What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest NFL plays at each position for DK and see if they are worth everything you are paying for them. Cash games are all about finding value and squeezing every last drop out of the salary you are using. Cash is also about understanding what you are building for, our goal here is to be better than 50% of the field minimum, we are not trying to win GPPs here.
When that is understood it makes building your LU easier because you begin to understand that you are trying to make sure your DFS build is based around value and pricing and not upside and stacks, you are going to let other players make the mistake of being cute and severely crippling their LU and over the course of the season you are going to be up $$$ from letting others hurt themselves and putting yourself in positions to succeed. Having good projections is a BIG boost as well.
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QBs:
Justin Herbert ($7100): With them being down Keenan Allen and facing Jake Fromm and the Giants, I do not see Herbert having to go gung-ho passing the ball this week as I see them feeding Ekeler in this game as I do not envision the Giants remotely being able to sustain drives. I would be looking at the value in the pass catchers here more so than looking at Herbert. PASS
Cam Newton ($5400): They just fired Joe Brady who was the one in the coaching staff with the air-it out approach and Cam looked horrendous against the Dolphins. Despite the good matchup and price, there is another cheap rushing QB who I am looking to take a run at this week. PASS
Josh Allen ($7800): If I am paying up at QB this week it is Josh Allen, not Tom Brady. I think the passing attack from the Bills in this high total game will have better odds of succeeding than the Buccaneers do. They were willing to air it out in a blizzard so the matchup against Tampa who passes above expectation more than any team in the league should be a complete air show. This game also boasts the highest implied total on the slate so fantasy points should be expected. SMASH
Pivots: My personal favorite QB for cash on the slate is Taysom Hill who is currently only $5600 and gets a matchup against the lowly Jets. He attempted 11 rushes last week and was able to crack 100 yards and attempted a pass just over 40 times. I do not expect the passing volume to be as heavy this week but the rushing floor and the good matchup are enough to have me more than intrigued.
RBs:
Antonio Gibson ($6000): This one solely depends on if McKissic suits up or not as last week without him Gibson saw 28 total touches. Luckily if McKissic is a no-go we will know prior to lock as WFT plays at 1:00 on Sunday. Monitor the news and if he cannot go I am loading in Gibson here. SMASH (if no McKissic)
Javonte Williams ($5900): Sadly we will not have the same benefit monitoring the Gordon news as we do the Gibson news as the Broncos play in the 4:00 games this week. My play with this one is that if we know McKissic isn’t going to suit up we go Gibson over Williams and if McKissic does suit up we roll the dice on Williams as I think the Broncos coaching staff after watching his talent shine last week are going to be hard-pressed to make it a complete 50/50 split between him and Gordon going forward. Not to mention an incredible matchup against the Lions. SMASH
Leonard Fournette ($7400): I love the total in this game but with Fournette seeing his highest price of the year and this game looking to be an air-raid from both sides I am not looking to buy the top on Lenny this week. PASS
Pivots: There is no Kenyan Drake or Jalen Richard this week to steal touches from Josh Jacobs meaning he should have a full-on bellcow role this week for the Raiders. They also draw the Chiefs who like a lot of forward-thinking teams basically beg you to run the ball against them. Jacobs also saw 9 targets last week and I am expecting a lot of passing work from him in this game as the Raiders should be trailing. With the soft matchup against the Giants, I am expecting it to be the Austin Ekeler show as there is no reason to have to go full air-raid here, especially with no Keenan Allen. I am expecting them to be more run-heavy as long as they come out with an early lead.
WRs:
DJ Moore ($6200): Despite the good matchup and cheap price I just cannot buy into DJ Moore this week with how poor Cam has looked and me expecting them to take a more run-heavy approach with no Joe Brady. PASS
Stefon Diggs ($8100): If we are being fully honest here I do not know what Stefon Diggs has done this year to warrant an over $8000 price tag. He has amassed over 100 yards just twice this year and while this is an amazing spot to make the third time I would rather go down to Beasley for exposure to the Bills passing game in my cash line as I really like Ekeler this week and fitting 2 guys over $8000 is a tough task to accomplish without making some less optimal plays in the rest of your build. PASS
Mike Williams ($6000): I know I have boasted the Chargers rushing the ball twice already but Williams at $6000 with no Allen is too good to ignore. He should see a nice boost in target share this week and the matchup is soft. Before the Chargers can coast it out they have to put up points first and I think they’ll go more run-heavy in the later parts of this game so hopefully, the passing attack can start out strong and put them ahead and Williams gets a good piece of it in the process.
Pivots: I am done fading Hunter Renfrow, he has seen 9 or more targets in 4 of their last 5 games and has been doing good things with that volume and has shown no signs of slowing down as he has scored over 17 points in 4 of those 5 games as well. Dallas boasts the 3rd highest team total on the slate and Washington has been a good team to play WRs against all year, at only $5900, I am willing to once again take a stab at Amari Cooper. The Titans have no real healthy WRs and get a nice soft matchup against the Jaguars this week, with Julio Jones returning I think it is safe to assume he should easily be the #1 target in this offense and he is only $5400.
TEs:
James O’Shaughnessy ($2900): With Dan Arnold on the IR and Lawrence showing a heavy reliance on his TEs in his rookie season I am willing to take a stab on James this week if you need the $ to get up to something more pricy you like. SMASH
Austin Hooper ($3400): With Njoku being on the injury report and the Browns lacking pass catchers I can see Hooper getting a boost in this game. However, I do like O’Shaugnessy more as he is cheaper and there is another TE I will get into on an offense that looks a lot better than Cleveland’s who is also cheaper that I like more as well. PASS
Mark Andrews ($5900): The Ravens are not even implied 20 points this week and Andrews doesn’t even rank in the top 10 in TE FPP$, I cannot see a reason to play him in your cash LU this week. PASS
Pivots: Another beneficiary of no Keenan Allen should be Jared Cook who is only $3200 and is now the #1 TE in FPP$ for the week as the projection model is liking him a lot more with no Allen.
Defense:
Seahawks ($3100): The two defenses listed below also have good matchups but the difference is they are both cheaper and actually good fantasy defenses. If you have the salary for them at the end of your build I am fine with going them instead of leaving money on the table but if you are losing a position player you like to play them you are going too far. PASS
Panthers ($2800): They have at least 2 sacks and a forced turnover in each of their last 4 games and I am expecting them to be a lot more run-heavy with no Joe Brady meaning Cam shouldn’t be getting ample opportunity to put them in bad spots this week as weeks prior. Not to mention the Falcons have only scored 20+ points once in the last 4 weeks. SMASH
Browns ($2700): Only once in the last 6 weeks have the Browns let up more than 20 points. They also played Lamar and the Ravens prior to their bye last week and had 4 interceptions and 2 sacks, so it is safe to say we have seen them perform well in this exact spot, it also doesn’t hurt that they are at home for this matchup either. $2700 is a ridiculous price for the Browns defense. SMASH
Pivots: None
Follow me on Twitter @LowOwnedWR with any questions! As always, run hot, Space Cowboy!