Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too.
A look at pitchers
We have four quality pitchers today, which I guess shouldn’t be a surprise considering, but seeing that all of them have nice low carnage ratings, and both games are sitting at 7.5 totals, I suspect we’ll have a fairly quiet day for the offenses. I think an argument could easily be made for any of them, so keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to get an idea of where they’re looking!
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
We’ll kick things off with the Braves and Brewers, with Fried and Woodruff getting the start. For the most part, both pitchers are coming in pretty well, sans Woodruff’s last start against the Cardinals. He’s coming in with the higher strikeout rate, though the Brewers are striking out more as a whole, so they have pretty comparable strikeout upside in this one. There’s some BvP here, but not a whole lot outside of Pederson.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Pederson (BvP), Freeman/Swanson (some BvP)
GPP note – Woodruff is displaying traditional splits, being very strict to righties and allowing quite a bit to lefties (.375 wOBA / .316 ISO over the last month). He’s coming in with a 28.6% strikeout rate, so going with low strikeout, high contact bats would be best.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Adames
GPP note – Fried has been tough for both sides of the plate, but if they can get ahold of one, lefties are hitting for more power against him (.273 ISO for them as opposed to .061 ISO for righties). Don’t be afraid to run some LvL bats here.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Up next we have Urias and the Dodgers taking on Gausman and the Giants. Just like our last game, both pitchers are coming in looking pretty good, though there is a lot more BvP history here. I think that could give the offenses a better edge here, so if I had to bet the over on one of these games, it would probably be this one (though I’m still on the fence).
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Betts/J Turner/Taylor (some BvP), Pollock/Seager
GPP note – Big reverse splits here; Gausman is allowing .387 wOBA / .279 ISO to righties, and a lot less to lefties. Don’t be afraid to run some RvR bats to go with any good BvP ones you find.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt/Posey/Yastrzemski/Slater (BvP), Flores/Crawford
GPP note – Lots of BvP here, with some around 20 at-bats against Urias. He’s pitching well, but perhaps the matchup familiarity will prevail.
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And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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