Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/29:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Freddy Peralta
- Frankie Montas
- Gerrit Cole
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Cincinnati Reds (-125) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Reds – Luis Castillo
Cubs – Alec Mills
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Seeing the total makes me believe the wind is blowing in at Wrigley so both SPs become very viable, especially Castillo with the way he’s been pitching. Votto is absolutely on a tear right now and I am not going to bet against him putting up a multi-hit game with an extra-base hit. Contreras has had a ton of success against Castillo and that probably continues today as he just feels like one of those guys that lock in on certain pitchers.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Tyler Naquin, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Willson Contreras
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (-190) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Corbin dominated PHI in his one-start against them this season and that’s enough to make me really curious, especially at his DK price point. Wheeler has been spectacular this season but has allowed 7 runs in 16.1 innings against Washington. Both offenses have shown some signs of life so both sides could certainly win you the slate tonight.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies – Game 2
Pitchers:
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Phillies – Vince Velasquez
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this is a 7-inning contest.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox (-111)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Red Sox -Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Sounds like we are going to see some more run in Boston so we will need to pay attention to forecasts. We get two very strong SPs but they are in a tough spot against two very strong offenses. I know we always say that good pitching beats good hitting, but that’s generally a post-season statement. Both of these SPs are capable of putting up big GPP performances but the more likely outcome is that they struggle a bit and we see some offense.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against LHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Angels – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
OAK 5-star plays: Jed Lowrie
4-star plays: Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers (-153)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Alexander Wells
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Both of these teams could end up scratching guys based on trade possibilities, though they haven’t been very active in the rumors. The Tigers just put up 17 runs against the Twins without hitting a single HR. That was insane because the Twins hit 7 of them in the game. I don’t love either offense as a full-stack but mini-stacks should be in our builds.
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eric Haase, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against LHPs this season.
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Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets (-140)
Pitchers:
Braves – Drew Smyly
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Walker is somebody that I always get shares of and while the Braves still have some danger in their lineup, it’s much weaker overall at this point. I think that the Mets could score a few runs but I also think it’s pretty concentrated to a few bats as they rely so much on LHBs in their lineup.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: James McCann, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against LHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers (-177) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Pirates – Chad Kuhl
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am not sure if Escobar will be in the lineup right away for MIL so his status is pretty important for a lineup that I don’t think is actually that strong. Peralta is in a GREAT spot but we know that young pitchers can have troubles focusing in games where they should dominate weak opponents.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Omar Narvaez, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees (-140) @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rays – Luis Patino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This game is extremely important for Cole and the Yankees. They can’t afford to lose games against teams ahead of them in the standings. I expect a stud-type performance out of Cole, as long as he finds a way to get Choi out. Check out Choi’s BvP against Cole one, hot damn. Patino has the talent as he’s been a top pitching prospect in baseball for a few years now and the Yankees offense has certainly struggled. I am curious to see if Gallo will be in the lineup.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs this season.
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Chicago White Sox (-172) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
White Sox – Carlos Rodon
Royals – Carlos Hernandez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Rodon is definitely going to rack up Ks in this one but the Royals have hit him extremely well, at least a handful of them have. Hernandez is a pretty weak SP at this point so the White Sox lineup should be in a great spot. I think I will be overweight on pieces of this game as I just think that there’s offense and I am very much on the over in this game.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-121) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Dodgers – David Price
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Price has been solid since entering the rotation but he’s being brought along slowly. His DK price is really tempting so I am going to be all over him there. The Dodgers have had some success against Cueto and I just love their upside for GPPs so they are going to end up a top stack for me on the early slate.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Curt Casali, Buster Posey
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (-260)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Musgrove lines up to be one of the best pitching options on the slate while the Padres offense could be in for a great night. I know that Freeland has been better as the season has gone on but I just think the Padres understand how important these games are as they look up at the Giants and Dodgers.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- San Diego Padres
- Oakland Athletics
- Toronto Blue Jays
MLB Dinger of the Day – Fernando Tatis Jr, San Diego
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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