Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 5/15:
Apr 27, 2021; Los Angeles, California, USA; Cincinnati Reds right fielder Nick Castellanos (2) is greeted by right fielder Jesse Winker (33) after scoring a run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the seventh inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
My Take on an Optimal MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB DFS slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Trevor Bauer – Bauer surprisingly enough comes in as the highest-priced pitcher on just one site today… Carlos Rodon leads the pack on FanDuel but is my top pitcher on today’s slate. Bauer gets a matchup with a light-hitting Marlins team that is going to struggle to put up runs in this spot. Bauer has a 35.5% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season and is my preferred spend-up option on today’s slate.
- Domingo German – To the mid-range we go! German gets a nice matchup here against the Orioles and comes in as a -162 favorite so his win equity is pretty nice here. The Orioles come in with an implied total of 4.0 runs as well, which isn’t the best but isn’t the worst. I just love attacking this Orioles offense with opposing pitching. German’s strikeout rate on the season is 23.7% which is more than good enough for him to pay off his salary at this price tag.
- Triston McKenzie – I always like to provide a salary-saver as this last piece and although this isn’t exactly your usual dumpster diver guy, I think McKenzie is underpriced on both sites. FanDuel I get it a bit more, his quality start equity isn’t huge just due to how young he is, they’re not going to push him, but he has at least 87 pitches in three of his last four games and gets a great matchup with the Mariners here. A 32.6% strikeout rate in that $7k range isn’t something you see all that often, I’ll have a good amount of interest in the youngster in this one.
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Early MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
New York Mets (-) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Mets – N/A IRT
Rays – N/A IRT
Rundown:
I don’t think it was officially announced yet, but I believe Joey Lucchesi will get the start for the Mets while Shane McClanahan will be his mound opponent in this one. Lucchesi had his best outing of the season last time out but still not a guy that I’m going to trust to throw 5+ innings, I don’t know that he’s fully stretched out yet as he hasn’t gone over 63 pitches at all this season, but on a showdown slate, I get locking in the points here. McClanahan would be my much-preferred option in this one, he’s got a 30+% strikeout rate on the season and this Mets offense hasn’t done a whole lot this season, although they have shown signs of life lately.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Just because I like McClanahan doesn’t mean I won’t have some interest in the Mets bats, he just happens to be the better pitching option on a showdown slate. Don’t be afraid to play a few of these guys.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Tampa would be my preferred offense in this one.
Oakland Athletics (+128) @ Minnesota Twins (-139)
Implied Run Totals:
Athletics – 4.0 IRT
Twins – 4.6 IRT
Rundown:
Cole Irvin will draw the start for the A’s and has been really good this season, but coming off his worst start of the season last time out and coming in as an underdog here against Jose Berrios. Speaking of Berrios, he has a 26.1% strikeout rate to go along with a 33.2% hard contact rate going back to the start of last season, he’s a nice pitching option on this afternoon slate. I do think the Twins would be my preferred side of this one if you’re looking for a stack and take a chance that Irvin’s last start will carry over.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: I like Berrios more than I like this Athletics offense.
MIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: I’ll always have an interest in these big right-handed bats when a lefty is on the mound.
Chicago Cubs (-131) @ Detroit Tigers (+121)
Implied Run Totals:
Cubs – 4.6 IRT
Tigers – 4.0 IRT
Rundown:
Trevor Williams will get the ball for the Cubbies here, he hasn’t been all that great but also hasn’t been terrible outside of his outing against the Reds. He gets a nice matchup against the Tigers here if you’re looking for a cheaper option on that afternoon slate. Jose Urena gets the start for the Tigers, he’s a guy I’ll stack against pretty comfortable, he’s got easily the highest hard contact rate on this afternoon slate and the Cubs offense has the firepower to get it going.
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Javier Baez, Wilson Contreras
GPP Note: I like the Cubs stack on this afternoon slate quite a bit, Urena isn’t good and neither is that Tigers bullpen.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Niko Goodrum, Jaimer Candelario, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: I don’t love Trevor Williams as a pitcher, but man this Tigers offense is ugly.
Los Angeles Angels (-112) @ Boston Red Sox (+103)
Implied Run Totals:
Angels – 4.9 IRT
Red Sox – 4.7 IRT
Rundown:
This game has pretty easily the highest implied run total on the afternoon slate with these two big offenses facing off. Dylan Bundy looks to rebound from his last start where he gave up six earned runs to the Dodgers, but who doesn’t give up big games to the Dodgers? The hard contact rate on him has been down this season and he’s striking guys out at a good rate, the only issue is the matchup against this well-hitting Sox team. I guess you could get to Martin Perez as a cheaper SP option, but I just don’t see the upside against the Angels.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: The Angels would be my preferred stack in this one, I don’t love Martin Perez as a pitcher and there are some nice bats in this lineup.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Marwin Gonzalez
GPP Note: The Red Sox offense is stacked, but I do think Bundy can limit them. That said, we’ve seen some complete blow-up outings from Bundy in the past.
