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Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 5/9:

My Take on an Optimal MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB DFS slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the  MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.

• Jacob deGrom – deGrom comes in as the highest-priced pitcher on both sites, but for good reason. He’s don’t an ERA and a WHIP under one this season to go along with a 32% hard contact rate going back to the start of last season. The matchup with the Dbacks is a good one as well, he brings the Mets in as massive -306 favorites so his win and quality start equity is pretty large as well.
• Kenta Maeda – Let’s go to the mid-range and check out Mr. Maeda. He had a nice bounce-back game last time where he went 5.1 innings on his way to a win and eight strikeouts. He gets another elite matchup with the Tigers in this one. He comes in as a -143 favorite with the Tigers having an implied run total of just 3.5 here. I especially like him on FanDuel where he’s just $7.4k, that’s way too cheap.
• Dane Dunning – I always like to round the pitcher’s section out with a dumpster diver play if you want to spend up on some more bats, today it’s Dane Dunning. He’s the cheapest pitcher on the slate over on DraftKings and under $7k on FanDuel. He has been pretty solid this season and gets a great matchup with a below-average offense in the Mariners. He has at least 5 strikeouts in four of his last five starts and a guy that I don’t think kills you here, which is essentially what you’re looking for in this price range.

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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:

Boston Red Sox (-131) @ Baltimore Orioles (+121)

Implied Run Totals:

Red Sox – 4.8 IRT

Orioles – 4.3 IRT

Rundown:

Nick Pivetta takes the mound here for Boston and looks like a pretty solid option in this one as a -131 favorite. He has over a 25% strikeout rate on the season and this Baltimore lineup isn’t one that I’m necessarily afraid of getting burned by. The Orioles will send Dean Kremer to the hill, I have no issue stacking the Sox against him. The Red Sox have been one of the best offenses in the league and Kremer is one start removed from giving up six earned to the Yankees.

BOS 5-star plays: JD Marinez, Rafael Devers

4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Alex Verdugo, Hunter Renfroe

GPP Note: I think Boston is in a pretty solid spot here and full-stacks are definitely in play.

BAL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Trey Mancini, DJ Stewart

GPP Note: I’ll have much more interest in Pivetta than this Orioles offense.

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Washington Nationals (+148) @ New York Yankees (-162)

Implied Run Totals:

Nationals – 4.0 IRT

Yankees – 5.1 IRT

Rundown:

Joe Ross gets the ball for the Nats and has been a bit of a roller coaster as of late. He gave up 10 earned to the Cardinals a few starts ago but has bounced back a bit over his last two outings. I won’t have any interest in starting him as a pitcher option here, but I want to gauge the interest in a Yankees stack, and I think it’s definitely viable. Domingo German will get the start for the Yankees, he’s a guy I think you can get to here, he comes in with a 23% strikeout rate on the season and isn’t a guy that will break the bank if you’re going cheap at SP.

WAS 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto

GPP Note: Just these one-offs for me, I like German a good enough amount to keep me off.

NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu

4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres

GPP Note: The Yankees are in play as a full-stack, the wind blowing out in Yankee Stadium should help lead to some runs here.

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Arizona Diamondbacks (+264) @ New York Mets (-298)

Implied Run Totals:

Diamondbacks – 2.4 IRT

Mets – 4.2 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Jacob deGrom in the pitcher’s section, it’s hard to go wrong with him here, he’s the top option on the slate. That means you probably shouldn’t be stacking up the Dbacks, and if you are, I would want it as a 5-10% hedge in MME. Riley Smith gets the ball for Arizona, he’s been pretty meh this season, so not a guy I love here. The Mets have shown signs of breaking out over the past three games as well, so I’m going to stay away and maybe even consider a Mets stack or two, but we know how much they love giving deGrom run support (**whispers.. they don’t).

ARI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: I have no interest in much of anything against deGrom.

NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor

4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Peter Alonso, Michael Conforto, Dom Smith

GPP Note: The Mets have shown signs of life lately, and it seems like the top of that order might start to be getting hot… I like them for GPPs.

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Milwaukee Brewers (+123) @ Miami Marlins (-134)

Implied Run Totals:

Brewers – 3.3 IRT

Marlins – 3.8 IRT

Rundown:

Brett Anderson is making his first start since returning from the IL here, and I guess you could make a case for him, but I think there are better options in his price range. Sandy Alcantara takes the mound for the Marlins, he faced the Brewers once already this season and went 7 innings on his way to a win. This Brewers lineup is extremely watered down right now so I have no issue going right back to him here.

MIL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Travis Shaw, Avisail Garcia

GPP Note: Just one-offs here, Alcantara is a really strong pitching option.

MIA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Garrett Cooper

GPP Note: I just don’t have a ton of interest in stacking a Marlins team in their home ballpark. Anderson is a pretty big ground ball guy as well.

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Minnesota Twins (-145) @ Detroit Tigers (+134)

Implied Run Totals:

Twins – 4.1 IRT

Tigers – 3.4 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Kenta Maeda at the top of this article and think he makes sense as a pitching option on this slate, the Tigers aren’t exactly the best hitting team there is, so I like targeting them here with Maeda who’s coming off a great start last time out. Matt Boyd will toe the rubber for the Tigers and has been really good this season outside of his last start against the White Sox. He has no business being this cheap even though we know the Twins have some lefty-mashers in that lineup, it’s also missing some bigger bats like Kiriloff, Sano, and Buxton.

MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz

4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Willians Astudillo

GPP Note: Probably just those righty power bats for me, I like Boyd more than I probably should here.

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: I’ll have a lot of interest in Maeda here, so no Tigers for me.

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Toronto Blue Jays (+133) @ Houston Astros (-145)

Implied Run Totals:

Blue Jays – 4.1 IRT

Astros – 5.0 IRT

Rundown:

Nate Pearson will take the mound for the Jays in this one, he’ll make his season debut here after having a pretty solid 2020 campaign. I might have more interest if the matchup wasn’t so rough, but keep an eye on the start for him. The Astros will send Zack Greinke to the hill as a -145 favorite. He’s been pretty below average in his last two starts, going for 6.8 DraftKings points in both of them, I think I would rather just go up to deGrom or down to Alcantara in this price range. If you’re on FanDuel you could go down to arms like Boyd and even Ynoa, he’s a bit cheaper on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings, overall I just don’t love him here.

TOR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero, Marcus Semien

GPP Note: I can’t say I love Greinke here, but I also don’t love the Jays bats against him, more of a stay away for me.

HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman

4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker

GPP Note: The nice thing about a Astros stack is you can get it pretty cheap if you wrap it around with guys like Kyle Tucker and Myles Straw.

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Chicago White Sox (-147) @ Kansas City Royals (+135)

Implied Run Totals: 

White Sox – 4.2 IRT

Royals – 3.4 IRT

Rundown:

Lucas Giolito has gotten on track a bit over his last two games after getting lit up by Boston a few games ago. He gets a great matchup with the Royals here who have been sneaky good to start the season. I would think Giolito comes in a bit under-owned due to the other plays in his price range, but he has a 30+% strikeout rate on the season and comes in as a decent-sized favorite, I like him in tournaments at the very least. Mike Minor will take the mound for the Royals, and I think he’s a guy we can stack against fairly confidently. He’s struggling with walks and isn’t afraid to give up a home run or two, so I like the Sox a good deal here.

CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson

4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Yermin Mercedes, Yasmani Grandal, Andrew Vaughn

GPP Note: I like the White Sox a good deal as a full-stack on this slate.

KCR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi, Jorge Soler

GPP Note: I have more interest in Giolito than these Royals bats, but you can make a case for a one-off or two.

