Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too.
A look at pitchers
We have another day with some strong pitching (and one game with slightly weaker options), so I think we could see another fairly quiet day on the scoreboard. Cherry picking some one-offs or smaller stacks might be the key to winning today, so as always, keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to get an idea of where they’re looking!
Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox
We’ll kick things off with the Astros and White Sox, with McCullers and Rodon getting the start here. Both pitchers, like most today, are strong options with plenty of strikeout upside. Rodon carries the highest KSCORE on the slate, so we’ll see if he can hold down this Houston offense.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve (some BvP), Correa/Bregman, Alvarez
GPP note – This is a tough matchup, as Rodon hasn’t really shown much weakness coming into this one. Altuve has some BvP on him, so if nothing else, play him.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Moncada, Sheets, Abreu/Robert/Anderson (3.5 star for these three)
GPP note – Much the same as Rodon, McCullers has very strict statcast numbers to both sides of the plate, though his strikeout rate isn’t quite as high. There’s a few sprinkles of BvP here, but nothing significant.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves
We’ll head on over to the next game, with the Brewers and Braves facing off with Lauer and Morton on the hill. We have the same 8.5 total here as in the first game, but I suspect we’ll see the under here.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Adames/Wong
GPP note – More strict pitching, and only three of these guys are hitting righties all that well right now. I think this offense will be weak today, but the three above might have some usage.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Albies/Soler, Freeman/Riley
GPP note – More of the same here as well. Tough pitching, high strikeout rate, and only one of these guys (Albies) is hitting lefties for much power. The others above have good wOBA numbers, but aren’t getting the extra power to go with them.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
We head out west for our final game today, with DeSclafani and the Giants taking on Gonsolin and the Dodgers. Though we have the lowest total here, we also have the weakest pitching, so I think this game could be a good source of some offensive production.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Yastrzemski/Crawford, Posey/La Stella
GPP note – Big reverse splits here; Gonsolin has allowed .391 wOBA / .286 ISO to righties (.163 ISO to lefties), so don’t be afraid of some RvR bats here.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Seager, Turner/Pollock, Bellinger
GPP note – Decent traditional splits; DeSclafani is allowing .352 xwOBA / .151 ISO to lefties, but has been very strict to righties. Any lefties that start today are in play. J Turner and Pollock are hitting righties the best of all the righties in the lineup.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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