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MLB DFS Main Slate Advice | Picks, Stacks, Strategy Projections Today September 23rd | Fanduel Draftkings

Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown!  I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools.  I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too.

A look at pitchers

We have a nice wide selection of pitchers today, from studs like Scherzer, McCullers, Darvish, and Nola, to middle guys Bumgarner and Matz, to some scarier guys to play like Kikuchi, who could surprise everyone with a big score or get shelled at the flip of a coin, seemingly.  Granted, most of the games are split today, so be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to get an idea of where they’re looking on each slate!


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Early slates

St Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

We’ll kick off the early slate(s) with the Cardinals and Brewers, with Wainwright and Houser getting the start.  I get the feeling this one will play to the under, so our first one might not be very exciting, but perhaps some of the other games will make up for it.

Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado, O’Neil
GPP note – Houser doesn’t give up much power to either side, and only average x/wOBA to lefties.  Proceed with caution with any bigger stacks.

Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays
– Yelich, Wong/Vogelbach
GPP note
– Tough matchup against Wainwright, who has even stricter statcast numbers than Houser.  His strikeout rate isn’t very high at least, but I don’t know if I would love big stacks here either.


Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

Heading over to Coors, we’ll get Scherzer and the Dodgers facing Freeland and the Rockies.  It’ll be interesting to see how Scherzer does here, but I’m sure he’ll come prepared, so don’t be surprised to see another big performance out of him.

Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Betts, Turner/Turner, Seager
GPP note – Freeland has some good games in him but is allowing .238 ISO to righties, so you don’t need me to tell you to attack him here at Coors.

Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays
– Blackmon/Story, Cron/McMahon
GPP note
– You can always stack at Coors, but definitely hedge your bets against this ace, should you decide to stack against him.


Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics

Next up are the Mariners and Athletics, with Kikuchi and Bassitt on the mound.  Both teams are hitting well in their matchup, and both pitchers have some weaknesses to traditional splits, so this one could quickly be one of the higher scoring games on the day.

Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Seager, Crawford, Kelenic/Haniger
GPP note – Strong LvR splits here, with .380 xwOBA.  Not much to righties, but you could run a couple as a GPP option against the bullpen or something.

Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays
– Olson/Chapman, Marte/Canha
GPP note
– Kikuchi is allowing a ton to righties, and this team is full of them.  Stack away!


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Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks

Morton and the Braves will face Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks next.  Overall I think we’ll see Morton and the Braves take this one, but the Braves aren’t hitting lefties as well as they could be, so perhaps Mad Bum can do a little more than we’re used to seeing him do as of late?  He did rack up 43+ DKFP against them back in back in April…just saying!

Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman
GPP note – These guys aren’t hitting lefties very well right now, but Bum is giving up a good chunk of power to both sides.  A hedge, perhaps?  Freeman is leading the team with .619 xwOBA LvL, but nothing to really show for it, so at least grab some shares of him.

Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays
– Marte, Varsho
GPP note
– Not a very good matchup against Morton, but his one weakness is .179 ISO given up to righties, so don’t be afraid to try a RvR bat or two here.


San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres

To wrap up the early slate(s), we have Webb and the Giants going up against Darvish and the Padres.  Both pitchers have solid upside here, though Darvish has certainly had his struggles as of late, so it’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out.  If nothing else, grab some shares of the pitchers here since they do have high ceilings.  Webb certainly has the easier lineup to navigate here.

Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt/Crawford, Posey, Yastrzemski
GPP note – It’s hard to know what Darvish will show up, so if you stack here, consider hedging with some Darvish lineups to cover your bases.

Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays
– Machado/Pham
GPP note
– Tough matchup against Webb and most of these guys are fairly cold against righties.  Big stacks are ill-advised.


Main slate

Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds

We’ll switch over to the main slate (on DraftKings at least – for FanDuel’s main slate, skip to the next game) with Corbin and the Nationals taking on Castillo and the Reds.  This is always a good park to grab some hitters, even with some name-brand pitchers.  I don’t know that big game stacking is the answer, but I could see a homer or two coming from this one.

Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell, Thomas/Garcia
GPP note – Castillo does allow .185 ISO to righties, and there are a few on here hitting for power, so don’t be afraid to grab some small stacks.

Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays
– Castellanos/Votto, Farmer/Suarez
GPP note
– Solid matchup for the righties, with Corbin allowing .393 wOBA / .328 ISO to them.


Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies

Up next are the Pirates and Phillies, with Overton and Nola facing off.  I’d imagine Nola will be a core pitching option for cash games, so you could lean on him there.  I can’t say how long Overton will last, somewhere between 1-3 innings I’d imagine, so I don’t know that he’ll be very useful to us.

Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds/Gamel
GPP note – Bad matchup against Nola, though he is allowing average power to both sides (.155 / .145 ISO to L/R).  I could see a one-off working here, if you get lucky, but otherwise, meh.

Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays
– Realmuto, Galvis, Miller, McCutchen
GPP note
– Overton can hold his own, but he doesn’t last very long, so I wouldn’t worry so much about him.  We’ll probably see the bullpen, so it’s anybody’s guess as to what kind of matchups we’ll see.  I like medium or slightly bigger stacks here, as several guys are hitting for power (see above).


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Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles

We’ll head over to Camden Yards for the Rangers and Orioles, with Otto and Lowther getting the start here.  Another great hitter’s ballpark on the day, it’s always fun to stack here, and even though the Rangers are ice cold against lefties, this Baltimore bullpen might be able to warm them back up.

Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Kiner-Falefa
GPP note – These guys aren’t hitting lefties at all, but Lowther is giving up tons to righties, and this bullpen is pretty weak, so don’t be surprised to see them to something here.  Any kind of stack is in play.

Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays
– Mullins, Hays, Santander
GPP note
– Decent matchup against Otto for both sides of the plate, so like the Rangers, any kind of stacking is in play.  Those that are hitting righties the best are listed above.


Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins

Next up are the Blue Jays and Twins, with Matz and Pineda on the hill.  Overall I think the Blue Jays should get this one, though they’ll have to do a little work to get there.  I don’t love their chances of going bonkers, but I’m sure we’ll at least see a few solid hits throughout the lineup.  As for the Twins, Matz has been pretty solid, and I think he continues that here.

Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer, Semien, Hernandez, Gurriel, Kirk
GPP note – Another weird matchup, Pineda has strong statcast numbers but his strikeout rate is pretty low (14.5% over his last three starts).  Granted, these guys are crushing righties, so even if he does well for a few innings, they’ll have good chances later, too.  I’d still stack here, just don’t bet the house on this one, in case they drop a dud.

Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays
– Polanco/Donaldson, Buxton/Gordon
GPP note
– Not a great matchup against Matz here.  His only real weakness is his .396 wOBA given up to lefties, but he’s not giving up much power to either side.  These guys are hitting lefties well at least, so I guess small/medium stacks could be in play.


Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels

And to wrap up the day, we’ll get McCullers and the Astros taking on Cob and the Angels.  Both pitchers are doing well, so I could see this game being a little quieter than Vegas might think, but we’ll see how it goes.  The Houston bats can certainly go berserk at a moment’s notice, so Cobb will have to be on his game to keep the Angels in it.  I worry about his strikeout upside in this one, but if he can keep the ball on the ground, maybe he can grind through it.

Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Correa/Bregman, etc
GPP note – Cobb is nearly the same as Matz from the previous game, but with how well these guys are hitting righties, I’m less concerned about Cobb than I am Matz.  Cobb has a strong strikeout rate (27.8%) but these guys all have around a 15% or lower strikeout rate.  I want to say hedge here, but I just don’t see Cobb putting up a big score, even if the Houston bats are a little slower than they could be.

Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays
– Ohtani/Walsh, Gosselin/Renfigo/Lagares (these three are more like 3 to 3.5 star)
GPP note
– Not a great matchup against McCullers by any means, but he does allow .164 ISO to righties.  You could slip in one or two of them, or maybe Ohtani, but I wouldn’t go with big stacks here.


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And that’s going to do it for this one.  Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.  Best of luck today!

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