NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 10/25/2021

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player.  And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

PG Damian Lillard $9300

POR @ LAC

Considering that Lillard has had 2 down games to start the season, he might be a low-owned spend-up option today. He shot 8-24, 0-9 on 3s vs Sacramento in the season opener. Lillard had a better game on Saturday against Phoenix but only played 24mins due to a blowout. The Suns were content on not letting Dame beat them so he only put up 11 shots. As a result of 2 poor fantasy outings, Lillard’s price has dropped down to 4 digits. These are the times when you want to hop on.

The Clippers defense this season should be significantly worse than previous seasons with Kawhi Leonard and Patrick Beverley gone. Serge Ibaka could offer some rim protection, but he has yet to make his season debut. Reggie Jackson and Eric Bledsoe certainly will not be able to stop Lillard. Maybe the Clippers will put Terance Mann or Nicolas Batum on him, but Lillard is far too talented to be stopped by anyone. Norman Powell picked up an injury last game and has already been ruled out for this game. Last year, when Powell was out, Lillard received a boost, upping his usage rate to 32.4% averaging 1.38FPM. Assuming Nassir Little starts in place of Powell, there will be more usage to go around no matter who picks up the spot start.

 

SF/PF OG Anunoby $6300

TOR vs CHI

This is a tough matchup for the Raptors. However, we know who they rely on. It is Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby. Pascal Siakam is still out. Anunoby should simply be a 7k+ player. He had 32 DKpts last game with 4 mins to go in the 2nd quarter but had to sit out due to foul trouble. He magically turned into Tony Snell during halftime and did not record any fantasy points until 1 min left in the 4th quarter. That is unlikely to ever happen again. Anunoby has improved his offensive game immensely. With his size and defensive ability, he contributes across the box score. He had 2 dreadful shooting games to start the year and still put up 32 and 24.25 DKpts. If he were to get his standard peripheral stats and just shoot a bit better, he would clear 40 DKpts with ease and has 60pt upside.

Anunoby has had a 24-25% usage rate across the first 3 games. This could increase because he was at 25.3% last year with Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell, and Pascal Siakam off the floor in only a 149 min sample size. In these mins, Gary Trent Jr had a 29.4% usage rate which simply is not sustainable because he is only a shooter. Expect Anunoby to reach closer to a 30% usage rate until Siakam is healthy. This Bulls team does not have the same foul-drawing abilities as the Mavs with Luka Doncic so hopefully, Anunoby can keep his hands to himself.

 

SF Michael Porter Jr. $6000

DEN vs CLE

MPJ is coming off of a dud last game finishing with only 10.25 DKpts. Looking at his rotations, he got into foul trouble and missed out on a few mins. He should play closer to the 34 mins he played in the Nuggets opener. That last game vs the Spurs is an outlier. He had 7pts, 1reb, 0ast. MPJ is far too talented of a player to replicate that again. He is a plus rebounder who has shown some assist upside in the preseason. He has posted 16.9% and 17.6% usage rates in the first 2 games. Last season, with Jamal Murray off the court, MPJ had a 23.7% usage rate averaging 1.13FPM. The usage rate will positively regress to last season’s number.

Many have high expectations for MPJ this year. The 23-year-old should be the #2 option for this Nuggets team. He is almost half the price of his teammate, Nikola Jokic. The Cavaliers have probably the weirdest lineup in the NBA with Lauri Markkanen as their starting SF. MPJ is far too quick for Markkanen to keep up. Simply put, whoever the Cavs put on him, it will be a mismatch. Jimmy Butler, Khris Middleton, and Giannis Antetokounmpo all are forwards who expect to carry signifcant ownership because of their respective teammates’ absences. With no new injuries for the Nuggets, Porter should be a bit overlooked today.

 

PG Devonte’ Graham $5400

NOP @ MIN

I like Nickeil-Alexander-Walker today but he will be chalky. This will lower Graham’s ownership but what is not to like here? Graham should sit in the low to mid 20s in usage this year. He takes a ton of 3s which is perfect for DraftKings scoring. To be exact, he has attempted 6, 11, and 10 3s the first 3 games of the season. He went 1-10 last game in the same matchup. Graham is not known for his shooting percentages. He is a streaky shooter. If he is hot this game, he is going for 40 DKpts. For tournaments, he is the guy you want to take a look at, especially if your lineup does not have a Pelicans player.

Graham has the dreaded, “OPRK 1st” next to his name on the DraftKings display. Again, this means nothing. The Wolves do not have a good defense. This is not the worst matchup for PGs like how DK says it is. Yet, people will be scared off of players with the red number. This game has a 224.5 total with a close spread of 5.5. Both teams have offensive talent but are unable to provide any resistance to opposing teams on the defensive end. This could set up to be a track meet and shooting contest.

 

Just missed the cut: Clint Capela, John Collins, Gabe Vincent

 

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…

Use code: WILL for 10% Discount on VIP or Core 4 Memberships