What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest NFL plays at each position for DK and see if they are worth everything you are paying for them. Cash games are all about finding value and squeezing every last drop out of the salary you are using. Cash is also about understanding what you are building for, our goal here is to be better than 50% of the field minimum, we are not trying to win GPPs here.
When that is understood it makes building your LU easier because you begin to understand that you are trying to make sure your DFS build is based around value and pricing and not upside and stacks, you are going to let other players make the mistake of being cute and severely crippling their LU and over the course of the season you are going to be up $$$ from letting others hurt themselves and putting yourself in positions to succeed. Having good projections is a BIG boost as well.
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QBs:
Justin Herbert ($6600): Herbert has looked great this year as the new scheme has heavily benefited the passing attack but the Broncos are allowing the 3rd least fantasy points to QBs this year and playing at Mile High is a daunting task on its own. He is cheap enough to make playing him as a value viable but I am personally looking at paying down at QB this week. PASS
Tom Brady ($7600): The matchup is good but Brady has been priced up for it and his upside. At $7600 there is no meat left on the bone to get from him and I am not looking to pay a full fair price on a QB in cash games on any slate. PASS
Tyrod Taylor ($5300): With them playing the Jets I see how you can convince yourself he is a viable option here but the reality is he is not going to score 2 rushing TDs every week as a starter. The upside of the Texans offense is arguably the lowest in the league and while his $5300 price tag and good matchup can take you there, I just do not find it justifiable for him to be rostered given his heavy lacking of a good ceiling that could be hit at a remotely reasonable rate. PASS
Pivots: Cam Newton is only $5600 his first week after being the starter where he almost threw 30 passing attempts and rushed the ball 10 times. If you take out the games against arguably the two worst offenses in the league in the Jets and Texans, Miami has allowed teams to score at least 23 points in 7 out of 9 games. I think Cam’s floor this week is good and he has a much better ceiling than Tyrod.
RBs:
Dec 29, 2019; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey (22) runs after a reception in the third quarter. New Orleans Saints defensive end Trey Hendrickson (91) and defensive end Carl Granderson (96) defend on the play at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Christian McCaffrey ($9000): CMC is back and is projected as the 4th best FPP$ RB on the slate while no other RB in the top 10 in that metric is over $7000 in salary. I think he is the most obvious play to spend up on with your salary this week with Kupp being almost $10000. His floor is too good to pass up on on this slate with lack of safe plays. SMASH
AJ Dillon ($5900): We are currently waiting on confirmation of Aaron Jones playing. Hopefully we can get this news early enough as him playing in the late games is a problem, but if we get the news this one is simple, if Jones plays do not play Dillon and if he sits lock and load him at only $5900 as he will pro
bably jump to a top 3 RB in FPP$ if that ends up being the case. SMASH (baring Aaron Jones not playing)
Jonathan Taylor ($9100): I love Jonathan Taylor as he has been smashing on a week to week basis for almost the whole season, but at $9100 this is $800 more than he has been this whole season, so you are buying the top on him. The other issue is he has been in good game scripts recently and I think Tampa could force the Colts to air it out more this week which shouldn’t bode well for Taylor who has only seen over 5 or more targets in a game twice this season. PASS
Pivots: It may feel gross but if Dontrell Hilliard can keep up his targets up, which he should be able to do with no McNichols and AJ Brown, he should have no problem paying off his almost minimum price salary. It won’t be pretty but the volume should be there. Darrel Henderson is priced down a ton after a couple bad weeks and $5800 is just too cheap.
WRs:
Keenan Allen ($7400): Keenan isn’t even top 10 in FPP$ for WRs this week and playing in Denver is not beneficial to his floor or upside. I am not looking to pay over $7000 for someone in cash who I view as a big question mark to even hit 2x. PASS
Chris Godwin ($7000): Tampa is implied the most points on the slate and the Colts are expected to keep this one competitive. With AB remaining out the helps Godwin’s floor and upside a ton and being the cheapest of the two Tampa WRs, he is the one I am willing to take a stab on in my cash line this week. SMASH
Brandin Cooks ($5800): I feel as though we are grasping at his early season output too much as since Week 3 he has only hit 2x over his salary twice. The matchup against the Jets will be able to convince you to go back to him this week along with him being uber chalky and being second in FPP$ for WRs. In GPPs I would be looking to fade him but the downside of not having him in cash this week if he manages to produce could be a lot to overcome with a lot of the field gravitating towards him. SMASH
Pivots: Michael Pittman is a tremendous play at only $5600 with this game projecting to be a shootout and the Colts being forced to pass the ball, he is also the number one WR in FPP$ this week, so he will not make you leave any points on the board. Dez Fitzpatrick is only $3200 this week after getting 6 targets last week and AJ Brown remains out, his price tag is helpful to help you go up and get studs such as Devante Adams who is fourth in FPP$ this week despite being the second highest priced WR. Jamison Crowder gets a big boost at with no Corey Davis this week and at $4700 is a bargain for the volume he should get this week.
TEs:
Kyle Pitts ($6100): The Falcons have not scored a TD in 2 weeks now so despite them playing Jacksonville I am not looking to spend a good portion of my salary on anyone on this team this week. PASS
George Kittle ($6400): Paying up at TE is already sub optimal in cash and paying up for one who is on the cusp of not being in the top ten in FPP$ is even worse. You are leaving way too many points on the board in playing Kittle. PASS
Dallas Goedert ($4800): I think the models and players are still putting too much weight on Ertz leaving as the production for Goedert has not taken any real steps forward without him. This game does not have enough fantasy goodness for me and there is one TE who I am absolutely in love with in this price range. PASS
Pivots: Rob Gronkowski projects well and saw 8 targets in his return to action last week. He is arguably about $1000 too cheap and Tampa Bay is implied the most points on the slate. Everything is pointing to Gronk being a stellar play this week and he is a sure fire lock to be the TE in my cash LU
Defense:
Texans ($2300): It is not too often you see a defense projected for almost 4x on DK and the Texans are coming in at 3.6x and no other team is coming in at over 3.o. Lock and load them along with the rest of the field and use this value to get up to your studs. SMASH
Jaguars ($2200): I like them as a play too and if you need the extra $100 I do not mind coming off of the Texans for them but I would only do it if you absolutely need the money. SMASH
Falcons ($2500): Just play Houston for $200 cheaper. PASS
Pivots: None
Follow me on Twitter @LowOwnedWR with any questions! As always, run hot, Space Cowboy!