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San Francisco Giants (-120) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+111)
Implied Run Totals:
Giants – 3.9 IRT
Pirates – 3.6 IRT
Rundown:
Both teams come in with implied run totals under 4.0 here which should funnel us right toward the pitching in a pitcher’s park in PNC. Johnny Cueto returned last time out and had a rough time of it in his first game back from the IL. He gave up five earned to the Padres, that said, this Pirates offense is nowhere near that of the Padres. He looked good before hitting the IL as well, I don’t have an issue going back to him here. Tyler Anderson may be the better option however, he has three straight quality starts and at least 33 FanDuel points in four straight, I like him in this matchup with the Giants.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Austin Slater, Evan Longoria
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Anderson here than this Giants offense, but hey, Wilmer against a lefty!
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman
GPP Note: There aren’t many bats I love at all in this game, go with the pitching.
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
New York Yankees (-157) @ Baltimore Orioles (+144)
Implied Run Totals:
Yankees – 4.8 IRT
Orioles – 3.8 IRT
Rundown:
We’ll kick off the main slate starting with the Yankees, I touched on Domingo German at the top of this one but he’s a guy I’ll have some interest in this matchup against the Orioles. As a -157 favorite against a below-average offense, I like his chances at a quality start and a win. Jorge Lopez will get the start for the Orioles, he’s looked pretty decent over his last two starts but I don’t trust that to continue against the firepower in this Yankees offense.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: The Yankees aren’t my favorite stack on the slate, but I think you can make a case for a mini-stack.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: I like German more than anything in this Orioles offense.
Texas Rangers (+157) @ Houston Astros (-172)
Implied Run Totals:
Rangers – 3.7 IRT
Astros – 4.9 IRT
Rundown:
Dane Dunning will get the ball here for the Rangers and was a guy that initially caught my eye until I saw the matchup. Dunning has been really good this season, but the Astros offense is enough to scare me off of him. I’ll probably counteract that by not stacking up the Astros, I do think Dunning is a really solid pitcher. Luis Garcia has been pretty solid as of late, he’s a guy with a healthy strikeout rate and a huge ground ball rate, so those guys that like to get the ball in the air on the Rangers may struggle a bit.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nate Lowe, Joey Gallo, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: I don’t love the Rangers here, but you can make a case for a one-off or two.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: As much as I like this Astros offense, I think Dunning will do enough to be annoying.
Kansas City Royals (+171) @ Chicago White Sox (-188)
Implied Run Totals:
Royals – 3.2 IRT
White Sox – 4.4 IRT
Rundown:
Carlos Rodon gets the start for the White Sox and actually comes in as the highest-priced pitcher on FanDuel. It’s hard to argue with what he’s done this season though, he has at least 42 FanDuel points in each game this season and gets a nice matchup with the Royals in this one. I do slightly prefer Bauer as my SP1 on this slate, but I get the pivot to Rodon. Mike Minor will draw the start for the Royals, and a guy I like stacking against especially with a good lineup like the White Sox can throw at them. A guy I really like in this White Sox offense is Andrew Vaughn, he’s finally starting to hit and is still near min price, he makes a full-stack work pretty nicely.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Rodon clearly made adjustments this season or is getting help from the dead ball, but I’m not going to stack against him.
CHW 5-star plays: Andrew Vaughn, Joes Abreu, Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: I like the Sox quite a bit here, they may make my top stacks.
Atlanta Braves (-115) @ Milwaukee Brewers (+107)
Implied Run Totals:
Braves – 3.9 IRT
Brewers – 3.7 IRT
Rundown:
A battle of the Anderson’s here! Ian Anderson will get the ball for the Braves and would be my preferred pitching option in this game. With Keston Hiura and Christian Yelich both down at AAA, this Brewers offense is very weak. Anderson has a 28% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season as well, he’s a guy I like a good amount here. Brett Anderson, not so much, he’s giving up a 37.1% hard contact rate, and even though he’s not a guy I generally like to stack against, it’s hard to ignore that number against an offense like the Braves.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: I think the implied run total is too low on the Braves here, I like them a good amount as a stack.
