Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s been a fun summer, but the regular season is coming to an end today, and with it, the articles from me for the year. I hope you all enjoyed them, and I’ll see you again next season! For now, let’s take a peek at this massive 15-game slate to close out the year.
A look at pitchers
Being the final game of the regular season, there’s a good chance we’ll see some funky lineup moves, pitchers included, so don’t be surprised to see the starters shuffle a little bit. Keep an eye on the news and if you are playing, don’t get totally distracted by your NFL lineups and forget to update the MLB ones if/when some big scratches happen close to lock. Otherwise, we have a ton of pitching options today, and guys like Cease & Wheeler will be strong cash game options. There are lots of tournament options, but since they might all change by morning, I’ll just recommend keeping an eye on the coach’s notes page to get an idea of where they’re looking on each slate!
Main slate
Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers
We’ll kick off the season finale with the Indians and Rangers, with Civale and Dunning getting the start. The Indians look to have the better chance of winning here, though I suppose that’s not too surprising. I like Lowe, but other than him, it’s hard to love much from the Rangers here.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Zimmer, Bradley/Mercado
GPP note – Dunning has been much more generous to lefties than righties, so go with traditional splits here. Several of these guys are hitting for good power against righties, so medium/large stacks can be utilized.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe
GPP note – It’s a good spot for reverse splits, but unfortunately only Lowe is hitting righties for power here. The rest of the team is cold against righties, so maybe just a one-off?
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Next up is Wacha and the Rays taking on Taillon and the Yankees. This one looks fairly evenly matched, but an interesting note is that both pitchers are giving up some decent power in reverse splits matchups. Could be nothing, could be something useful for GPP. The Yankees need to win here, so that could be enough reason to play them.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Meadows/Arozarena, Choi/Zunino
GPP note – Taillon is giving up equal power to L/R (.231/.241 ISO), so you can attack him from either side. I like medium/large stacks here, too.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Stanton, Gallo/LeMahieu
GPP note – Wacha has reverse splits coming into this one; .326 xwOBA / .174 ISO to righties, but hardly anything to lefties. Don’t be afraid of some small/medium RvR stacks here.
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Reds and Pirates are up next, with what looks to be Sanmartin and the Pittsburgh bullpen going at to to start. That makes it a little tough to dial in the bats here, but I’m going to guess we can count on the Reds’ bats a little more here.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Castellanos
GPP note – It’s a bullpen game, so it’s hard to know what to expect. Big stacks aren’t out of the question, in case the bullpen just doesn’t care, being the end of the regular season and all.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – none
GPP note – Sanmartin looked good against these guys in his debut, and I kind of doubt they’re going to improve much here. I get a “meh” feeling about these guys.
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
We have Knehr and the Padres taking on Webb and the Giants next, and though Webb has been solid, both offenses are coming into this one hitting well in their matchup. The Giants’ offense will likely be more popular, but I don’t mind hedging some lineups using some San Diego stacks.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Tatis, Pham/Hosmer/Frazier/Grisham/Croneworth (they’re more like 3.5 stars)
GPP note – Bad matchup against Logan, though these guys have been hitting righties well recently. Not a bad place to hedge!
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt/Crawford, Yastrzemski, Posey/La Stella
GPP note – Good matchup here, even more for the righties, so don’t forget to include some RvR bats in your stacks.
Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals
Up next is Sale and the Red Sox taking on Joan Adon and the Nationals. I hope we get that vintage big game from Sale this time around, but if nothing else, the Nats aren’t really hitting lefties for power, so I like the Red Sox here.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers
GPP note – Nothing to go off of here, with a new pitcher and all, so target the usual guys if you decide to go here.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Thomas, Soto/Bell
GPP note – Thomas is the only one hitting lefties for any sort of power right now, so at least sprinkle him around.
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Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Up next are the Orioles and Blue Jays, with Zimmermann and Ryu on the mound. Neither pitcher has thrown a whole lot as of late, and both can be a bit volatile, so stacking either side of this game (or perhaps both in some lineups) isn’t out of the question. The Blue Jays need to win here, so if nothing else, that’s a reason to stack ’em.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Hays/Severino
GPP note – Ryu can be very hit or miss, so I’d go with big stacks and hope for the best (as a contrarian GPP move, that is).
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero, Springer/Semien, Bichette
GPP note – While these guys aren’t hitting lefties the best, they do get a great matchup here with the Baltimore back end, so don’t let that scare you off. Any size of stack is in play here.
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Detmers and the Angels will take on Anderson and the Mariners next, and both offenses look to be about in the same spot. That is, both are hitting lefties fairly poorly, and both are facing pitchers that allow some good power, so both are in up-matchups. We’ll see if that helps them any, but if nothing else, I don’t know that these offenses will be overly popular.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, Renfigo
GPP note – Most of these guys are cold against lefties, sans Ohtani and Renfigo, but Anderson does allow a lot of power to both sides. Some medium stacks could work here, or a handful of one-offs sprinkled around.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Haniger, Seager/Torrens
GPP note – Righties have the better matchup here, but unfortunately only a few of these bats are hitting lefties very well right now (the three above).
