MLB DFS Top Pitcher Breakdown Strategy | Draftkings Fanduel Friday May 20th,2022 MAIN

MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money.  But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.

Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate.  For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here.  And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com.  They are easy to find and learn.

 

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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (12 games)

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Walker Buehler @ WSH

Buehler has struggled over his last 2 starts against ARI and PHI. He has a decent matchup with the Nationals here tonight, but he’s struggled of late. Washington isn’t a big strikeout team against RHP, but Buehler has shown that he can get some K’s. The worry I have with him is the price and he hasn’t been striking out a ton of hitters over his last few starts. Tyler Anderson shut down the Nats last night and Buehler is a better starter than him. I’m going to lean GPPs for Buehler here. GPP

Kyle Gibson @ ATL

This is a risky play here, but Gibson has looked pretty good for the Phillies. The Braves have a very dangerous offense, but they are also striking out a TON against RHP in the last 2 weeks. They rank 3rd highest K% at 26.5% in that span. The Phillies have some guys with good numbers against Fried, and I think Gibson can do enough to limit damage against him. He allows too many baserunners for me to like him much on DK though. GPP

Sonny Gray vs DET

Gray has looked good in his last 3 starts for the Twins. Last time out he was finally able to reach the 6 inning mark, striking out 5 A’s and allowed just 2 ER. He has been good this season in 4 of his 5 starts and having respectable starts. The issue with him is the length. DET comes into this game with a 22.2% strikeout rate against RHP and isn’t taking many walks against righties. Gray has been really good at home, striking out 19 hitters in just 13 innings and has allowed 4 runs, compared to his 4 runs allowed in just 7.2 innings on the road. GPP

Kevin Gausman @ STL

Risky option here for Gausman in a very tough matchup against the Cardinals. Gausman has been really good for the Jays this season and really has just 2 tough starts. Other than that, he has gone deep into games and gets a little over a strikeout per inning. The Cards are a very tough matchup for him here tonight as they don’t strikeout much and hit for a ton of power. Gausman has a 2.33 ERA with 30 K’s in 27 innings on the road so far this season without allowing a HR on the road. I like his upside here at possible low ownership in a tough matchup. GPP

Framber Valdez vs CLE

Another good pitcher in a tough matchup. The Guardians don’t strikeout a lot against lefties, or for anyone for that matter. Valdez for the Astros has looked much better over his last 3 starts. Going 6+ innings in each of the 3 starts and striking out about a batter per inning. Not much history with Guardians hitters, but he has been good against their lineup. Valdez has struggled a bit more at home so far this year and it is a tough matchup. We have a lot of tough matchups tonight for good pitchers.

Dylan Cease vs BOS

Boston has been rolling at the plate of late, but Cease has just been amazing for the White Sox this year. He’s racking up strikeouts at an alarming rate and has 9, 11, 8, 11 K’s over his last 4 starts. He got roughed up against the Yankees  2 starts ago, but was able to rack up 11 K’s and made it for a little bit more respectable start even though he allowed 6 ER. He’s allowed a .216 average against Boston hitters with a 36.9% strikeout rate against their hitters. Boston is rolling at the plate of late, but Cease is a guy who can slow them down. I do love his upside here. ALL FORMATS

Nick Pivetta @ CWS

Pivetta has been rolling over his last 3 starts. He threw a complete game 1 run game against Houston in his last start, while striking out 8 hitters against a really good offense. Last time he faced the White Sox he went 6 scoreless innings with 8 K’s. After struggling to start the season, Pivetta has come back nicely with QS in 3 straight starts after not getting 6 innings over his first 5 starts. There is risk here with Pivetta, but he’s allowed just 2 ER over his last 3 starts. GPP

Zac Gallen vs KCR

Gallen has been one of the better starters for the Diamondbacks this season. In 7 starts, he has allowed just 5 ER all season while getting a strikeout per inning. Gallen has gone 6+ innings in half of his starts this year too. Over the last couple of weeks, KC has a 24.4% strikeout rate against RHP. This game went crazy last night with runs scored, but I do think Gallen will slow down the KC offense that to me isn’t very dangerous. I love the way he’s pitched this year so far and has a good matchup at home here too. ALL FORMATS

Corbin Burnes @ SDP

Tough matchup with the Padres, but if he can get around Machado and Hosmer I think he has a good one here. Burnes has looked pretty good most of the year this year but did struggle in his last start against the Braves. SD comes into this game with a 22.7% strikeout rate against RHP, 10th highest in the MLB in that span. Burnes does have elite strikeout stuff if he can keep the ball in the yard. He has allowed more than 2 ER in just 2 starts this season and has 3 games with over 10 K’s this year so far. ALL FORMATS

Chris Bassitt @ SFG

Bassitt has looked really good in 3 road starts this season. He’s pitched to a 0.51 ERA with a strikeout per inning and allowing a .159 OBP. Meaning he’s not allowing runners on base. Last time he faced SF he did struggle and allowed the most runs he has allowed all season. I like the upside for him with the strikeouts in the bottom of this San Fran order too. He isn’t a huge strikeout guy, but he does get about 1 per inning. ALL FORMATS

 

PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN

1. Dylan Cease
2. Zac Gallen
3. Corbin Burnes
4. Sonny Gray
5. Walker Buehler
6. Nick Pivetta
7. Chris Bassitt
8. Framber Valdez
9. Kevin Gausman
10. Kyle Gibson

    

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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate

1. New York Yankees (struggling of late, but have seen Zimmermann 3 times already this season and roughed him up for 5 ER last time)
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. Los Angeles Angels
6. Philadelphia Phillies
7. Baltimore Orioles

 

DINGER OF THE DAY

Mike Trout

Mike Trout is an absolute beast against the Texas Rangers. Outside of hitting against the Mariners, Trout has some of his best games against the Rangers. Over his career, he has 43 Home-Runs against the Rangers and is hitting a crisp .333 with an OPS of 1.083. Trout also is 3-8 off Dunning with 2 HR in his career too. He loves to hit against Texas and I think he hits another HR tonight.

My 2nd call of the night would be J.T. Realmuto. He’s struggled of late, but is 10-26 in his career against Max Fried with 3 HR and 2 doubles.

 

 

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