Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Matt, aka mdellagnese14 on Twitter! With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 5/24:
May 18, 2021; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Blake Snell (4) pithes against the Colorado Rockies during the first inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
My Take on an Optimal MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB DFS slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. I’m a big believer in recent trends when looking at teamsm these pitchers are facing, more specifically the last 2 weeks. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad (for the MAIN slate starting at 7pm est).
- Austin Gomber (7k FD, 5.6k DK): Look, I doubt many people will be on him here tonight, but he’s actually in a fairly good spot. If you look at his splits, he’s actually been better in Coors this year, which is strange for a pitcher in COL, but he really has his numbers inflated by 1 bad start on the road against the Giants where he allowed 9 ER. Since that start, he’s had 4 total starts. Allowing fewer than 2 ER in 3 of the 4 and getting over a K per inning. He really stood out to me because the Mets come into this game striking out at a 26.3% clip to LHP in the L14 days and have a .225 batting average with a .131 ISO and .271 wOBA. The Mets can throw out a mix of lefties and righties out there too. He’s been much better against LHB, which isn’t a surprise being a lefty. I do worry a little about the righties for the Mets, but I do think he has some upside here and I like his price a lot, especially on DK as an SP2.
- Blake Snell (9.3k FD, 8.9k DK) Interesting spot here for Snell. MIL had gotten Yelich back, but it is a LvL matchup. Coming into this game, the Brewers have not been hitting against lefties. Over the last 2 weeks, they have a 22.5% K rate while hitting just .139 and have a miniscule ISO of .050 with a wOBA of .213. Snell comes into this game with a 33% K rate on the season, but he’s walking guys at a high rate. He too has had struggles on the road, but he will be able to limit the lefty power from the Brewers as he’s only allowed 4 hits to lefties all season and they have a .148 wOBA against him. I think he has upside in GPPs here tonight against MIL.
- Lance Lynn (10k FD, 9.3k DK) I think Lynn will be fairly popular here tonight. While writing this, I’m watching the Cards/Cubs game and they are 0-0 in the 9th. If this game goes into extras, they could be a bit tired in this one especially having to travel once their game is over. Lynn had a rough time last start, but he’s really only had 2 bad starts all season. The two big power bats for STL (Goldschmidt and Arenado) are a combined 6-34 (.176 avg) against Lynn. The two starts he’s really struggled in are two starts where he only was able to get 2 strikeouts. STL isn’t striking out a ton to RHP in the L14 days, but with their game ending late and CWS having time to prepare I give him the advantage here. He’s been outstanding at home, allowing just a .218 wOBA to hitters and has 32 K’s in 25 innings, limiting hitters to just a .172 batting average.
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EARLY MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks (Games at 1:07 and 6:40 pm est)
Tampa Bay Rays (-110) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-110)
Starting Pitchers
TB: Ryan Yarbrough (L)
TOR: Ross Stripling (R)
Rundown:
Vegas is seeing this game as a pretty even game. These guys just played 3 games and are playing an odd 4 game set that is continuing to Monday. TB has won 10 straight games coming into this one and was able to come back Sunday afternoon to win the game 6-4. Ryan Yarbrough has not been that great and neither has Stripling. I expect this game to be fairly high scoring with both offenses having some great hitters. Over the last 2 weeks, TB has been swinging a very hot bat and Stripling has allowed more than 3 ER in 4 of his 6 starts this season so far. TOR has struggled against Yarbrough over their careers, hitting .179 as a team, but they have a few guys with some power bats against him.
TBR 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Ji-Man Choi
4-star plays: Manuel Margot (6-13 2 HR off Stripling), Austin Meadows, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: The Rays are on fire of late, they come into this winning 10 straight and have a good matchup against Stripling. Over the L14 days to RHP, they have a .274 ISO.
TOR 5-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez (3 HR off Yarbrough), Marcus Semien,
GPP Note: Yarbrough has been meh this year, but TOR has some great power bats in their lineup. Their BvP isn’t great, and I do favor the Rays offense in this one, but TOR is hitting .281 against RHP in L14 days, but low ISO at just .105.