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
The Athletics and Astros are up next, with Irvin and Urquidy on the hill. Like the previous game, these offenses are a little weak right now in their respective matchups today, but both pitchers are allowing some power, so they’re not off limits. I think the Astros have the better chance here overall, but we’ll see how it plays out.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Olson/Chapman
GPP note – Big reverse splits; Urquidy is allowing .279 ISO to righties, and almost nothing to lefties. Olson/Chapman are hitting for the most power against righties.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve, Bregman/Correa/Alvarez, Tucker
GPP note – Irvin is allowing decent power to lefties (.143 ISO) and lots to righties (.284). As has been the theme today, most of the guys are a bit soft right now, but this could be a good wake-up game to kick off the post-season.
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
Peralta will face Buehler next, and at first glance I just think we’re going to get an ‘under’ game here. Both pitchers are solid, even if Buehler’s strikeout rate is lower than it should be. He’ll at least get a good matchup to get things back on track before the post-season, so consider both arms in this one.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Adames
GPP note – Not a great matchup here, though Buehler has been allowing some power lately, and his strikeout rate is almost half of what it was a month or two ago. I do think he’ll correct the other way, so be wary of stacks here.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Seager, Smith
GPP note – Seager and Smith are hitting righties well, but nobody else really is right now. Peralta does allow more power to righties, but also has a solid 31.6% strikeout rate, so I’m not sure how much fireworks we’ll get here.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Up next are the Rockies and Diamondbacks, with Marquez and Mejia facing off. Neither team has anything to play for, except for maybe Marquez to have one final good start on the year, but other than that, the best we can hope for is that they show up wanting to beat up on one another.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon, Rodgers/Tapia/Story
GPP note – Great spot for these bats, but again, they’re hitting fairly poorly for the most part.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star pays – Peralta, Calhoun/Varsho
GPP note – Marquez had a good year but has been trending down in this final stretch, so if he has another rough game, it could be a good spot for the Diamondbacks to go out with a bang. He’s allowing around .200 ISO to both sides right now.
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Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
The Twins and Royals are up next, with Barnes and Kowar getting the start. The two couldn’t be much more different coming into this one, with Barnes being pretty strict, and Kowar allowing contact to everyone and the bat boy.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Sano/Kepler, Buxton, Gordon
GPP note – Kowar is allowing plenty to both sides, and it would be like KC to go out with a crappy game. These guys are a solid stacking option.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez
GPP note – I could see Perez getting another knock to cap off the season, but aside from that, I don’t love my Royals here. Maybe next year!
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Alexander and the Tigers will take on Cease and the White Sox next, and this one looks like an easy win for the White Sox. Cease is coming in with a huge 41% strikeout rate, and these Detroit bats are about as cold as they come, so I could see him having a big game here. The White Sox will want some momentum heading into the playoffs, so look for that to start here, since they’ll have some tough games ahead of them.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – none
GPP note – Bad matchup against Cease, though he does allow some power to lefties. I’d be careful stacking here, as these guys are all pretty cold.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Robert, Jimenez/Moncada/Anderson
GPP note – Alexander allows .161 ISO to righties, but not much x/wOBA to either side. I don’t know that these guys will have a huge game, but at least a few runs, so some small/medium stacks sound good.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
Wheeler and the Phillies will take on what looks to be Lopez and the Marlins in our next game. If Lopez can do what he was doing before getting injured, then this game will surely play to the under. If not, perhaps the Phillies can score a few, but we’ll see how things play out.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Miller
GPP note – It kind of depends on how Lopez does. If he’s on point, these guys will be pretty quiet. If he’s shaky, they could go off. It’s a good place to hedge in GPP, but Harper/Miller are doing the best right now.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – none
GPP note – Pretty terrible matchup against Wheeler, and I suspect these guys will show up to get this one over with to start the off-season. Hard to like any of these bats.
Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals
We’ll finish the Cubs/Cardinals rivalry for the year with Mills and Woodford on the mound. Overall I think the Cardinals’ momentum will carry them through this one, though with both pitchers doing well, I think it’ll be a somewhat low-scoring affair.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ/Contreras, Wisdom
GPP note -Woodford isn’t really allowing much, but his 15.6% strikeout rate isn’t super scary. Unfortunately I don’t know that this will translate to much offensive firepower, so small/medium stacks sound best.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado, any lefty that starts
GPP note – Good traditional splits here (.263 ISO for lefties), but not much at all for the righties. Medium stacks would be good, with a few bigger ones sprinkled around.
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
And finally, we have our final 2021 regular season game with the Mets and Braves, featuring Syndergaard and Morton. This game is a little weird at first glance, as we have two solid pitchers that should get the start, but one of them will probably only see an inning, and the other might get skipped in favor of resting for the NLDS. Keep an eye on the news!
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor, Nimmo/Alonso
GPP note – Not a great matchup against Morton, and only a few of these guys are hitting righties well right now. Small/medium stacks might be okay? Morton is allowing more power to righties, so don’t forget to grab Alonso.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Rosario/Riley/Albies
GPP note – Not a great matchup facing Syndergaard, though it sounds like he’ll only be there for an inning. There’s always a chance these guys will be lower owned with people just seeing the name Syndergaard, so if that looks to be the case, get a few extra stacks here.
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And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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