What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest NFL plays at each position for DK and see if they are worth everything you are paying for them. Cash games are all about finding value and squeezing every last drop out of the salary you are using. Cash is also about understanding what you are building for, our goal here is to be better than 50% of the field minimum, we are not trying to win GPPs here.
When that is understood it makes building your LU easier because you begin to understand that you are trying to make sure your DFS build is based around value and pricing and not upside and stacks, you are going to let other players make the mistake of being cute and severely crippling their LU and over the course of the season you are going to be up $$$ from letting others hurt themselves and putting yourself in positions to succeed. Having good projections is a BIG boost as well.
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QBs:
Justin Herbert ($6700): Herbert looks to be in another favorable game script and game environment this week as the Chargers seem to only be able to go as far as Herbert will let them. He has passed for over 300 yards in three of his last 4 and has been averaging over 30 rushing yards a game over that span as well showing he has a great floor, a floor the merits him being worth more than $6700. SMASH
Tom Brady ($7200): Brady is on a cold streak from the fantasy perspective as he has only 6 touchdowns and has totaled up 4 interceptions over Tampa’s last three contests, but on this slate, he gets a matchup with the Falcons that I feel like cannot be ignored. Tom absolutely toasted them for 5 touchdowns in their Week 2 matchup and outside of the Falcons’ easy matchup against the Jaguars, they have allowed at least 25 points in their previous 3 games while getting no pressure on the QB. With the good value backs on this slate you can easily to get up to Brady, the only issue is can the Falcons keep it competitive enough to keep him on the field the whole game. I am willing to risk it on that and see if he can torch them on the path to the Bucs decimation of the Falcons this week. SMASH
Derek Carr ($6000): With no Waller and a mediocre receiving core I am not looking to go to Carr this week as there are better options around him in his price range and with the build I see fit I do not think you need a low $6000 QB. PASS
Pivots: Gardner Minshew is stone-cold minimum price and gets the Jets this week if Hurts sits out like most expect. I do not love this play but he will allow you to easily get up to all the studs if you are willing to take a big risk at QB.
RBs:
Antonio Gibson ($5700): With no McKissic, the volume boost to Gibson is likely too big to ignore as he is going to have the role that most of us expected him to have all season. At only $5700 and him being in line to see all the work out of the backfield, I am not missing this one. SMASH
Eli Mitchell ($6000): Mitchell has been an absolute stud since recovering from being dinged up since becoming the lead back, getting 27 carries in each of the last two games. He is now getting receiving work which could put him in line to be seeing over 30 looks a game between his rushing attempts and targets. Any back with that type of workload should not be $6000. SMASH
James Connor ($5900): Since Edmonds went down in Week 9, Conner has been seeing about 20 total touches a game. What this one comes down to me is if Kyler goes out there this week as that is a huge boost to the ceiling of all Cardinals skill players. Luckily they are playing at the start of the slate this week so we will be able to monitor this one without speculation. If Murray does not end up going he is the odd man out for me with the value RBs who are seeing an increased workload but if he goes I give him the slight edge over Mitchell to be my RB flex play. SMASH (If Kyler plays)
Pivots: Dan Campbell and the coaching staff want to run the ball into the ground and with no Swift this week, Jamal Williams looks to see a big increase in touches, and at only $5400 he is projecting to be the best value back on the slate by a wide margin. Jonathan Taylor is in an amazing spot against the Texans, which is a spot where I can see the Colts relying on him and running him as much as possible, if you take the value QB approach you are doing it so you can play Taylor.
WRs:
Chris Godwin ($6600): There is not much else to say to me other than you have an offense that passes above expectation more than any team in the league and they get to play the Falcons who are one of the worst all-around teams in the NFL. Godwin is priced down from his previous high and most considered him a must-have last week at a higher price and a less juicy matchup so I don’t know what there is not to love about him this week. SMASH
Cooper Kupp ($9000): It is looking likely there will be no Henderson this week and Odell is already banged up which should mean a boost to an already volume hogging Kupp. It is not hard to get up to him this week with the value at RB and despite being $9000 he is the 3rd best WR on the slate in fantasy points per dollar. SMASH
Hunter Renfrow ($5800): There is another Raider who is going to be auto-loaded into our cash LU this week and I am not looking to run two guys from Las Vegas in my cash LU. PASS
Pivots: Devante Parker saw 11 targets in his return to action and gets to face the Giants this week and is the #1 WR in fantasy points per dollar.
TEs:
Foster Moreau ($2700): Last time Waller missed Moreau posted 6/60/1 on 6 targets and now with no Ruggs in the picture he should be in line for even more work. He is a no-brainer lock and load this week as he is projecting for 3.64x which is .5 better than the next best guy. It is Foster Moreau week and there is no debating it. SMASH
Rob Gronkowski ($5300): There is no reason to pay a premium at TE this week as if Moreau was priced accordingly for THIS week’s volume and floor he would easily be in the mid $4000s. PASS
Cole Kmet ($3600): We play Cole Kmet as a way to pay up for better players, Moreau is in line for more volume than him and offers way more upside and is almost $1000 less. No Kmet. PASS
Pivots:
Defense:
Dolphins ($3300): They get to go up against Mike Glennon this week and are the best fantasy point per dollar defense because of it. SMASH
Eagles ($3600): I know that Zach Wilson and the Jets are horrendous but so are the Giants and Mike Glennon so I would rather just save the $300 and go to the Dolphins. PASS
Colts ($3700): Out of the top 3 owned defenses opponents, I give the Texans the best odds to score the most points out of them, the Jets and the Giants. PASS
Pivots: Atlanta can barely do anything on offense and the Buccaneers defense is only $3500 and despite the shaky secondary they have the front 7 to make it very hard for Matt Ryan to do anything when it is already hard for him to do anything.
Follow me on Twitter @LowOwnedWR with any questions! As always, run hot, Space Cowboy!