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Colorado Rockies (+142) @ St Louis Cardinals (-154)

Implied Run Totals: 

Rockies – 3.2 IRT

Cardinals – 3.9 IRT

Rundown:

German Marquez takes the mound for the Rockies here, he’s looking to bounce back from a shelling he got from the Giants last time out where he didn’t make it out of the first inning. He does get a park upgrade here as he won’t have to deal with the elements of Coors field. That being said, more of a tournament guy than anything for me here. Adam Wainwright will get the start for the Cardinals, I have no issue using him as an SP2 or a cheap SP on FanDuel, this Rockies lineup isn’t so great outside of Coors.

COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon

4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story

GPP Note: Probably just one-offs for me in some of these hotter Rockies bats.

STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado

4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, Paul Goldschmidt

GPP Note: I like the Cardinals here but I think they’re more of a mini-stack team than anything.

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Pittsburgh Pirates (+143) @ Chicago Cubs (-156)

Implied Run Totals: 

Pirates – 2.7 IRT

Cubs – 3.4 IRT

Rundown:

Tyler Anderson will take the mound for the Pirates in this one, he’s actually been pretty solid this season but his worst start came against this same Cubs team. I guess if you’re looking for a punt on DraftKings for an SP2 you could make a case, but I think that’s a bit of a reach. I do think you can get to Kyle Hendricks here who will get the start for the Cubs. He comes in as a -156 favorite against a Pirates team with an implied run total under three. Hendricks has started the season pretty slow but is coming off a great outing against the Dodgers where he threw a complete game (7 innings) on his way to a win.

PIT 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds

GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Hendricks here than anything.

CHC 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo

GPP Note: The Cubs are more of a mini-stack option for me.

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Seattle Mariners (+125) @ Texas Rangers (-136)

Implied Run Totals: 

Mariners – 4.0  IRT

Rangers – 4.6  IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Dane Dunning at the start of this article and just think he’s far too cheap considering the spot he’s in. The Mariners aren’t generally going to kill you from an offensive perspective so I like taking a shot on him if you need some savings. Justus Sheffield gets a pretty decent matchup as well, this Rangers lineup has a decent amount of strikeouts in it, but I would rather just save the money and go down to Dunning if you’re in this range. I’m not in love with either of these stacks either, both pitchers are strong enough to keep me off bad offenses.

SEA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Kyle Lewis

GPP Note: Just one-offs here, maybe a hedge stack if you end up going real heavy on Dunning.

TEX 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Nate Lowe

GPP Note: Similar story here, just the power one-offs.

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Late MLB games:

San Diego Padres (-) @ San Francisco Giants (-)

Implied Run Totals: 

Padres – N/A IRT

Giants – N/A IRT

Rundown:

We don’t have any sort of spread or implied total here as we wait for the Padres to confirm a pitcher, all signs point to Chris Paddack making his return here, but keep an eye on that. If it’s Paddack, I think I’ll want to see that he’s returning in good form before I run to play him. Johnny Cueto will get the start for the Giants, it’s his first start since 4/14 as he’s been on the IL since then with an injury. Same thing here, I’ll need to see it from him first, but he’s looked good this season.

SDP 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Trent Grisham, Eric Hosmer

GPP Note: Cueto has been good enough this season for me not to go too crazy here, but there’s still a lot of firepower in this offense.

SFG 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Buster Posey, Evan Longoria

GPP Note: Paddack has been up and down this year, so if you think he returns a bit rusty here, I have no issue with a little Giants action.

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Tampa Bay Rays (+107) @ Oakland Athletics (-115)

Implied Run Totals: 

Rays – 3.7 IRT

Athletics – 3.9 IRT

Rundown:

Rookie Shane McClanahan will get the start for the Rays here, he’s a guy I think you can get to here due to his high strikeout rate. He likely won’t go too deep into the game, but at this price tag, a 32.3% strikeout rate is pretty dang interesting. Cole Irvin will get the start for the A’s in this one and has been really good for DFS purposes as of late. He has at least 20 DraftKings points in four straight games including an eight-inning outing last time out where he struck out nine guys.

