NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 10/26/2021

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player.  And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

C Nikola Jokic $10600

DEN @ UTA

I prefer to not pick the player in the toughest matchup out of the studs. Steph Curry and Luka Doncic are in significantly better spots today. However, the ownership will reflect that. They also have the potential to be in blowouts. The Nuggets could have those same concerns as they are on a back-to-back. Jokic is the offense for the Nuggets so if he is having a good game, they will keep the game close. I should not have to sell you on Jokic, but I will do it anyway. With Jamal Murray off the court last season, Jokic had a 32.9% usage rate averaging 1.66FPM. Those are elite numbers for the MVP.

In regards to the back-to-back, the Nuggets lost on Monday night at home vs Cleveland. It will be a short plane ride to Utah for this one. On games with 0 days of rest last year, Jokic’s numbers did not drop off. He averaged 27.6pts, 11.1reb, and 8.4ast in those 7 games. It is early on in the season so he should be fresh. As for the matchup vs Rudy Gobert, Jokic is matchup proof. They have dueled for many games now and Jokic has posted near triple-double stat lines many times. Most recently, he put up 47pts, 12reb, and 5ast. Gobert cannot defend Jokic because his offensive game is too skilled inside and out. Yet, the public never wants to go against Gobert.

 

PG Kevin Porter Jr. $6800

HOU @ DAL

For a small slate, I like taking chances on players who have huge upside even if their prices are not that appealing. KPJ might be the only guy in this price range that has the ceiling of a 9k player today. Porter will play heavy mins as we saw last game with 37 mins logged. This is the first game the Rockets have been competitive in this season. He had a team-high usage rate of 27.6%, but that goes unnoticed due to Jalen Green’s breakout performance. With Green coming off of a tournament-winning game, his ownership will be high with his price at only $6100. Though it was the preseason, we saw game after game, Porter having the bigger games compared to Green.

The Mavericks have trouble stopping fast and agile players because their team is not quick enough laterally. If Porter is able to get to the rim, it will open up more space for his shot. He is not a high percentage shooter so he has to have a good shooting game to truly go off. He contributes enough with the peripherals so I am willing to take the chance he can have one of his many big games expected this season. I prefer Porter over Green, but the ownership probably will be flipped. This is a pivot play but one that I think the field will get wrong similar to Al Horford vs Robert Williams on Sunday.

 

PG/SF RJ Barrett $5600

NYK vs PHI

I have no idea why Barrett has PG eligibility but that flexibility is nice. He handles the ball enough to rack up some assists and has the size to rebound. For $5600, if his shot is falling, he is returning at least 5x. He shot 5-17 last game and was still able to put up 26 DKpts. His price has dropped a bit due to his poor shooting. His role is secure as he plays for the Knicks. Coach Tom Thibodeau runs his starters into the ground. Barrett has even played over 40 mins last season in regulation. In an expected close game vs the 76ers, Thibs could rely on his starters even more than usual.

I do not look into individual matchups except for center. Yes, Danny Green and Matisse Thybulle are good defenders. That does not mean they are going to stop their matchup on every possession. The Thunder of all teams were able to keep their last game close vs this 76ers team with Embiid available. Whether Embiid and Drummond play or not, it would not change my interest in RJ Barrett. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey both went off. No Ben Simmons makes a huge difference for this Philly defense.

 

PF/C Darius Bazley $5000

OKC vs GSW

Derrick Favors has been ruled out for rest. The Thunder should start 1 of Mike Muscala, Isaiah Roby, or Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Proceed with caution because they have used a 3 center rotation every game to start the season and have more than enough bigs to continue with this strategy even with Favors out. That does not mean whoever starts at center would be a lock. It could be a huge leverage spot to fade the starter. These options are worse rebounders than Favors so the rest of the lineup could see a small boost in rebounds including the starting PF, Bazley. I do not think it will happen, but maybe we somehow see Bazley at center as the Warriors do not have a paint enforcer.

Removing Al Horford and Hamidou Diallo from last year’s numbers, Bazley had a 24.1% usage rate, averaging 0.89FPM. Bazley’s mins are not the safest, but he has the upside to go 8x if he is playing well. Again, if Draymond Green guards him, I do not care about individual matchups. Bazley has shot terribly so far. He is 10-32 on the year including 1-13 from beyond the arc. His price has dropped over 1k since the first Thunder game. He has had lower usage rates than that 24.1% last season. I would expect him to get more opportunities even with Josh Giddey now on the team.

 

Just missed the cut: Mike Conley, Lu Dort, Alec Burks, Facundo Campazzo, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl

 

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…

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