Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/28:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Walker Buehler
- Zack Wheeler
- Blake Snell
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Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Cubs – Zach Davies
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Homeruns have come in this series and I think we see a few more in today’s game. Mahle has allowed 4 HRs in 15 innings against the Cubs this season while 8 of the 9 HRs allowed by Davies have been at Wrigley this season. Mahle has been dominant on the road this season but this one just feels like an 8-6 type game to me.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto, Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
Houston Astros (-130) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Astros bats have started out the last couple of games hot and then slowed down enough to let the Mariners claw back in. I don’t really love the idea of stacking the Mariners but Odorizzi can get smacked around. He’s had such a weird season to this point. The total is low enough that I do think both SPs can be GPP viable.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against LHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (-190)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Corbin dominated PHI in his one-start against them this season and that’s enough to make me really curious, especially at his DK price point. Wheeler has been spectacular this season but has allowed 7 runs in 16.1 innings against Washington. Both offenses have shown some signs of life so both sides could certainly win you the slate tonight.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-121) @ Boston Red Sox – Game 1
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Red Sox – Garrett Richards
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Remember that this is a 7-inning contest. Yet again we should have a very popular match-up between these two dynamic teams. There is some plus BvP, mostly on the Blue Jays side. Ray is the kind of arm that could surprise us at very low ownership. We need to see if JD Martinez is in the lineup as he appeared to jam his wrist last night.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays (-121) @ Boston Red Sox – Game 2
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Steven Matz
Red Sox – Tanner Houck
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels (-203)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Chi Chi Gonzalez
Angels – Andrew Heaney
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Heaney is capable of shutting teams down but he’s also capable of giving up 4-5 runs in an inning. The Rockies are at their best against LHPs but I am not sure that’s enough. I really want to see the Angels healthy with Trout and Rendon back in the middle of the lineup. The game total is high but I don’t necessarily love either side as a full-stack option.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs this season.
Miami Marlins @ Baltimore Orioles (-115)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Jordan Holloway
Orioles – Jorge Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Oh man, the Marlins are probably the team that I have stacked the least this season but they take on an SP that I find myself stacking against every week. This just feels like a game where a couple of one-off plays hit HRs and then it’s just a bunch of random singles with maybe a double added in and suddenly it finishes 6-4.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
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Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (-145)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Wily Peralta
Twins – JA Happ
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. The Twins bullpen blew another one last night as Robles gave up a game-tying slam in the 9th. Peralta has thrown the ball well for Detroit but he did get smacked around in his last start. He is starting to walk a few guys and his Ks are pretty low so there’s some upside to a Twins stack. The Tigers are in play only because Happ can get lit up. He has given up 11 runs in 18 innings against Detroit this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against LHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets (-121)
Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Mets – Tylor Megill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Mets aren’t a very dangerous offense against LHPs and they have had struggles against Fried this season. Megill keeps surprising but he has allowed 5 runs in 9.1 innings against ATL but he does have 12 Ks. I feel much more confident in stacking the Braves, despite the fact the Mets are favored.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against LHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Pirates – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tyrone Taylor, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays (-125)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Rays – Michael Wacha
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I would guess that Cortes is only going to go 3-4 innings in this one so if the Yankees can get the lead early, we would see the strong side of their bullpen which takes away from some TB bats. A few of the Yankees have hit Wacha decently but a bunch of actually struggled which caught me off guard. I am down with stacking either side for GPPs and using one-offs in all contests.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Cleveland Indians (-111)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Kwang-Hyun Kim
Indians – Zach Plesac
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Kim has allowed 2 runs or less in 7 of his last 8 starts. He looks strong out there and does a great job of limiting contact. Plesac has given up 9 HRs in his last 6 starts so I think we need to be on the Cardinals’ side for GPPs because of the chance that they pick up 3 HRs in this game.
STL 5-star plays: Dylan Carlson
4-star plays: Harrison Bader, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
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Chicago White Sox (-177) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Royals – Kris Bubic
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Giolito’s performances have been all over the map as he’s allowed 6 runs in 11 innings against KC but he has held them to a .220 average. He has the upside but there’s a TON of volatility right now. The White Sox lengthened their lineup a bit with the return of Eloy and I think they are in a great spot tonight.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers (-105)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This is yet another game where I don’t feel all that great about looking into it. Both pitchers are capable enough to contain the weak opposition but they aren’t strong enough for me to want to jam into my builds. Gallo HRd last night and we know he’s on the trading block but the LvL match-up can be worrisome. Varsho has been on fire for the D’Backs and makes an interesting one-off if his price is right.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against LHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-145) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This should be a great game to watch just in a baseball sense. DeSclafani has struggled TERRIBLY against the Dodgers this season as he has allowed 18 runs in 18.1 innings. To put that into perspective, he has allowed 21 runs in 101 innings against the rest of baseball. On the other side, Buehler has allowed just 3 earned runs in 27 innings against the Giants on the season.
LAD 5-star plays: Chris Taylor
4-star plays: Will Smith, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against RHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics @ San Diego Padres (-135)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The battle of the LHPs who take on offenses that have shown some struggles against LHPs so far this season. Manaea has shown to be the better SP this season but he takes on the tougher offense. Snell has been dominant at home so that intrigues me and he looks to be rounding into form, despite never knowing how many pitches he’s going to throw. I always stack both offenses and while I might cut back on them some in this one, they are still going to find their way into my lineups.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Austin Nola
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Chicago White Sox
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Cincinnati Reds
MLB Dinger of the Day – Kris Bryant, Cubs
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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