Philadelphia Phillies (+110) @ Miami Marlins (-120)
Starting Pitchers
PHI: Zach Eflin (R)
MIA: Trevor Rogers (L)
Rundown:
Pretty close game in this one by Vegas numbers. I agree with Vegas and giving the Marlins a nice little leg up though. Eflin has had times where he can explode and the Marlins have some pretty good BvP against him, hitting .306 against him with 5 HR and have a low K rate. Eflin has been able to get deep into games, but can allow some runs. He can have a good game and go 6+ innings, with about 6-7 strikeouts though. Rogers has been great all season for MIA getting well over a K per inning and PHI is striking out 30.3% of the time to LHP. I love the spot for Rogers here and think Miami wins this game.
PHI 5-Star Plays: None
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Don’t really love the Phillies here. They have not been good against lefties, but I would want to focus on their Right-Handed power bats in this one.
MIA 5-star plays: Brian Anderson
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Miguel Rojas, Garrett Cooper, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: I like MIA a bit in this game. They have some good numbers against Eflin with 3 guys hitting homers and Duvall and Anderson each have 2 HR off him. He can go deep into games, but MIA is pesky.
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MAIN MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Colorado Rockies (+110) @ New York Mets (-130)
Starting Pitchers:
COL: Austin Gomber (L)
NYM: David Peterson (L)
Rundown:
This game has a total of just 7 runs right now, but leaning on the over and I can see it going up a little. COL has been hitting better against LHP. I have some GPP interest in Gomber if you read my pitching picks above as to why I like him. NYM has some power, but he’s been pretty good of late. Peterson has been good this year too and hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER since his first start this season. COL can struggle on the road so there is some merit in going to Peterson tonight. NYM has a ton of injuries in their lineup and their lineup could be very funky here tonight, leaving me with little faith that they can even hit Gomber.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story
4-star plays: Garrett Hampson, C.J. Cron, Josh Fuentes
GPP Note: I like a little mini stack with COL here. Fuentes has been on fire of late too and he’s a great piece in their stack. COL comes into this game with a .342 average and .233 ISO to LHP in L14.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I don’t trust the Mets offense and really can’t even recommend plays with their lineup likely all funky with a ton of guys on the IL. Their offense has really struggled of late to lefties and I give the big favor to COL in this one
Cleveland Indians (+100) @ Detroit Tigers (-110)
Starting Pitchers
CLE: Sam Hentges (L)
DET: Spencer Turnbull (R)
Rundown:
Intersting game here with the Tigers being favorited early. Hentges has been awful on the road in his one start where he allowed 8 ER in 5 innings this year. DET is a pesky team too. Turnbull gets his first start after throwing a no hitter last week, and guys who do that can tend to struggle. CLE is an offense that is struggling right now against RHP, but I think they will score a few runs off him tonight.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: I don’t really like how CLE has been hitting of late against righties. These 3 are my main guys that I like here and you can throw in Naylor for more GPP exposure.
DET 5-star plays: Robbie Grossman
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Really have interest in DET as a low-owned GPP stack tonight. They have some guys who hit for a good average and can single a pitcher out of the game.
San Diego Padres (-110) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-110)
Starting Pitchers
SDP: Blake Snell (L)
MIL: Brandon Woodruff (R)
Rundown:
Tough game to target hitters in with both teams having good starters on the mound here tonight. I like both pitchers in this game for GPP purposes and Snell can even be considered in cash games. Woodruff has the tougher matchup with SD hitting the ball well against RHP and not striking out too much. This game will be more one-offs from me, mainly from the SD side, but I don’t have a ton of interest in the hitters
SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Keep an eye on Grisham and Machado to see if they play in this. If both are out of the lineup, Tatis would be my only play here as a one-off in GPPs.
MIL 5-star plays: None
3-star plays (More as one-offs): Avisail Garcia, Kolten Wong, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: I really like Snell in this one and MIL is struggling against lefties. One-offs or fade for me.
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Baltimore Orioles (-106) @ Minnesota Twins (-104)
Starting Pitchers
BAL: John Means (L)
MIN: Matt Shoemaker (R)
Rundown:
Means has been really good for BAL this year, so it’s hard to target him, but MIN can really hit lefties. He’s only been able to strikeout 9 over his last 2 starts which does worry me after his no hitter at the beginning of the month. Shoemaker has been pretty shaky all season here and BAL can be a dangerous offense, but they are struggling against righties of late. I usually like to use Baltimore against lefties, but Shoemaker isn’t anyone that I would be afraid of. I like BAL as a low owned GPP stack.
