Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too.
A look at pitchers
We have a wide range of mostly solid pitching today, ranging from studs like Cole and Giolito to cheaper names like McClanahan and Gilbert who are in good spots. All in all we have 8 pitchers with 500+ KSCOREs on the main slate, though just 1 on the later ones (that would be Montas). Picking the right pitchers will be vital, as there will be quite a few with high ceilings. So of course, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to get an idea of where they’re looking!
Main slate
Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees
We’ll kick things off with the Indians and Yankees, with Morgan and the aforementioned Cole on the mound. Cole leads the way today in most categories (well, if you look at the stat sheet, all of them), and will be a popular choice for cash games. You could always contrarian stack against him, but I wouldn’t get my hopes up too much.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – none
GPP note – Awful matchup against Cole. Contrarian stacks at your own risk.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo/Gallo, Judge/Stanton
GPP note – Good matchup for the lefties here, with .390 xwOBA / .246 ISO given up to them from Morgan.
Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals
Next up are the Rockies and Nationals, with Gray and Espino to get the start. The Rockies look to have the advantage here, in both offense and pitching, so long as Gray can continue to do his thing and keep the bullpen out of it for as long as possible.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon, Story, Cron
GPP note – Solid matchup against Espino, who is allowing .182 ISO to lefties and a whopping .250 ISO to righties. A lot of these guys are hitting good power against righties, so feel free to stack away here.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell, Thomas/Garcia
GPP note – Not a great matchup against Gray, but he is allowing .383 wOBA / .153 ISO to lefties.
Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
Up next we have what looks to be a bullpen game from the Twins, taking on Berrios and the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays will probably take this one, but maybe some of the Twins’ lefties can help keep pace with the score.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco, Gordon
GPP note – Berrios is allowing .351 wOBA / .218 ISO to lefties, so you can run a few against him. He’s very strict to righties, though.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero, Semien, Springer, Bichette
GPP note – It’s a bullpen game, so hard to know what to expect, but the usual guys are always in play here for their power upside.
Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays
We head down south for the Tigers and Rays, with Peralta and McClanahan on the hill. Shane has been pitching well, though his xwOBA is pretty high (.386 / .390 to righties/lefties). That could mean he’s in for a shelling any game now, so stacking some Tigers against him isn’t the worst idea you could come up with.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Grossman, Cabrera
GPP note – Not a fantastic matchup, but when the xwOBA is high, that means there is good contact being made. If that trend continues, it’s just a matter of time before he gets dinged up a bit.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Cruz, Lowe, Meadows/Zunino
GPP note – Peralta is allowing .182 ISO to righties, and has a low 14.5% strikeout rate over the last month, so this could be a good place to attack him.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds
The Dodgers and Reds are up next, with Kershaw and Miley as our starters. We’ll see how Kershaw does in his second start back, and Miley, well, he seems to like to be either at the bottom or top of the fantasy score sheet, so we’ll see how he does here too.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – J Turner, Seager/T Turner
GPP note – Miley allows .395 wOBA / .202 ISO to righties, and he’ll probably give up a bit here, but if you’re going heavy on the Dodgers, consider running a few hedge lineups with Miley just in case he decides to have a big game. It’s not very likely, but you never know.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Castellanos, Votto
GPP note – It’s hard to know where Kershaw will be, but he didn’t look back in his first game back. This would be a good place to hedge a few lineups, too.
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Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
We get the Orioles and Red Sox next, with Wells and Eovaldi on the mound. This one looks pretty good for the home team, so I’d focus more of my attention over there (though a few one-offs or small stacks from the O’s couldn’t hurt).
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Hays, Mullins
GPP note – Eovaldi allows more power to righties (.194 ISO, vs .125 ISO to lefties), so running a couple or few of them could work here.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Martinez
Red Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts, Renfroe, Devers/Schwarber
GPP note – Wells is allowing lots and lots to righties, so go for some traditional RvL stacks here.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
We get what looks to be another bullpen game here with the Pirates, going up against Alcantara and the Marlins. I think the Marlins will get this one, with Alcantara holding down the Pirates for the most part. He’d make a great alternative to Cole, or if you’ve got some really good value bats in mind, maybe you could stack them over on DraftKings?
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds
GPP note – Tough matchup against Alcantara, who is right up there with Cole in strikeout and statcast numbers. Probably would look elsewhere.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Rojas, De La Cruz
GPP note – Though not a ton to love here, being a bullpen game and this offense and all, but Alcantara can’t win without these guys scoring, so maybe try some small/medium stacks.
Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
Gilbert and the Mariners will face Kowar and the Royals next. This one could be a bit of a coinflip, with both pitchers performing about the same on the stat sheet (though I’d give the nod to Gilbert). I don’t know that this game will be an absolute shootout or anything, but I could see some back-and-forth scoring.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Seager, Kelenic, Haniger
GPP note – Good spot for the lefties here, Kowar is allowing .406 wOBA / .250 ISO to them, and our bullpen, well, sucks. Stack away!
