP (162.8)
The biggest dart-throw for best ball value is none other than David Njoku. As a former first-round pick, the six-year-vet finally has another opportunity to be the first-string tight end. This becomes much more interesting now that Deshaun Watson is the new quarterback of the Browns.
Looking at Njoku’s fantasy history, he has not provided much value except for his 2018 season where he caught 56 passes for 639 yards and four touchdowns. Njoku finished as the TE9 overall and averaged 7.7-FPPG that season. 2019 – 2020 seasons were injury riddled seasons, mixed in with the failed Austin Hooper experiment.
In 2021, Njoku turned in 36 receptions for 475 yards and four touchdowns as the TE2 for the Browns. Even as a second-string he finished as top-12 tight end four times — two of which were inside the top-three. Teammate Harrison Bryant will be mixed into the fold too, but with Cleveland’s scheme you will naturally see two tight end sets.
In the end, Deshaun Watson is the X-factor for Njoku. Previous quarterbacks on the Browns have never possessed as much talent as Watson. In his career, Watson has perennially thrown for 3800 yards and 25 touchdowns. The biggest issue with relying on Watson are the legal issues surrounding his availability in 2022. Watson could easily, and will likely, miss time in 2022 due to a presumed suspension (though he may not, no official announcement has been made). Any missed time will immediately regress Njoku and the rest of the passing attack, but that is something you can absorb in a best ball format since Njoku’s ADP is TE21.
Relying on Njoku to be your team’s bona fide TE1 is a big mistake. You will want to pair Njoku with safer tight end options because he is a true dart-throw that is more likely to fail than succeed. His ceiling is what you are chasing at this point in the draft however.
MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL ANALYSIS FROM GTHOM
Best Ball:
- QBs – Top-3 Best Ball Value Picks in 2022
- RBs – Top-3 Best Ball Value Picks in 2022
- WRs – Top-3 Best Ball Value Picks in 2022
Early Redraft Rankings:
- QB rankings 1-12
- RB rankings 1-6 and RB rankings 7-12
- WR rankings 1-6 and WR rankings 7-12
- TE rankings 1-6 and TE rankings 7-12
Follow Gthom on the cesspool they call twitter, @GarettThomas.