Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/22:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Zack Wheeler
- Joe Ryan
- Ian Anderson
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Julian Merryweather
Rays – Luis Patino
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Right now this looks like a bullpen game for the Blue Jays but we do not have an official word as of early this morning.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .200 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Pirates – Connor Overton
Reds – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
Waiting for the Vegas information.
PIT 5-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
4-star plays: Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Jonathan India, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox (-172) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
White Sox – Reynaldo Lopez
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Both of these offenses have had some decent success against the opposing SP and we know that Lopez has seen his strikeouts plummet as a starting pitcher. Mize will probably be limited to 3-4 innings as the Tigers manage his workload to end the season. The White Sox are definitely a viable stack.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Zack Collins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Victor Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs this season.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies (-300)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Keegan Akin
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Wheeler is in the best spot on the slate as he’s had an impressive 2021 season. He’s averaging nearly 26 DK ppg at home this season as he has an impressive 140 Ks in 118.2 innings in Philly. The Orioles offense has been slumping quite a bit and being a massive favorite means Wheeler is the de facto #1 for cash tonight. I like stacking the Phillies yet again with how hot Harper and Segura have been.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Freddy Galvis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins (-130)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Marlins – Elieser Hernandez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Another odd start time in Miami leaves this game off of any of the main slates. Gray has a walking issue but he is extremely talented while Hernandez tends to be overlooked because of his injury history. As much as I like the SPs from a baseball standpoint, I would still prefer to use mini-stacks of both offenses despite a low total.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Alcides Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Sanchez, Jazz Chisholm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs this season.
Houston Astros (-203) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Astros – Luis Garcia
Angels – Janson Junk
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Garcia has had a decent season but he has struggled a bit on the road and he’s really had his struggles against the Angels for some reason. I am still not sure if Junk is a real person but he did throw the ball decently against the White Sox last time out. He has allowed 3 HRs in 8 MLB innings so far which helps me put the Astros in my top 5 on the main slate.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: Jared Walsh
4-star plays: Brandon Marsh, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
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Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics (-135)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Athletics – Cole Irvin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Another big-time game for both of these teams as the season winds down. I can see some runs being put up here as I don’t think either SP is strong enough to make a statement in an important spot. With that said, we have seen both pitchers have success this season. I think the A’s offense is more dangerous but the SEA offense is very under the radar against weaker pitching.
SEA 5-star plays: Luis Torrens
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Jarred Kelenic
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against LHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins (-111) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Twins – Joe Ryan
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
Still waiting on the Vegas total. I assume we are still waiting on the wind information. Ryan looks really solid at the MLB level, but I just wish he could pick up a couple more strikeouts. Hendricks is always a steady option but he has really struggled when pitching at Wrigley this season so the Twins stack looks very interesting for GPP purposes.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Frank Schwindel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox (-172)
Pitchers:
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Red Sox – Chris Sale
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Sale hasn’t been overly dominant in his return and then he struck out just 1 BAL batter in his return from the COVID list. I think he steps up a bit in this one but a guy like Lindor has owned him in his career and we know the power that Alonso offers us. Walker has had a pretty solid season but I don’t like this match-up for him. Schwarber has taken him deep 3 times in just 9 PAs.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against LHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-195) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. Marquez has been really solid at home but he struggled with control against the Dodgers. I don’t think I can get behind him for anything other than a deep GPP option where you want to get a little different. Buehler is battling for the CY Young in the NL and a huge performance, in Coors, would go a long way in helping his case.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Chris Taylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs this season.
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Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees (-270)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Taylor Hearn
Yankees – Corey Kluber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Kluber lines up for a great spot as he has allowed just 9 earned runs in 35 home innings while picking up 37 Ks. The Yankees HR bats have started to come alive and that could spell trouble for Hearn, early and often, in this game. None of the Yankees bats stand out a ton ahead of the rest but I like the way that Stanton and Urshela have swung the bat recently.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Andy Ibanez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Gio Urshela
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves (-190) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Braves – Ian Anderson
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Anderson is one of those guys that I just can’t stop using when he takes the mound. We basically know he’s going to walk a couple of hitters while striking out 1.4-1.8 guys per inning in this match-up. We have to be ok with the fact that he probably allows a run or three in this game. Kelly has been solid at home but he has been struggling of late and the Braves’ offense is full of danger.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketal Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Harrison Bader
GPP Note: Team ISO of .200 against LHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals (-111) @ Cleveland Indian
Pitchers:
Royals – Carlos Hernandez
Indians – Logan Allen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am mostly interested in the KC bats with a CLE one-off or mini-stack in this game. I love the way that KC performs against LHPs despite the bottom half of the lineup being rather weak. As a baseball fan, I am hoping that Perez finishes the season hot and manages to get to the 50 HR mark. That feels like something that is EXTREMELY impressive from the catcher position. Both SPs have flashed the ability to shut down the opposition.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against LHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants (-115) @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Giants – Scott Kazmir
Padres – Vince Velasquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I believe we see plenty of offense in this match-up tonight. Kazmier isn’t going to get us much more than 3 innings at this point while Velasquez looked pretty rough in his first SD start. The offenses had plenty of chances last night and that was with 2 much tougher SPs on the mound.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Crawford
4-star plays: Tommy La Stella, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- St Louis Cardinals
- New York Yankees
- Philadelphia Phillies or Houston Astros
MLB Dinger of the Day – Paul Goldschmidt, STL
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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