Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/21:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Josh Rogers
- Jordan Montgomery
- Eduardo Rodriguez
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (-115)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Toronto struggled with Rasmussen recently but I think the advantage goes to them in this spot as he isn’t striking people out as a starting pitcher. Manoah has big-time upside but TB is very tough against RHPs. This might be the first time in weeks that TOR has fallen outside of my top 3 stacks on the main slate. Vlad and Hernandez make one of the best mini-stacks on the slate tonight.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (-190)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. A few of the Pirates bats have hit Mahle very well but he still lines up in a solid spot with his offense in a great spot against Keller. Votto came alive with a double-dong yesterday and he’s hit Keller pretty well in his career. I think the Reds put up 6+ tonight as they need to come alive if they want to make the postseason.
PIT 5-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Jonathan India, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox (-160) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Tigers – Tyler Alexander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Keuchel hasn’t been very good but he gets a plus spot to attack. I am torn on what to do but most likely I won’t be using him as I think he has a limited ceiling. I hope that Abreu is back in the lineup for the White Sox as he is in a plus spot. The top half of the CWS lineup should be pretty popular as they have a solid ITT.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert, Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against LHPs this season.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Orioles – Chris Ellis
Phillies – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas total. I have seen a bunch of different SP scenarios for both teams today. The Phillies might go with a combination of Medina-Moore while the Orioles might open with Tate before turning to Ellis. I am mainly interested in the Phillies bats but won’t rule out a one-off or mini-stack of BAL should we get official word that an LHP will be the main pitcher for the Orioles. Harper is having a massive 2nd half fo the season and I think there’s a good chance he goes deep today.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against LHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Freddy Galvis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins (-153)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josh Rogers
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This is an odd start time game so we won’t have it on many slates but it’s an interesting one for GPP purposes with the SPs being my main targets. Josh Rogers isn’t anything special but he’s thrown the ball pretty well for WSH down the stretch and gets a plus spot. Trevor Rogers is certainly the better overall SP but he has the tougher individual match-up, despite being a home favorite, in my opinion.
WSH 5-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against LHPs this season.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Angels – Packy Naughton
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: David Fletcher
4-star plays: Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
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Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics (-125)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Athletics – Paul Blackburn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The A’s have a few guys that have had success against Gonzales and it’s basically put up or shut up time for them if they want to make a run at the 2 A.L. East teams leading the Wild Card. Seattle has an outside shot at a Wild Card but their main focus should still be the development of players so I expect the bottom half of their lineup to be full of young guys getting a shot.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Jarred Kelenic
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Starling Marte
4-star plays: Yan Gomes, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs (-111)
Pitchers:
Twins – Griffin Jax
Cubs – Alec Mills
Rundown:
Still waiting on the Vegas total as I assume they are waiting on wind forecasts. I think we see some runs scored in this game as neither SP should scare you off of the bats. I love using a Twins stack as the top has been pretty productive since the trade deadline. Schwindel has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball during the 2nd half.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Frank Schwindel, Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox (-145)
Pitchers:
Mets – Marcus Stroman
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am really interested in this match-up as both SPs are very capable of being studs on any given day. I lean E-Rod in this match-up but he has more volatility than Stroman does (but he also offers the higher ceiling). Boston might make one of the best, under the radar, stacks on the slate tonight.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: James McCann, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against LHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Travis Shaw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get to see the Dodgers in Coors for one last series and they start out against an SP that they have absolutely dominated against. You can stack just about the entire lineup and feel good about your chances tonight against Senzatela. Urias is a tough guy to pick bats against but the Rockies LHBs have had the most success while Rodgers has been really strong in the 2nd half of the season.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Corey Seager
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Gavin Lux
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against LHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: Brendan Rodgers
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against LHPs this season.
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Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees (-270)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Dane Dunning/Glenn Otto
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Montgomery is in the same great spot that Cortes was yesterday. The Yankees are in a pretty strong spot overall as I am seeing reports that Dunning will just open and then they will turn to Otto as the long-man. The big question I have is which Yankee bat is going to homer tonight? It’s always tough trying to figure out how to stack them but we generally see people auto plug-in Judge and Stanton.
TES 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against LHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Braves – Undecided
D’Backs – Luke Weaver
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I have seen some talk of either Drew Smyly or a bullpen game for the Braves tonight. I think that’s pretty important information for us as the D’Backs are not a potent opponent and the pitching of the Braves is something we would normally want to add to our player pool. Weaver has been decent but the match-up is really bad for him. We can always stack the Braves because of how dangerous their lineup is.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Rojas, Ketal Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-195)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jake Woodford
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I like the idea of using a one-off from this game but not much else as I don’t really want to pick on Woodruff and the Brewers aren’t a very strong offense, despite having 91 wins on the season. O’Neill has been on a roll at the plate and has had some strong success against Woodruff. On the MIL side, I think it’s Eduardo Escobar that intrigues me the most.
STL 5-star plays: Tyler O’Neill
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians (-135)
Pitchers:
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Indians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This game isn’t part of the main slates as CLE LOVES to have odd start times. Both SPs are capable of surprising but both offenses are more than capable of putting up 7+ in this spot. The Royals’ bats are producing a bit more than the Indians’ but Jose Ramirez-Franmil Reyes is always a potent combination to get exposure to.
KC 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Nicky Lopez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against LHPs this season.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Crawford
4-star plays: Tommy La Stella, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Houston Astros
- Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Dinger of the Day – Corey Seager, LA Dodgers
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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