What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest NFL plays at each position for DK and see if they are worth everything you are paying for them. Cash games are all about finding value and squeezing every last drop out of the salary you are using. Cash is also about understanding what you are building for, our goal here is to be better than 50% of the field minimum, we are not trying to win GPPs here.
When that is understood it makes building your LU easier because you begin to understand that you are trying to make sure your DFS build is based around value and pricing and not upside and stacks, you are going to let other players make the mistake of being cute and severely crippling their LU and over the course of the season you are going to be up $$$ from letting others hurt themselves and putting yourself in positions to succeed. Having good projections is a BIG boost as well.
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QBs:
Kyler Murray ($7900): Kyler is getting the Lions and has looked as good as advertised since he has been back averaging over 8 rushing attempts per game since return as well as 60 yards. Them blowing out Detroit and him not playing some of if not all of the 4th is in play but I am willing to roll the dice on him in an amazing matchup. SMASH
Dak Prescott ($6500): This is as cheap as Dak has been since Week 1 but for a fair reason as he scored over 20 points just twice in his last 6 games. The issue with Dak is that the Cowboys will not push the pace if they have the lead, if they are up they are more run-heavy and if down more pass-heavy. It is hard to see them trailing against the Giants so with no reason for him to have to perform at peak I am not betting on him to perform at peak. PASS
Josh Allen ($8100): Despite Carolina’s offensive struggles they still have an amazing defense. For $200 less I would rather just take Kyler against the Lions instead of Allen vs the Panthers. PASS
Pivots: Tua Tagovailoa is only $5700 against the Jets and is the #1 QB in PP$ but a pretty wide margin. No Waddle who has been his favorite target is worrisome but at QB it is clear to me that you should be going Tua or Kyler this week depending on how you build.
RBs:
James Robinson ($5400): New coach says he is their guy and I am buying it as he should be their guy. $5400 against the Texans is a complete no-brainer for JRob this week. Lock and load. SMASH
Najee Harris ($7800): With the COVID stuff this week and fewer games on the main slate there is a real lack of studs this week. If you do not play Najee you are more than likely paying up at TE for Kittle as they are basically the same price. I am not looking to pay peak price for Kittle so I would rather just role out Najee as he is the only stud RB worth playing to me. SMASH
Myles Gaskin ($5600): Before missing last week on the COVID list he was averaging almost 20 touches a game (carries + targets) over the last 3 weeks and now gets a game where Tua is down his favorite passing option and Miami is almost a 10 point favorite. I think he is in line for a good bit of work this week as long as he goes and he is very well worth the play. You have to play him AND James Robinson if rostered, do not play him over James in cash games. SMASH
Pivots: None
WRs:
DeVante Parker ($4300): No Waddle should mean a better workload for Parker and against the Jets, I am hopeful we can see flashes of what he was doing with Fitzpatrick. He is pretty far out in front as the #1 WR in FPP$ this week and the salary relief is valuable to go up and get your studs. SMASH
Stefon Diggs ($7700): 2, that is the number of 20+ point games Stefon Diggs has seen over the past 7 weeks. I love Diggs but he just has not been worth it at this price this season and I am not looking to buy it against the Panthers stout secondary. PASS
Devante Adams ($8900): Back to what I said about there being really no one to pay up for this slate, Adams is the one guaranteed guy to go out and get this slate with a high price tag. He has scored over 20 points each of his last 3 games and broke over 100 yards in each of them. Baltimore looks to be missing Lamar this week as well so sustaining drives for them should be a problem which means more time on the field for Adams. SMASH
Pivots: With no Emmanuel Sanders, Gabriel Davis stepped up and saw 8 targets last week and scored just over 15 points with them. At only $3700 he looks to be a great value as the Bills throw the ball nonstop and he should be on the field for most of the passing plays in this game. DJ Moore has seen some questionable QB play to say the least but is only $6000 and has seen double-digit targets in each of his last 2 games and the Panthers should be playing from behind a good bit here.
TEs:
George Kittle ($7500): As mentioned in the Najee write-up, I think Kittle is a great play with no Mitchell because Deebo should be seeing less passing work again and he becomes their clear-cut #1 target. However, I just have no interest in buying the top on him nor do I have interest in paying up at the TE position when I do not have to. PASS
Mike Gesicki ($5000): With no Waddle he should be in line for more targets my problem is that he cannot run block to save his life so if Miami gets a lead and decides to rely on Gaskin, Gesicki might not even see the field. I am personally looking to pay down at TE this week so Gesicki is a no-go for me. PASS
Zach Ertz ($5400): No Hopkins should be helpful to his target share but same as Gesicki I am not looking to a good portion of my salary on a TE if I do not have to. PASS
Pivots: James O’Shaugnessy is only $3200 against the Texans on an Urban Meyer-less Jaguars team. I expect Lawrence to have one of his most efficient games yet and I still expect him to rely heavily on his TE. James also eases the difficulty of getting Kyler and Adams by a fair margin.
Defense:
Dolphins ($3700): The two defenses listed below here perform a lot better on the FPP$ side and are a fair bit cheaper. PASS
Bills ($3100): If you have the salary to spare I do not mind going Bills over Jags in this spot as Buffalo is in a must-win game and the Panthers QB situation is horrendous. SMASH
Jaguars ($2800): The Jaguars are the #1 defense in FPP$ and allow you a nice RB/DEF combo with James Robinson. I think the Bills have the better floor against the Panthers but I would not be trying to move around $300 to make sure you get the Bills over them, if the Jags fit, play them.
Pivots: None
Follow me on Twitter @LowOwnedWR with any questions! As always, run hot, Space Cowboy!