Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too.
A look at pitchers
We get some weird slates with some “who is actually starting?” games, so we might have to wait for some news to come out before we can really dive in here. Either way, we do have a few solid arms like Gausman and Valdez making appearances, so if nothing else, we can consider them cash game options for now. As always, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to get an idea of where they’re looking, because that’ll be critical today.
Early games
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
It’s a bit of a mixed slate here, depending on which site you’re playing on, but for the sake of having to choose an option for the article, I’ll just call these two the “early games.” Anyway, we kick off the day with the Rockies and Braves, with Marquez and Anderson getting the start. Neither pitcher put up great scores when they met last week, so we’ll see if a change of scenery can make any difference.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon/Cron
GPP note – Blackmon and Cron both have a homer against Anderson, and things didn’t go well for him back on the 4th. Granted that was at Coors, but they’ll be ready for him again here.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman, Albies/Pederson
GPP note – Not the best matchup with how Marquez has been, but there’s a good chunk of BvP here to fall back on.
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
Up next are the Reds and Pirates, with Mahle and Ponce starting off. Ponce (if he does indeed start) will only see 2-3 innings most likely, turning into a bullpen game. That makes hand vs hand matchups kind of pointless here, and it’ll be good to fall back on good hitters like Votto that can hit anything.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto
GPP note – Bullpen game, so if you’re playing this one, it might be worth it to spend up for some bats when you can.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Hayes, Moran
GPP note – Mahle has been decent, though there is a little bit of BvP here. Not much, but maybe enough to get a decent hit or two. Otherwise, I don’t think big stacks will win this one.
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Early slate
Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox
We’ll head over to the early slate (if you’re on FanDuel at least), with the Angels and White Sox and (possibly) Cobb & Lopez on the hill. That’s not 100% on Cobb yet, but we’ll see if they give him the green light or not. Either way, this one doesn’t look great for the Angels, as Lopez is in a good spot to shut them down.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, Walsh
GPP note – Bad matchup against Lopez, and most of this team is fairly cold against righties right now. Might be best to look elsewhere.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Grandal/Garcia
GPP note – It may or may not be Cobb starting, but if it’s any righty, most of these guys are hitting them well. I don’t know that they’ll go bonkers, but they should put up some production.
Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals
Up next are the Athletics and Royals, with Blackburn and Lynch on the mound. Unfortunately for me, this one looks like a good spot for the Athletics to beat up on my poor Royals, so I’ll cross my fingers and hope for the best.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Chapman, Olson/Canha/Marte/Harrison
GPP note – Great traditional splits here; Lynch is giving up .374 xwOBA / .212 ISO, and the bullpen is probably not too far behind. Stack away!
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez/Merrifield, Benintendi
GPP note – Decent splits against Blackburn, who has more power given up to righties (.196 ISO) than lefties (.132 ISO), so a couple power righties here wouldn’t be a bad idea.
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
We’ll wrap up the early games/slates with the Padres and Giants, featuring Detwiler (maybe? for an inning?) and Gausman. The Giants will be looking for another win here, and I suspect they’ll get it, but I do think the Padres can put up some sort of a fight here. I don’t know that a full-on game stack is the right answer, but do consider having pieces of both offenses.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Croneworth/Myers/Hosmer
GPP note – Not a good matchup here, though they are at least somewhat familiar with Gausman. A few bats are hitting righties decently, so small/medium stacks could be okay in tournaments.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Posey, Belt/Crawford, Ruf
GPP note – Looks like a bullpen game, so while we can’t dial in a hand vs hand matchup, I don’t know that it’ll matter too much anyway. Most of this lineup can do some damage, so feel free to keep rolling with them.
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Main slate
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Moving on to the main slate, we start with Montgomery and the Yankees going up against Ellis and the Orioles. It’s Camden Yards, so I’m sure it’ll be bombs away, so both offenses are in play here.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Stanton, Rizzo/Gallo
GPP note – Ellis isn’t giving up much power yet, but his xwOBA to righties is pretty high, so it’s just a matter of time. Hint: stack some righties here.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Mullins, Mountcastle
GPP note – A decent matchup against Montgomery, who is allowing .341 xwOBA / .143 ISO to righties. These guys can really be all-or-nothing sometimes, so I would either fade them or go with big stacks.
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies
Up next are the Cubs and Phillies, and for now we know that Hendricks will start, but not sure about who the Phillies will be using. Alas, it’ll probably be another bullpen game, as this day is just full of questionable starting pitchers.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ, Wisdom/Ortega, Heyward
GPP note – A few of these guys are hitting for good power against righties (mainly the four listed above), so if we get a righty to start, consider jumping on them.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Miller, Galvis, McCutchen
GPP note – Hendricks has been showing some struggles lately, and his strikeout rate is really low (14.9%), so don’t be afraid to jump on these guys. His splits are mostly equal to lefties (.371 wOBA / .222 ISO) as they are righties (.415 wOBA / .262 ISO), so nobody is off limits here.
Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays
Up next are the Tigers and Rays, with what looks to be Alexander and Enns getting the start (subject to change, as the rest of this day has been). They did pitch against each other’s team last week, so I do think we’ll see them, and there’s a good chance they’ll be fresh in each other’s minds. That could give the bats a boost here.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Grossman, Cabrera
GPP note – Most of these guys are running cold against lefties, but since they did just see Enns last week, perhaps they can make something happen here. Like the O’s, I’d go all in or all out, as it’s more likely to be one or the other than somewhere in the middle.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Cruz, Arozarena, Lowe, Zunino, Meadows, Luplow
GPP note – Alexander isn’t allowing a ton of hits, but he is allowing some decent power (.177 / .182 ISO to righties/lefties). This team is hitting lefties very well, so stacks of any size are in play here…though the bigger, the better.
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Our final game of the night will feature our Texas teams, with the Astros and Rangers facing off again. We’ll see Valdez and Otto on the mound, and I know it’s a shocker, but this one looks like another Astros win.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez/Correa
GPP note – The top 2/3 of this lineup are all hitting righties for some power, so they’re all in play. Don’t be afraid of the RvR matchups.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe
GPP note – Not a great matchup here, but Valdez has been a little weaker to lefties (.413 wOBA / .241 ISO) than righties (.256 wOBA / .081 ISO), so if you want to go contrarian, try some lefties here. Lowe is probably your best bet if going for a one-off.
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And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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