What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest NFL plays at each position for DK and see if they are worth everything you are paying for them. Cash games are all about finding value and squeezing every last drop out of the salary you are using. Cash is also about understanding what you are building for, our goal here is to be better than 50% of the field minimum, we are not trying to win GPPs here.
When that is understood it makes building your LU easier because you begin to understand that you are trying to make sure your DFS build is based around value and pricing and not upside and stacks, you are going to let other players make the mistake of being cute and severely crippling their LU and over the course of the season you are going to be up $$$ from letting others hurt themselves and putting yourself in positions to succeed. Having good projections is a BIG boost as well.
SPEAKING OF GOOD NFL PROJECTIONS:
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QBs:
Justin Herbert ($7200): Herbert is in a tremendous spot against the Texans but is missing 2 of his top weapons in Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams, I do not view that as a big enough narrative to make me want to take him out of my player pool but considering that and the fact the other 2 options on the this list are cheaper and in good spots of their own, I am out on Herbert in cash this week. PASS
Matthew Stafford ($6700): In 3 of his last 4 games he has at least 250 yards and 3 TDs so I think $6700 is too low of a price, especially against Minnesota in a dome. It will come down to how much salary you have remaining to decide between him and Hurts who to me are the only two viable cash options at QB this week. SMASH
Jalen Hurts ($6400): As mentioned, it is either Hurts or Stafford this week. I am leaning towards the Hurts side as his rushing floor and a matchup against the Giants is nice and the $300 you’ll save from going to him from Stafford makes a big difference in your ability to build this week in the optimal structure. SMASH
Pivots: None
RBs:
James Robinson ($5900): Robinson saw 18 carries and 6 targets his first week without Urban Meyer and I do not know why this type of workload wont be sustainable as he is the clear cut best back on the team and is viewed as such. His price is still cheap relative to his volume and he gets a nice matchup against the Jets this week to boot. SMASH
Ronald Jones ($5100): Tampa is down Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but most importantly for Jones, Leonard Fournette. At only $5100 and that many skill players down, Jones should be in line for plenty of usage, which is why he is the #2 ranked RB in FPP$ this week. He is lock and load as far as I am concerned. SMASH
Josh Jacobs ($6000): Josh Jacobs is more expensive than the other two guys on this list and is not nearly in as good of a spot as them. I like his usage with their backfield being depleted but he is just not worth the stab with WAY better value backs on the slate. PASS
Pivots: No Austin Ekeler means increased usage for Justin Jackson who is only $4200 and is far and away the best value back and value in general on the slate. It is a 3 RB build type of week in cash.
WRs:
Cooper Kupp ($9100): With the backs you SHOULD be playing this week being so cheap, you are going to have plenty of salary to spend on WRs this week, none who are better than Cooper Kupp. He has been the fantasy MVP this whole season and has no signs of slowing and is still good value at a steep $9100 price tag. SMASH
Tyreek Hill ($8400): Kansas City is implied the 2nd most points on the slate and as it stands now Hill should not have to compete with Kelce this week for targets as he does not look like he will clear the COVID list. As mentioned you will have plenty of salary so fitting Kupp and Hill will not be a problem and I like taking a shot on Hill this week with him looking to have even a bigger share of the targets than he has been boasting already. SMASH
Justin Jefferson ($8100): Jefferson is the odd man out from the expensive WR group here. Thielen is returning this week so that should slightly hinder his target share and the other two guys just have more going for them to me as they have consistently shown the ability to perform well at these price levels. PASS
Pivots: No Mike Evans and Chris Godwin makes $4900 Antonio Brown a lock and load as he is tied with Justin Jackson as the best value on the slate boasting a 3.48 FPP$ rating.
TEs:
Rob Gronkowski ($6200): Gronk should also be in line for a good increase in volume with no Evans and Godwin. If you are willing to cut out one of Hill or Kupp you will easily be able to fit Gronk. However I do feel like he is appropriately priced even with the uptick in volume. SMASH
Mark Andrews ($7000): The Ravens will be down to their 3rd string QB, Josh Johnson, this week and I do not want to pay $7000 for a pass catcher who’s QB may not be able to sustain any meaningful scoring drives. PASS
Kyle Pitts ($5800): Pitts has not scored over 12 points since Week 7 and it does not look like he is going to start eating up any of those targets Ridley left anytime soon. PASS
Pivots: Cole Kmet has averaged 8 targets a game over the last 4 weeks and is helpful for allowing you to pay up for the stud WRs. Jared Cook should be inline for more targets with no Ekeler and Williams, him and Kmet are the best value TEs on the slate and I would prefer Cook if salary was not an issue.
Defense:
Eagles ($3600): Too expensive considering the Jags and Falcons have just as good of matchups. PASS
Falcons ($2600): The Lions were already horrendous and now will be playing without Jared Goff. Falcons are far and away the best value defense on the slate. SMASH
Jaguars ($2700): The Jets will be missing all of their starting WRs this week and Zach Wilson is a turnover machine. I think I would just want to stay with the field and play the Falcons in cash on this one but the Jags are for sure viable. SMASH
Pivots: None
Follow me on Twitter @LowOwnedWR with any questions! As always, run hot, Space Cowboy!