TBR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows, Yandy Diaz

GPP Note: I think I’ll end up riding the heater that Cole Irvin is on rather than stacking this offense up.

OAK 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Ramon Laureano

GPP Note: I think you can have an interest in McClanahan and still have interest in the A’s. He won’t be in there long but should rack up k’s and the A’s can get to this bullpen as well.

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Los Angeles Dodgers (-184) @ Los Angeles Angels (+168)

Implied Run Totals: 

Dodgers – 5.3 IRT

Angels – 3.8 IRT

Rundown:

Trevor Bauer is pretty clearly the SP1 on the later slate, if you can make him work, do it. Jose Quintana on the other hand has been a guy I’ve been stacking against all season long and something I’ll do again here with this loaded Dodgers offense. Quintana has a 40+% hard contact rate on the season and that’s the number I look for when stacking offenses, this Dodgers offense will be the one I target here on the late slate.

LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Justin Turner

4-star plays: Corey Seager, Will Smith, Max Muncy

GPP Note: I love the Dodgers stack here, load ’em up.

LAA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani

GPP Note: It’s tough to love anything against Bauer.

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Philadelphia Phillies (-110) @ Atlanta Braves (+102)

Implied Run Totals: 

Phillies – 3.9 IRT

Braves – 3.7 IRT

Rundown:

This should be a fun pitching matchup to round out the day of baseball with Aaron Nola and Huascar Ynoa. Nola has a 27.7% strikeout rate on the season which is all good but gets a really tough matchup with the Braves. I think you kind of have to go with Nola on the showdown slate, but if you want to get wacky and pay up for some of these bats to be different, I get it. Ynoa has been really good as of late as well, he gets the better matchup here, I like him at this price tag as well.

PHI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto

GPP Note: No issue with the Phillies as a whole, they get the better matchup of the two offenses.

ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna

4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley

GPP Note: It’s the more difficult matchup, but this offense has some firepower to it.

Stacks of the Day: Main MLB Slate

1. New York Mets: I know they’ve been bad to start the season and they generally don’t give deGrom a ton of run support but hear me out on this one. They’ve shown signs of life lately especially at the top of the order with guys like Lindor and McNeil who were really struggling to start the season. They’re underpriced as well relative to where they were to start the year off. Not to mention, they have a lot of speed and power upside, so they have a lot of ways to get you there… I have a sneaky suspicion that they’re going to be the stack to be high on today.
2. Chicago White Sox: To the south side! The White Sox come in with a 4.2 implied run total against Mike Minor here. The implied run total isn’t great, but there really aren’t any wild totals on the main slate to begin with. Minore has given up at least three earned runs in three of his last four starts and has struggled a bit with walks. If he starts walking guys, one of these big bats in the White Sox lineup is going to make it hurt. I like them a good amount especially since you can make a wrap-around stack with the cheap bats at the bottom of the lineup with guys like Andrew Vaughn and Nick Madrigal.
3. New York Yankees: It’s pretty tough not to like the Yankees on this slate, they come in with the highest implied run total on the slate and get a good matchup with Joe Ross. Ross is giving up a 35.9% hard contact rate which is one of the higher rates on the slate, not to mention the wind is blowing out in a small ballpark in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees can be pretty boom or bust due to the home run equity in the lineup, but I think they’re a strong stacking option here.

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MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – Yasmani Grandal (DK – $4.6k; FD – $2.8k)

I’m just hoping Grandal is in the lineup since catchers on Sundays can be a little tough to predict, but assuming he’s in there, I love him here. His numbers against lefties have been much better this season with a 0.556 SLG and a 0.461 wOBA. The White Sox are my number two stack on the slate, and he’s a big reason why. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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