Royals 5 star plays – Perez
Royals 4 star plays – Benintendi, Merrifield
GPP note – Gilbert allows much more to righties, so a handful of power righties here could work – Perez being the best option.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
We get Sampson and the Cubs next, taking on Lauer and the Brewers. This game looks pretty good for the Brewers, as I don’t know that the Cubs will have much of an answer for Lauer here. I don’t know that Sampson will do much to hold these bats down either, as he’s allowing lots to both sides and has a below-average strikeout rate.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ, Contreras
GPP note – Tough matchup here against Lauer, who isn’t allowing much of anything to either side. Small stacks only.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Garcia/Cain, Wong, Vogelbach
GPP note – Sampson allows plenty to both sides (.380 xwOBA to righties, .268 ISO to lefties), so any sort of stacks are the flavor here.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros
We’ll head south once again for the Diamondbacks and Astros, with Gallen and Greinke getting their starts here. While it’s safe to assume the Astros will take this one, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that the Diamondbacks can hang some, given that Greinke isn’t pitching as well as he could be.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Peralta
GPP note – Tough spot for the lefties, but Greinke is actually allowing a lot to righties, so some RvR pivots could work out here. His strikeout rate is also way down (a mere 7.4% over the last month or so), so don’t be afraid to stack against this name-brand pitcher.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, Correa
GPP note – More reverse splits here; Gallen is allowing .388 wOBA / .338 ISO to righties, and about a third of the power to lefties. I’d still attack from both sides, just don’t forget to grab some righties.
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San Diego Padres at St Louis Cardinals
Up next are the Padres and Cardinals, with Arrieta and Happ facing off. This one reminds me a bit of the Seattle/KC game, where I think we could see some decent scoring from both sides. I don’t know that I’d do and entire 150 lineups worth of game stacks or anything, but both offenses are in a spot to do some damage.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Myers
GPP note – More reverse splits; Happ is allowing .394 xwOBA / .257 ISO to lefties (though also .196 ISO to righties). Some medium-sized stacks here could do well.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado, O’Neil/Molina
GPP note – Arrieta isn’t a fearsome pitcher anymore, so you can stack away here. It’s true these guys can dud pretty hard, but if they do, I still don’t see Arrieta putting up a huge score, so I don’t know that I’d worry about hedging too much.
Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers
We’ll wrap up the main slate with the White Sox and Rangers, who will have Giolito and Lyles as their starters. This one looks pretty good for the White Sox, as they’ll have the upper hand on both fronts. I don’t know how much we’ll get from the Rangers (possibly nothing), but Giolito does allow some power here and there.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Robert, Anderson, Garcia
GPP note – Good traditional splits against Lyles, he’s allowing .391 xwOBA / .313 ISO to lefties. These guys can go off in big spurts, so be sure to have some big stacks.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe
GPP note – Mostly a bad matchup here against Giolito, though he does allow .207 ISO to lefties, so you could have a hopeful one-off or two, just in case.
Late slates
Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
We’ll switch to this tiny afternoon slate with the Braves and Giants, with Fried and DeSclafani on the mound. This one looks like it could be a pretty hard-fought game, with both offenses/pitchers showing signs of having high ceilings, but maybe not the best floors. Hedging sounds like a great plan here!
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman, Albies, Duvall/Soler
GPP note – Tough matchup against DeSclafani, though these guys are hitting righties well. A great spot to hedge.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Posey, Crawford/Belt, Ruf
GPP note – Good reverse splits against Fried (.392 wOBA / .271 ISO to lefties, about half or less to righties). Anoth
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Next up are the Athletics and Angels, with Montas and Ohtani getting the nod. A bit of the opposite of the previous game, I think both pitchers here have a pretty solid floor/ceiling, though I don’t know that the offenses will really get a chance to blast off.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Marte, Canha
GPP note – Tough matchup against Ohtani. The best bet is with traditional splits, but there are only so many lefties here.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Walsh
GPP note – Not a great matchup here against Montas either. The lefties are a little better off, but not by much. Definitely more interested in the pitchers in this one.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
And finally, our evening showdown game will feature the Phillies and Mets, with Gibson and Hill on the, well, hill. I like the Mets in this one, as the Phillies aren’t hitting lefties too well, and Hill has been pretty good.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – McCutchen, Galvis/Gregorious
GPP note – Hill allows a moderate amount to righties, though most of these are a bit cold against lefties.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor, Conforto, Alonso/McCann
GPP note – Solid traditional splits here; Gibson is allowing .387 wOBA / .253 ISO to lefties, and hardly anything to righties.
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And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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