Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 10/02:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Triston McKenzie
- Alek Manoah
- Chris Flexen
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Philadelphia Phillies (-121) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Phillies – Hans Crouse
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This game lacks any kind of excitement for me. Crouse made his debut recently but walked far more than he struck out. Luzardo has the GPP upside but he has looked lost most of this season. He could get a weak PHI lineup with them being eliminated but I do think Harper stays in the lineup as he was once the favorite for NL MVP. I would look at mini-stacks or one-offs in this game, depending on the lineups.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Matt Vierling, Freddy Galvis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Sanchez, Lewin Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Undecided
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. The Red Sox need to make a decision on pitching as they need to pick up 2 wins this weekend. I have seen Tanner Houck floated around as a potential starter today. I don’t think starter would be the word as he pitches just 3 days ago so I assume it’d be an abbreviated opener situation. Gray has struggled mightily at home, allowing 14 HRs in 37.1 innings. Yeah, you read that right, a rate of about 3.4 per 9 innings.
BOS 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .200 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Alcides Escobar, Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Twins – Griffin Jax
Royals -Kris Bubic
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I saw a lot of people thinking this match-up would blow up on Friday and they were right, for the most part. We should expect that kind of game today as the Twins have hit Bubic really well and Jax just isn’t somebody to be afraid of. I could see this game ending up 10-8 with 4+ HRs being hit. But now that I have said that, expect it to finish 4-2 with 1 HR hit. Buxton is rolling at the plate and he may end up a CORE play for me.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton, Mitch Garver
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Nicky Lopez, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs this season.
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Cincinnati Reds (-172) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Pirates – Max Kranick
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Mahle has been extremely dominant against PIT this season and he has a ridiculous 1.85 ERA on the road this season. Everything lines up for him in this spot and while the Reds have nothing to play for, he’s somebody that can make himself some money with a strong performance to end the season. Kranick looked strong in his last start but I don’t think that’s a precursor for what he’s able to do on a daily basis.
CIN 5-star plays: Jonathan India
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox (-270)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Matt Manning
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This is a pretty big spot for Giolito and the White Sox as the Astros lost last night which brings home field in their round 1 match-up into play. The White Sox have hit Manning really well while Giolito has had a few struggles with DET. I think the atmosphere in Chicago is going to be playoff-like as the fans would definitely love that extra game in the first round. I am willing to be all over the White Sox bats in GPPs and cash games.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Eric Haase
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Yasmani Grandal
4-star plays: Gavin Sheets, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians (-153) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Indians – Triston McKenzie
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I have to rely on Triston McKenzie in a HUGE season-long match-up today so I might as well double-down and be All about him for DFS purposes as well. I know that the Rangers have scored a few runs recently but he flashes elite upside despite his recent struggles. Lyles is one of those professional pitchers who are capable of going 7 shutout innings against just about anybody he faces.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Myles Straw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Andy Ibanez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs this season.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners (-172)
Pitchers:
Angels – Jhonathan Diaz
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This is basically a must-win for the Mariners if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. Flexen has an ERA of 2 in 18 innings against the Angels this season and while his Ks are really low (just 8), I have to love his chances against this weak LAA team. He has been at his best when pitching at home, allowing just 6 HRs in 92.1 innings. I do have some interest in the Mariners as a stack because their main pieces should be in the lineup.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France, Luis Torrens
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against LHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals (-172)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Adrian Sampson
Cardinals – Jon Lester
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Will be pretty interesting to see what kind of a lineup the Cardinals roll out there. I am of the belief you want your guys hot when the playoffs start and I am against the idea of just sitting your main guys. I understand some people think it rests them but baseball is such a hot/cold game that extended rest isn’t always the best, especially when your offense has been so hot. Lester against the Cubs is intriguing because he could provide a solid return as an SP2 or Contreras could have a double-dong game against him.
CHC 5-star plays: Willson Contreras
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Matt Duffy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill
4-star plays: Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (-240)
Pitchers:
Orioles – John Means
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Feels dirty trying to attack Means but the Blue Jays are in must-win mode and they do have 3 HRs as a team in just 18 ABs against Means. Shockingly, they haven’t faced Means yet this season. Manoah has 12 Ks in 9.1 innings against BAL this season but the issue is he has allowed 4 HRs in those 2 starts. I love his upside for GPPs but the floor is lower than you might think, against a team like BAL.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Marcus Semien, Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against LHPs this season.
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I think Vegas is waiting for SD’s confirmation on their SP. I believe it will be Musgrove as he was initially being looked at as the starter yesterday. The Giants can clinch the West with a win in this game so I expect the atmosphere to be electric with Gausman on the mound. He has struggled a bit in the 2nd half and the Padres have a few guys that have hit him really well. This game should be pretty exciting from both a baseball and DFS standpoint.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Crawford
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Tommy La Stella
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 against RHPs this season.
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Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-135)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I might surprise you here as I think this game has a shot at seeing 10+ runs scored based on the history against the pitchers. Gallen is somebody who is capable of shutting anybody down so I do want some shares but I think there are guys in this game that could be in the GPP winning lineups tonight.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. If we take out all of the other factors, this SP match-up is great. The problem is that I could see the Dodgers scratching Urias if the Giants win during the day of they could decide to limit him to 3-4 innings as a way to keep him fresh. Burnes has an outside shot at the NL Cy Young so he has some motivation but the match-up is really tough and he always could be limited to 4-5 innings as a tune-up as well.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros (-153)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Paul Blackburn
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Astros need to win as they are battling the White Sox for home field in their first-round match-up. Odorizzi is capable of throwing 5 strong innings but he isn’t being allowed to go very deep. Blackburn isn’t somebody that should scare us but he also hasn’t been lit up much. The Astros lineup isn’t rolling at the moment but that can change at any point.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Chad Pinder
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (-130)
Pitchers:
Rays – Shane Baz
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Baz has looked phenomenal at the MLB level but this is a different kind of atmosphere. He has the ability to be an absolute stud but the energy in NY should be through the roof in this game. We know that the Rays can be extremely dangerous against LHPs but we also know that they have some strikeout issues as well. This is a great game to target for fantasy purposes but it’s one that is tough to pinpoint exactly what will happen.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Mike Zunino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Pitchers:
Mets – Trevor Williams
Braves – Jesse Chavez
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
NYM 5-star plays: Javy Baez
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Chicago White Sox
- Minnesota Twins
- Kansas City Royals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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