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NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 10/21/2021

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player.  And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

NBA DFS

Oct 14, 2021; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) is defended by Miami Heat forward KZ Okpala (11) in the second half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

PG Trae Young $9100

ATL vs DAL

The 3 games on this slate have between 224.5-226.5 point totals and close spreads. The point guard position is stacked at the top with Luka Doncic who is only PG eligible and Stephen Curry. Young should be the lowest owned out of the 3 based on the talent disparity, public perception, and that DraftKings red OPRK next to Young’s name that means absolutely nothing. Doncic will have to deal with strong defenders in Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter. Curry is playing the Clippers who were the slowest pace team last season. Young has slate-breaking potential in any matchup. This one vs the Mavericks is nothing to shy away from. Though it does not stand out, the spreads indicate these 3 game environments are even.

Young had a 32.7% usage rate and averaged 1.35FPM last season.  Lou Williams and Danilo Gallinari are both listed as questionable. The statuses of both these players will not dramatically change my thoughts on Young. Logically, if Gallinari is out, it should benefit Young in that the ball will be in his hands more whether that is him putting up more shots or an increase in assist opportunities. The Hawks acquired Delon Wright in the offseason so the Lou Williams news will barely matter. The Hawks were 2nd in the league in pick and roll frequency last season at 22.3% of possessions. That trail the Utah Jazz by 0.1% for 1st. No disrespect but putting Dwight Powell, Kristaps Porzingis, and any other Mavs big in the PnR certainly does not seem all that threatening.

 

PF Kristaps Porzingis $7100

DAL @ ATL

You love em’ you hate em’. He is injury-prone and a unicorn. It is Kristaps Porzingis. The 7’3 Latvian is a fantasy monster when he is healthy. He is volatile with his fantasy output but that is why he is great for tournaments. Porzingis had a 26.6% usage rate averaging 1.22FPM last season. With his height, the rebounds and blocks will come. It is his shot that needs to fall. A player with his size usually would play in the post for the majority of the possessions. Nope. Instead, KP is a stretch big who rarely goes inside. He should get quality looks with the defense focused on Doncic and he is certainly not afraid to shoot. He has the range and should get uncontested looks especially when he plays at center and gets matched up with Clint Capela, a traditional center who is unwilling to step out to defend the 3.

Porzingis is a polarizing player. He has been subject to social media jokes and memes. That sometimes leads to that player’s ownership being down. John Collins who is PF/C eligible averaged 51 DKpts in the 2 games last year vs Dallas. The game log watchers should favor Collins because he is also $300 cheaper than KP. If you look deeper, in one of those games, Capela was in foul trouble forcing Collins into heavy minutes and significant run at the 5 where he is far more productive. Collins is not playing 38 and 40 mins again in game 1 of 82… or at least he should not… unless you play for Rick Carlisle. Porzingis should be an 8K player as the season goes on.

 

PG Jrue Holiday $6500

MIL @ MIA

It is tough to go back to a player who burned you last slate. I know, but you have to forget quickly in DFS. Holiday got hurt in the 2nd quarter vs the Nets in the opener and was not able to return. He is listed as probable for this game. In the case he gets downgraded, to questionable, he would likely be out. Then you are definitely playing other Bucks. With injuries, there comes the DraftKings tag. Even if a player is probable, DK lists them with a Q. That naturally scares DFS users off of that player. Hopefully, that tag sticks with Holiday throughout the day. All of this will lower Holiday’s ownership when he is pretty much matchup-proof. With no Donte DiVincenzo, Holiday has a 24.7% usage rate averaging 1.17FPM. He played close to 18 mins in the first half last game, the most of any Bucks starter at the time.

Holiday is a stat sheet stuffer so he is not reliant on his shot to be a good fantasy play. In a tough matchup like this vs Miami, those peripherals will boost Holiday significantly. If his shot falls, he will blow past this $6500 price tag. He has been an 8K player in the past even when Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo are healthy. People should be spending up at PG so going with Holiday gives you that different lineup construction. If the stars do not do well enough or the scrubs are not good values, you gain a huge advantage saving salary at this position.

 

SG/SF Luke Kennard $3300

LAC @ GSW

The big news here is that Kawhi Leonard will miss most of the 2021-2022 NBA season. When he or Paul George was out last year, the Clippers always were a good source of value. Here we are again with Kennard. Terance Mann is another value option but due to the $1200 difference, I am going with Kennard. (I would take Mann over Bjelica as a pivot) Taking Rajon Rondo, Lou Williams, Leonard, Nicolas Batum, and Serge Ibaka off the floor, Kennard had a 20.9% usage averaging 0.91FPM. I expect Kennard to get somewhere around mid-20s in mins. He should come off the bench but has a chance to close the game if he has his shooting stroke going.

Kennard is literally unguardable if he is on. Though I do not like to take pure shooters, Kennard is too cheap on a slate where we are deprived of value. The 3pt bonus on DK is a nice help. As mentioned earlier, the Clippers played at the slowest pace last season. Without Kawhi now, there is no reason to speed it up this year. Meanwhile, their opponents, the Warriors, played at the 4th fastest pace last season. This is a significant pace-up spot for the Clippers. Since he is a bench player, maybe his ownership can stay low. On a 3 game slate, if you can get a value play under 4K for under 20%, that is really solid.

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…

Use code: WILL for 10% Discount on VIP or Core 4 Memberships

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