Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Dec 22, 2021; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Bogdan Bogdanovic (13) drives against Orlando Magic guard Gary Harris (14) during the second quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
PG/SF LeBron James $10800
LAL vs BKN
Merry Christmas and happy holidays for whatever you celebrate! Basketball is a Christmas Day tradition. The games are spread out throughout the day but this does make it difficult to build lineups. With the number of players getting ruled out every day, late swap could be a crucial part of winning. Make sure you are able to edit your lineups if you are celebrating the holidays. It appears that James Harden will be the only star available for the Nets. He should carry the highest ownership among the 10k+ players. LeBron generally is not chalk no matter who is missing from this Lakers team. Anthony Davis is out for a while. James has put up outstanding performances despite his team struggling to win games. With this game being at home, under the new Crypto Arena name, and on Christmas, LeBron should keep his team in this game.
Taking Davis off the floor, James has a 30.8% usage rate averaging 1.44FPM. With no AD, the Lakers use James as their center for stretches throughout the game. The Nets do not have an imposing center so the Lakers should go to the James at center lineup again today. Since he would be playing closer to the basket, he would have increased rebounding opportunities. Nikola Jokic is not on this slate. He is the best pay-up option on just about every slate he is on. If Giannis Antetokounmpo is not on a limit, he should take on some ownership. The Bucks are not the most transparent team when it comes to disclosing info. The Celtics have defended Giannis pretty well when it comes to fantasy purposes. James is the preferred option after Harden on today’s slate.
C Mitchell Robinson $4800
NYK vs ATL
The Knicks are dealing with several players out due to health & safety protocols. One of them is Nerlens Noel. Robinson has stepped into the starting center role. I had some concerns about his playing time because Obi Toppin is back. This allows the Knicks to play Toppin at PF and move Randle to center. They also have Taj Gibson who can play both of those positions. Robinson played 25mins last game before fouling out. He was forced to exit early in the 3rd quarter due to foul trouble. Since the Knicks do have some different lineup combinations and Tom Thibodeau has not exactly been fond of Robinson, his minutes are not the safest. However, this is what keeps Robinson’s ownership low. The Knicks use the center position mostly for defense. Their offense does not involve the position a lot. Nerlens Noel is a 0.71FPM player this season. Robinson on the other hand is a lot more productive.
Robinson averages 0.90FPM. This is a small bump from his 0.87FPM average last season. He has the same defensive upside as Noel but rebounds better and is more aggressive on offense. The Hawks will be without Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu. This makes Gorgui Dieng the chalk center play of the slate at $3600. The Bucks will be returning to full strength with Bobby Portis and Giannis back. Even if their minutes are slightly limited, they have pretty much everyone available now. This takes DeMarcus Cousins out of play. The opportunity cost is much lower today because Jokic and Embiid are not on this slate. The knock to Robinson is that his game starts right at lock. Late swap could be huge for a slate like this where all the games are spread out and people will not be swapping as frequently due to the holiday.
PG/SG Bogdan Bogdanovic $4700
ATL @ NYK
I am not sure where Bogdanovic’s ownership will end up. Delon Wright and Cam Reddish are both probable. If they were to be ruled out, Bogdanovic likely is chalk. Since both are on track to play, Bogdanovic’s ownership probably will not be too high. He came off the bench the last two games since returning from injury. He has shot horribly going 6-26 including 2-14 from 3. This is expected as he missed almost a month. It is no surprise that he is rusty. He is too talented of a player to continue shooting like this. I will take the chance that he knocks down more shots today before the field rosters him after seeing it actually happen. There are a lot of shots available with Trae Young and several Hawks out for this game. Bogdanovic had a 37.9% usage rate last game against the 76ers. That is absurd. He should be 8k+ under these circumstances.
This may not be the best matchup for the Hawks. The Knicks play at the 4th-slowest pace but are ranked 20th in defensive efficiency. They are significantly worse this season compared to last season. Since the Hawks are missing multiple key players, Bogdanovic’s opportunity today outweighs the concerns of this matchup. Even though Wright and Reddish are probable, both of them were not able to return on Thursday. It is hard to see them playing at full health with just a day off. Reddish went to the locker room three times before finally being ruled out. The Hawks need bodies so they are going to tough it out. Bogdanovic could potentially start here because his workload is getting ramped up. I would prefer him to come off the bench to keep his ownership low as this game locks right at 9am PT. He is an excellent play in all formats.
PF James Johnson $3700
BKN @ LAL
Besides Dieng, nobody stands out below 4k right now. Royce O’Neale could be it but he sometimes picks up more ownership than expected since he is cheap. If he is chalk, we all know how that will turn out. Someone in this price range will put up 6x+. We will not know the Nets starting lineup until later in the day. I will go with James Johnson for now. The Nets are getting back some players but also losing some. Blake Griffin and Nicolas Claxton are the favorites to start with Johnson and Millsap as the backups. Nets usually do not run the starters heavy minutes besides Harden, Durant, and Mills. They were forced to recently because they only had 8-9 players. Johnson should have a solid role today to guard LeBron. He had been getting closing minutes even when the team was mostly healthy.
I am not expecting him to play over 25mins. He is a productive player when he is out there. His usage is low since he is sharing the court with stars. Johnson averages 0.83FPM. He does a little bit of everything which gives him a nice floor as long as he gets mins. The Lakers have looked terrible to start the year. Their defense is weak but now is even weaker with no AD for 4 weeks. This is someone who has put up strong fantasy performances before. I am not saying that he is guaranteed to be good. There probably is a low chance that he is a DNP since he has been out due to conditioning. I do believe he will play since the Nets are shorthanded and his versatility works well in a matchup against LeBron. The risk is worth it because he is going to be single-digit owned. He has the upside to win a tournament. The options down here are not that appealing. If we get more injury news, be sure to swap Johnson out.
Just missed the cut: Jayson Tatum, RJ Barrett (questionable), Talen Horton-Tucker, Royce O’Neale, Hassan Whiteside, Lance Stephenson, Paul Millsap
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…
Use code: WILL for 10% Discount on VIP or Core 4 Memberships
