Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/17:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Chris Sale
- Dylan Cease
- Adrian Houser
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Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays (-203)
Pitchers:
Twins – Michael Pineda
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am extremely intrigued by this match-up for the Jays. Pineda has been a traditional reverse splits guy on the mound and we know that the Blue Jays can absolutely destroy RHPs. Springer and Dickerson have hit Pineda very well in their careers while Vladdy Jr sets up to be in an absolute smash spot. From the Twins side, I like the idea of using Donaldson as a one-off in his return to Toronto.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, George Springer
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Reds – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This is an exciting match-up as we come down the stretch. Buehler and the Dodgers are on the heels of the Giants while he is also the front runner for the NL Cy Young at the moment. The Reds absolutely NEED to win this series to help themselves in their pursuit of the postseason. Castillo can be lights out of he can have his lights knocked out. The Dodgers present an extreme problem for him, especially in this ballpark.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Gavin Lux
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox (-190) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rangers – Taylor Hearn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Cease is going to end up one of my favorite options on this slate thanks to his K upside. I know that he can be cruising through a start and give up 3 runs out of nowhere but Texas lacks in the danger category. I love this CWS lineup as they look to get completely healthy and rolling heading into the postseason. Luis Robert has been on fire over the last couple of weeks and he is going to end up one of my favorite plays on the slate.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against LHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
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Philadelphia Phillies (-135) @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We get one of the best match-ups of the day right here. I say that because of the implications of this series for both teams in their pursuit of the division title/wild card standing. Wheeler has been absolutely spectacular for the Phillies this season while Walker had a very impressive first half for the Mets. Wheeler has 31 Ks in 29.1 innings against his former team, NYM, this season while allowing just 7 runs. Walker has allowed 9 runs (4 HRs) in 21.1 innings against PHI so there is a route for PHI to score a few. Harper is the guy that I want the most as he just seems to be hitting HRs every night (6 in his last 10 games). He has gone for 10+ DK points in 8 straight games.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jean Segura, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies (-111) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We know that Marquez has been pretty bad on the road this season but I feel like this is one of those spots where he continues his most recent road start and offers some success. He just needs to avoid Soto for the most part and he should be able to pick up a few Ks. Gray was one of the main pieces for the Nats in the Scherzer/Turner trade. He has struggled with his command a bit but has flashed the talent that made him a must-get in that deal for Washington.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Athletics – Cole Irvin
Angels – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Josh Harrison
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against the Angels this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against LHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Orioles – Keegan Akin
Red Sox – Chris Sale
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. I have seen some rumblings that the Red Sox are expected to activate Sale to pitch in this game. He is somebody that would make my shortlist if he were announced this morning. Boston returns home and I think they pick up some momentum on the offensive side of the ball. They are going to find themselves in my top 5 for stacks with Bobby Dalbec making the cover of this article.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Bobby Dalbec, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Jose Iglesias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs this season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros (-216)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Astros – Brandon Bielak
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I would monitor the Astros and their SP plans as I have seen different names floated around. Bielak is a guy that we liked last year for a stretch and while we haven’t seen him start this season, I think we can go there if he’s cheap enough on DK as our SP2. He shouldn’t be extremely stretched out so the upside is capped a bit. We should see the Astros put up some runs but we also know that Bumgarner can surprise at any time.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays (-190)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rays – Luis Patino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Patino has flashed enough this season that I think he’s viable in this spot as he’s been at his best when pitching at home. He was once one of the better SP prospects in all of baseball, in the Padres organization. We know that Mize was the top pick of the MLB draft at one point so the pedigree is there for him but this match-up is not great and we know that DET has nothing to gain from letting him rack up innings on his arm. I like the TB side because they should only see Mize for about 4 and then can get some weaker bullpen arms after. He has given up 15 HRs in 71 road innings this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Kevin Kiermaier
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners (-111) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We just saw the Royals have a series full of offense against OAK, while at home. We could see something similar here as their pitching just isn’t shutting anybody down while the top half of their lineup continues to put pressure on opposing pitchers. Benintendi is one of the hotter bats in baseball right now while Salvador Perez is just hitting HRs and driving in runs at a ridiculous rate.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Jarred Kelenic
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Nicky Lopez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
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Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees (-190)
Pitchers:
Indians – Zach Plesac
Yankees – Corey Kluber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Kluber gets to face off with his former team and I think he carries a little bit of extra stuff in this game. I know he had a great number of years in CLE but he has to be annoyed with the fact that they traded him to Texas. Plesac has been decent but did you know that he was the starter in all 3 of the games in which Cleveland has been no-hit this season? Yeah, I don’t think we see that ever again. I look for the Yankees to hit 2+ HRs at home as they need to start dominating middling pitchers down the stretch.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Bobby Bradley, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Brett Gardner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins (-153)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Wil Crowe
Marlins – Elieser Hernandez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Hernandez is going to be one of my favorite cheaper SP options on this big slate. He has made 1 start against PIT this year and allowed just 1 run in 5 innings to go with 6 Ks. He has 14+ DK points in 3 of his 5 starts since his return from the IL and while that doesn’t sound huge, it’s acceptable at his under $7K DK price point. There isn’t a lot to like from either side for offensive purposes but I do really like the De La Cruz-Sanchez combo as a low-owned mini-stack.
PIT 5-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz, Jesus Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants (-145)
Pitchers:
Braves – Ian Anderson
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I love this SP match-up as Webb has been absolutely dominant this season and Anderson has a TON of upside in his arm. Webb is coming off of his worst start in what feels like 14 years against the Cubs but he still managed to pick up the win. He threw 7 innings of shutout baseball against ATL earlier this season. Anderson shut out the Giants across 5.2 innings earlier this season but the thing that caught me off guard was 0 strikeouts in that performance. He is averaging about a K per inning on the season and is coming off of a 9 K performance so that is looking like an outlier (the 0 Ks).
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 against RHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (-213)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Zach Davies
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Brewers should roll in this series but we know that the Cubs have been a huge pain in our butts as we have tried to pick on them with some solid SPs. Houser should be able to do enough as he has allowed 1 earned or less in 5 of his last 6 starts and in 8 of his last 10 appearances. Davies takes on his former team and he has surprisingly done well against this MIL roster in terms of BvP history.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Frank Schwindel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: Omar Narvaez
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
San Diego Padres @ St Louis Cardinals (-135)
Pitchers:
Padres – Vince Velasquez
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I know I cover baseball and I am generally locked into the info but I had NO idea that the Phillies released Velasquez and then I had zero clues that the Padres signed him recently. He gets the ball tonight, in a HUGE spot for San Diego as they need to start taking 2 of 3 in every series. The good news for them is that the offense should be in a great spot against Mikoles tonight. I have a feeling we see this game end up more like 8-5 than 5-4.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Oakland Athletics
- Boston Red Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Bobby Dalbec, Boston
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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