Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
PG/SG Bradley Beal $8500
WAS @ SAC
These NBA slates are getting harder and harder to break down the night before with all these questionable players. There will be a lot of moving pieces on this 11 game slate. With Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo out, their teammates will be the chalk. Similarly priced players will carry less ownership because of it. Jrue Holiday and Jalen Brunson will occupy most of the guard positions. It has been a while since Bradley Beal put up a monster game. His price continues to drop. Kyle Kuzma is listed as questionable for today’s game. Most of the time, questionable players due to health and safety protocols end up playing, If Kuzma is active, even fewer people will go to Beal. Yes, Kuzma is going to take up more usage than Deni Avidija. However, Beal is without a doubt still the #1 option on the Wizards.
The Kings are the giving tree. They are still struggling mightily after firing Luke Walton. This makes this a prime spot for Beal to put up a 50+Dkpt game. Sacramento gives it up to every position. Against SGs, they are allowing the most DKpts to that position. Looking at how they allow the most fantasy points, it is because they allow the most real pts, the 4th-most rebs, and the 3rd-most asts. Beal’s peripherals should be elevated in this matchup. The Kings play at the 3rd-fastest pace and have the 5th-worst defensive efficiency rating in the league. Target Sacramento on every slate. It is even nicer because Beal is more expensive than the chalk guards. His ownership should end up at the most, in the teens.
PG/SG Darius Garland $7900
CLE vs HOU
Another guard that is priced just a bit more expensive than Brunson and Jrue is Garland. He had the gift of the Kings defense on in which he went off for 50.5DKpts. Without Collin Sexton and with Ricky Rubio coming off the bench, it is the Garland show. This matchup is not much different from Sacramento. Houston plays at the fastest pace in the league with the 7th-worst defensive efficiency rating. They allow the 4th-most DKpts to opposing PGs. Garland is usually a bit cheaper. However, he has been amazing this season. He is leading this Cavs team to a top seed in the east. Combine that with how the ownership will shake out, Garland is going to be low-owned in an excellent spot for a ceiling game.
With Sexton off the floor, Garland has a team-high 26.8% usage rate averaging 1.07FPM. Based off of that rate, he is not expensive. There will be better point/$ plays but of course, those will come at higher ownership. Many people had their doubts about how a team with multiple 7footers was going to work, me included. However, they have made it work better than expected. Even without Sexton, this team has been excellent. What works in Garland’s favor is that these big men do not initiate the offense. This forces Garland into a huge role. They play slow and are an elite defensive team. This makes just about every game a pace-up spot for them. This is as good as it gets for the Cavs. Houston has been hot as of late so they should keep the game close.
PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr. $7200
MEM @ POR
Kristaps Porzingis should take up the PF ownership today. Tobias Harris would get some looks as well if Joel Embiid is out. People like to play JJJ but Memphis has been on quite a few small slates. JJJ has not exactly broken a slate. Ja Morant has missed some games and JJJ has busted a few times. With this being a huge slate, JJJ could be in the teens today. That of course depends on who is ruled out later today. Buckle up and expect plenty of news. It is no secret that JJJ benefits immensely with Morant out. He is now tied with Dillon Brooks with a 30.4% usage rate. JJJ averages 1.30FPM. That is a 4.8% usage bump and +0.16FPM boost with Morant off the floor. At $7200, it is rare to find a player that produces at that high of a rate for this cheap.
The biggest risk for JJJ is foul trouble. He has been better at not fouling this season, but it still remains a concern. With Steven Adams playing, it keeps JJJ from playing the center position. Having to guard Larry Nance Jr. is a lot easier than Jusuf Nurkic. Though it would be nice to see JJJ getting center mins for increased fantasy point production, he should close at the 5 in a competitive game. Nance is a low-usage player known for his defense and athleticism. JJJ should be able to stay out of foul trouble in this one but that risk still exists. This is one of the last games of the slate. That alone lowers his ownership. Damian Lillard is now back and this game is in Portland. This should be a competitive game. Portland has the 4th-worst defensive efficiency rating this season. Starting Nance is not going to fix this team’s problems.
PF Keldon Johnson $5600
SAS vs CHA
I thought about Caris LeVert. Since I wrote him up recently, I will go with someone else. I do like the Pacers as they face the shorthanded Bucks. In addition to the Kings, the Hornets are also fantasy gold. Besides the last game, the Hornets play fast and keep games competitive. One of the most annoying things about DFS is rostering players that are in blowouts. This game has a slate-high 227 total with the Spurs favored by 3pts. CHarlotte is playing at the 4th-fastest pace and has the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league. Against PFs, they allow the 4th-most DKpts. This includes the 2nd-most rebs to the position. This is significant for a player like Johnson because he relies on scoring and rebounding. As a team, the Hornets have the worst rebounding rate in the league.
It is important to note that Mason Plumlee could make his return for this game. That is not going to move the needle because the Hornets were a poor rebounding team with him playing. The Spurs are getting healthier. Johnson himself dealt with an ankle injury but has quickly recovered. Before getting hurt, he played between 34-38mins. It is going to be a bit difficult for him to see this consistency in playing time. He nearly played the entire 1st quarter last game but played less than 3mins in his 2nd quarter stint. Since he is in a terrific matchup today, he just needs to start well to play more mins. Johnson is not a popular target in fantasy. However, that means he will be low-owned. He has a 40+DKpt ceiling and has as good of a shot as he will ever have in a matchup against the Hornets.
Just missed the cut: Jonas Valanciunas, Malcolm Brogdon, Terry Rozier, Caris LeVert, Dillon Brooks, Spencer Dinwiddie, Lauri Markkanen, Ricky Rubio, Daniel Gafford, Darius Bazley
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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