Daily Fantasy Sports
Sharp App
Season Long Fantasy
Free Month
Wall of Champions
Discord

NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 10/20/2021

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player.  And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

NBA DFS

Apr 27, 2021; Houston, Texas, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) is blocked by Houston Rockets forward Kelly Olynyk (41) in the first quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Karl-Anthony Towns $9700

MIN vs HOU

This game has the 2nd highest total on the slate at 227.5. These teams played at the 3rd and 5th fastest paces last season. Towns had a 29.4% usage rate and 1.41 FPM last season. He did see a 1.4% usage increase with Ricky Rubio off the court last season, who is now on the Cavaliers. I do not look at individual matchups much except for centers because of the switching that happens in today’s NBA. Towns will be matched up with Christian Wood who is not a good defender. Aside from the physical advantages, Wood has had a negative DBPM every single year he has been in the NBA. In their 1st matchup last season, Towns recorded 29pts, 16rebs, and 8asts. In the 2nd game, KAT had 31,7, and 5 in only 31 mins. As a whole, the Rockets should be a fun fantasy team to play and play against but they should be a bottom defensive team this season.

What intrigues me further about Towns on this NBA slate is the position. A lineup can only roster a max of 2 centers. Robert Williams and Daniel Gafford both stand out as the best center plays today. They are both in the 5K price range. Many DFS players will take the value of both meaning that they can’t take any other center. By rostering KAT or a different spend-up center, you get a completely different lineup build. You will not be sacrificing opportunity cost. Out of the pay-up options, I like Towns over Jokic and Embiid because he should be the lowest owned of the 3.

 

Fred VanVleet $7500

TOR vs WAS

I am surprised that this game does not have a higher total. It is currently at 218.5. The Wizards played at the fastest pace in the league last season. That should slow down a tad with Russell Westbrook no longer on the team but this will still be a pace-up spot for Toronto. Kyle Lowry is now on the Heat. Norman Powell was traded mid-season to the Blazers. Chris Boucher is out for at least a few weeks. Last season, taking ONLY Lowry and Siakam off the floor (otherwise the sample size would be too small), FVV had a 31.2% usage rate and 1.21FPM. We should expect something similar since the Raptors do have Goran Dragic and rookie Scottie Barnes who both will take on some ball-handling duties.

A ceiling game is certainly in play because the Wizards have been NBA fantasy goodness for years now. They don’t play any defense but are able to score and keep the games close. The Raptors certainly are not that much superior to them being only 2.5pt favorites. Similar to KAT, there are some stand-out value plays at the PG position. Tyrese Maxey at $4000 in a juicy matchup vs the Pelicans should start for the suspended Ben Simmons. Spencer Dinwiddie on the other side of this game is only $4900. I would write about him but I believe he will be too high owned. He’s an excellent play but that is not the goal in this article. FVV is the spend-up to be contrarian play. He will not be under 10% because of the matchup and his SG eligibility, but the value PGs will lower his ownership.

Dejounte Murray $6800

SAS vs ORL

Murray should be lower owned than FVV because he is strictly PG eligible and you save $700 if you cannot quite get to FVV. The Orlando Magic have been a slow and solid defensive team the past few years. However, they traded most of their key players last season and are significantly worse on defense now. The Magic finished with the 5th worst defensive rating at 113.9. It is now a youth movement in Orlando so they should be increasing their pace of play. A 212.5 point total certainly is gross to look at. That should lower the ownership of everyone in this game. I also like Derrick White but would rather pay $700 more for Murray because he is the more productive fantasy player.

The Spurs no longer have DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay, and LaMarcus Aldridge. This will benefit Murray and White the most. Keldon Johnson will get more shots but does not contribute enough peripherals. Most notably, these 3 departures all rebound the ball. Murray is a good rebounding NBA guard who already averaged 7.1rebs last season. The Magic were the 11th best rebounding team but that was with Nikola Vucevic for the majority of the season. Vucevic is now replaced by Wendell Carter Jr. who is an undersized center. Taking away 3 important pieces to this Spurs team will lead to more shots, rebs, and asts for Murray who has 50pt upside.

 

Richaun Holmes $6300

SAC @ POR

This game has the highest total of the slate at 232.5. The same reasoning applies to Holmes as it did with KAT. In his first game last season vs POR, Holmes had 17pts, 9rebs, 6asts on 6-6 shooting. The 2nd matchup was vs Enes Kanter but Holmes had 12pts, 11rebs, 2stls, 2blks. That is an average of 39.25 DKpts in the 2 games. Even with adding a strong defender in Robert Covington, the Blazers still struggled defensively last season and should continue to do so with that backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The Blazers had the 2nd worst defensive rating last season at 115.3 only ahead of the Kings. These 2 teams do not play a lick of defense.

Marvin Bagley III will not be in the rotation to start the season. Luke Walton likely will insert a guard and slide Barnes to the 4. This provides a small boost to Holmes’ rebounding. Last year with Bagley off the floor, Holmes received a 1.5% usage boost. Holmes will get his mins as long as he stays out of foul trouble. At $6300, it seems a bit too cheap for this late-night DFS NBA hammer. He should be around 7K in this spot. As always with these articles, you do not need to fade all the chalky plays. If your lineup is too chalky, take someone from this list to get some differentiation.

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…

Use code: WILL for 10% Discount on VIP or Core 4 Memberships