What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest NFL plays at each position for DK and see if they are worth everything you are paying for them. Cash games are all about finding value and squeezing every last drop out of the salary you are using. Cash is also about understanding what you are building for, our goal here is to be better than 50% of the field minimum, we are not trying to win GPPs here.
When that is understood it makes building your LU easier because you begin to understand that you are trying to make sure your DFS build is based around value and pricing and not upside and stacks, you are going to let other players make the mistake of being cute and severely crippling their LU and over the course of the season you are going to be up $$$ from letting others hurt themselves and putting yourself in positions to succeed. Having good projections is a BIG boost as well.
SPEAKING OF GOOD NFL PROJECTIONS:
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QBs:
Trey Lance ($4800): Lance is projecting for well over 4x his price and no other QB is remotely close to that. He has a nice friendly matchup with Houston so there really is not much to think about here with the matchup and the projection being so stellar, not to mention a $4800 price tag. It is Trey Lance week and there is no question about it. SMASH
Josh Allen ($8000): I just do not see a reason to deviate away from Lance in cash this week at that price, he allows you to get up to too many good players that Josh Allen just will not let happen. PASS
Jalen Hurts ($6600): I would be very willing to go back to Hurts again even after a lackluster performance due to game script last week but as mentioned there is no reason to get off of Lance in cash games. PASS
Pivots: None
RBs:
David Montgomery ($6500): The Giants are a dead team walking and a game script dream for Montgomery as Matt Nagy will never pass the ball if he doesn’t have to. His passing volume could end up being limited this week but regardless he should be a lock for 20 touches in a game that favors him. SMASH
Sony Michel ($5800): No Akers and Henderson once again so all signals are pointing directly at Week 17 being Sony season. He is the best projected back in FPP$ and the Rams are implied to put up 26.5 points this week against the Ravens. There are more than a few good options this week at RB but I wouldn’t be looking to risk the field lapping me if it ends up being Sony week as he should be coming in with heavy ownership in the cash streets. SMASH
Jonathan Taylor ($9000): With Lance, getting up to Taylor is by no means a problem, the problem is actually that there are quite a few decent options at RB this week with 20 touch upside and you don’t have to pay $9000 to get them. He projects well and is a good play but I think it is unnecessary to pay $9000 for his volume when other RBs could potentially see it that are 30%+ cheaper. PASS
Pivots: Ronald Jones will be handling the lion share in Tampas backfield once again and gets about as friendly of a matchup you could possibly get by going up against the Jets. He should be a lock to see 20+ touches. Rashaad Penny draws the Lions this week and has a chokehold on the Seattle backfield touches and is going way overlooked this slate because he is not projecting as well as he should. Pete Carroll has shown nothing but willingness to run it into the ground and I do not know why that would change this week.
WRs:
Antonio Brown ($6100): With Mike Evans back I do not think he will see 50%(!) of the team’s targets like last week but he should still be in line for a great fantasy role with Evans still being banged up and Chris Godwin out of the picture. He should be locked and loaded into your LU this week as he is the best-projected WR in FPP% by a decent margin. SMASH
Cooper Kupp ($9500): Trey Lance lived so we could keep locking in Cooper Kupp into our fantasy LUs. Baltimore’s secondary struggles and Kupp has averaged over 12 targets a week over his last 5 games. If Lance wasn’t in the picture I could see debating the price tag but that is not the case so we will continue to ride Cooper Kupp into the promised land. SMASH
Cole Beasley ($4900): Before the bout with the COVID list, Beasley has scored less than 10 DK points in 5 out of his last 6 games and now Gabriel David and Isiah McKenzie could be demanding bigger roles, I am just not looking to go here. PASS
Pivots: The Patriots are implied 29 points against the Jaguars and Jakobi Meyers is the only real wide-out healthy for them besides Kendrick Bourne if you would consider him one, at only $5100 he is well worth the look to me. DJ Moore has seen double-digit targets each of the last 4 games and has gone down in price in each week following that volume. The Panthers are by no means a sexy team to target for fantasy but double-digit targets from a talented WR at $5600 isn’t something you should just write off completely.
TEs:
Dallas Goedert ($5100): Goedert has done a better job of becoming a key component of the offense with no Ertz over the past few weeks and I do not know why that trend shouldn’t continue with Philly’s run game being banged up beyond belief. If you have the salary here (which I do not think you should) I don’t hate it but I have a min price TE in mind for my build this week. SMASH
Cole Kmet ($3400): I would rather just save the $900 and play the min price play rather than play no ceiling Cole Kmet. PASS
Rob Gronkowski ($6200): I will consider last week a fluke as it was really only him and AB from the actual skill group running routes and he somehow wound up with only 2 targets. I expect him to be much more involved against the Jets, a team that he has had plenty of success going up against historically. Unlike Goedert who I would only play if the salary fell that way, I do not mind trying your luck at going up and getting Gronk this week, despite the min price TE we will finally talk about. SMASH
Pivots: Jared Cook is out and Donald Parham is on the injured reserve which opens up the opportunity for Stephen Anderson to shine. I am not expecting a huge game from him but at min price and him hopefully seeing 4-6 targets I am more than willing to take a stab at him as he and Lance allow whatever you want to happen build-wise.
Defense:
Saints ($3400): Despite how bad Sam Darnold is, I want the Bears who are cheaper and get to face some combo of Jake Fromm and Mike Glennon. PASS
Bears ($3200): Lock and load the Bears this week, as mentioned they are playing the worst QB duo starting this week and if one of them was announced the starter they’d be the worst starting QB this week. Fantasy defenses have had a field day against the Giants recently and I do not expect that trend to break here. SMASH
Chargers ($3100): If you need the $100 I do not mind playing the Chargers against Drew Lock but if you have the salary I highly advise you to go up and get the Bears. SMASH
Pivots: None
Follow me on Twitter @LowOwnedWR with any questions! As always, run hot, Space Cowboy!