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: I have interest in BAL against a bad starter here. These 4 would be my main options for GPP stacks against the maker of Shoes.
MIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Mitch Garver,
GPP Note: Tough matchup against Means here as he’s looked great this year. Some injuries could hurt these Twins with Cruz, Kepler, and Polanco all DTD with various injuries.
St. Louis Cardinals (+135) @ Chicago White Sox (-145)
Starting Pitchers
STL: Kwang Hyun Kim (L)
CWS: Lance Lynn (R)
Rundown:
The Cardinals just played an extra inning game last night against the Cubs and lost in 10 innings. Lance Lynn has been really good this year and you can read above in the pitcher breakdown as to why I like him here. Been great most of the season outside of 2 starts and has only allowed runs in 3 of his 7 starts this season. Kim has also been really good for the Cards, he doesn’t normally go too deep into games though, so thats a concern, but has only allowed more than 1 ER once this year. CWS has some massive power against LHP though so I would be worried to use Kim in GPPs. Lynn is a great option though.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: With how well Lynn has started, I’m not a big fan of them here outside of maybe a Nolan or Goldschmidt one-off in GPPs. With travel and a extra inning game, I don’t trust them much.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu,
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Yermin Mercedes
GPP Note: I really like the White Sox here against the lefty. Cards may come out struggling here with travel last night late into the night. CWS has a team ISO of .195 to LHP in L14 days.
Seatte Mariners (+140) @ Oakland A’s (-150)
Starting Pitchers
SEA: Yusei Kikuchi (L)
OAK; Frankie Montas (R)
Rundown:
This is an interesting game here. Both pitchers have over 4.20 ERA’s and MOntas has struggled with allowing a bunch of hits. He hasn’t really gotten blown up this year, but doesn’t normally K a ton of hitters either. Kikuchi is projected to start this game tonight, but he has been feeling ill recently, so we have to keep an eye on that. If he does start though, he’s been just over a K per inning this year and even though he’s allowed 3 ER in his last 3 starts, he’s been able to get strikeouts to help that and has 4 straight QS. OAK is good against lefties though, so its a hard trust. Montas makes for a nice GPP option though as SEA comes into this game with the 5th highest K% against RHP and are hitting just .167
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager, Kyle Lewis
GPP Note: SEA has been struggling a lot of late and aren’t really consistent. A team thats been no-hit twice this year is hard to trust, even in a decent matchup. They do have some power though.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano
4-star plays: Mark Canha (if he plays), Seth Brown
GPP Note: If Kikuchi does start, I have more interest in the A’s here tonight. They have some guys who can really hit lefties and have the power. If Canha starts I like him alot leading off. They do have a .179 ISO to LHP in L14 days.
Stacks of the Day: Main MLB Slate
- Chicago White Sox: Always love me some White Sox when they face a lefty. They come off a rough series against the Yankees over the weekend, bu they have a good matchup with Kim here tonight. They have just under a .200 ISO in their last 14 days against LHP and guys like Abreu and Anderson can absolutely MASH lefties.
- Detriot Tigers: Low owned stack that I really love here tonight. Hentges struggled on his 2 starts on the road this year allowing 8 ER in just 5 innings. DET is hitting .278 against LHP in the last 2 weeks and though they don’t have a ton of power, they can find other ways to score.
- Oakland Athletics: This was tough for me to find a top stack that I like. Not much stands out on this small main slate. I like the matchup for OAK here though against the lefty. Over the last 2 weeks they have a .277 average with a .179 ISO against lefties.
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MLB DFS Dinger of the Day –Kyle Seager (3k FD, 4.2k DK)
Seager comes into this game hitting the ball fairly well on the road. He has been great against RHP on the road too, hitting .316 with 5 of his 7 HR to RHP coming on the road. This isn’t an easy park to hit homers in, but Montas has allowed 1.72 HR/9 on the season. Seager has a .386 ISO on the road against righties with an OPS of 1.086 and .702 slg. Also, on the road against RHP, he has a 55.1% hard hit rate. I like his value more on FD, but he’s not bad on DK either.
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