MIL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Travis Shaw, Omar Narvaez
GPP Note: I won’t stack this Brewers offense until they show signs of life or get those two big hitters back in there.
Philadelphia Phillies (-145) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+130)
Implied Run Totals:
Phillies – 5.3 IRT
Blue Jays – 4.4 IRT
Rundown:
Aaron Nola gets the start here for the Phillies and a guy I think you can get to as a GPP option at SP. He has a 30+% strikeout rate on the season and this Jays offense has some strikeouts in it. They have some really good raw young talent in this lineup, but generally, that can come with some swings and misses. Anthony Kay gets the start for the Jays, he’s given up at least three earned runs in each outing this season, so not exactly a guy I’ll be targeting here.
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: I like the Phillies stack, but I don’t love them.
TOR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Nola than a whole lot of anything in this Jays offense.
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Cincinnati Reds (-173) @ Colorado Rockies (+158)
Implied Run Totals:
Reds – 6.0 IRT
Rockies – 4.7 IRT
Rundown:
Off to Coors we go! I think we can safely rule out both of these guys as pitching options here, Tyler Mahle has been good this season, but on a big slate, I don’t see a reason to go to him here in Coors Field. The Reds may be the top stack on the slate, they have a massive implied run total and a great matchup with Chacin on the mound. They’ve been a good offense all season long and a team I’ll go right back to here. The Rockies aren’t quite as appealing to me, but they’ve shown signs of life as of late, particularly Charlie Blackmon who appears to have awoken from his early-season slumber.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Tyler Naquin, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: The Reds will make my top stacks list at the end of this article.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: I much prefer the Reds here but so will the public, I don’t hate getting some leverage with the Rockies.
Washington Nationals (-122) Arizona Diamondbacks (+113)
Implied Run Totals:
Nationals – 5.0 IRT
Diamondbacks – 4.6 IRT
Rundown:
Joe Ross will take the mound for the Nationals here, he’s been fine as of late, and in a good matchup against the Dbacks, I can see making a case for him if you want to go really cheap at SP and spend up on your stacks. Seth Frankoff will get the start for the Dbacks, his only other major league experience has been out of the bullpen so I wouldn’t be expecting him to go too far into this one, you can make a case for a Nats stack here.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Josh Harrison
GPP Note: I like the spot for the Nationals but I just don’t love how weak the bottom of the lineup gets.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: David Peralta, Pavin Smith, Carson Kelly
GPP Note: I don’t love a whole lot from the Dbacks, but the matchup is fine if you want some one-offs.
St. Louis Cardinals (+122) @ San Diego Padres (-133)
Implied Run Totals:
Cardinals – 3.3 IRT
Padres – 3.8 IRT
Rundown:
Adam Wainright will take the mound for the Cardinals in this one and has at least 29 DraftKings points in three of his last four starts. He gets a break here as well with the Padres having a watered-down lineup with Tatis, Myers, and Hosmer all out. I think you can make a case for him here in a pitchers park. Chris Paddack gets the ball for the Padres, and as much as it hurts me to say considering my ownership of him in season long, I think that 3.3 implied total for the Cardinals is way too low. Paddack hasn’t shown me much this season that makes me think he’s a great option right now, he’s a 1-1.5 pitch guy that relies too much on his fastball.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: I don’t think you should go too crazy, but I do like some Cardinals stacks in GPP in hopes that Paddack hasn’t fixed his issues from earlier this season.
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Trent Grisham
GPP Note: This Padres lineup is really weak right now, I’ll side with Wainwright here.
Cleveland Indians (-101) @ Seattle Mariners (-107)
Implied Run Totals:
Indians – 4.3 IRT
Mariners – 4.3 IRT
Rundown:
I touched on Triston McKenzie at the start of the article and think he’s a nice cheap SP option considering all the bats we have to spend up on this slate. You generally won’t find his kind of strikeout upside in his price range in a good matchup with the Mariners. I will say, this Mariners lineup sees a big boost with Kelenic now in there hitting leadoff, but I still think he can take advantage. Justus Sheffield isn’t a guy I have all that much interest in but he’s a fine punt GPP guy if you’re going heavy on bats due to the matchup with the Indians.
CLE 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: There aren’t many bats I love in this game, so just one-offs here.
SEA 5-star plays: Jarred Kelenic
4-star plays: Kyle Lewis
GPP Note: Kelenic at min price is an absolute steal, other than him, not much I love from Seattle.
Miami Marlins (+260) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-300)
Implied Run Totals:
Marlins – 2.8 IRT
Dodgers – 4.9 IRT
Rundown:
I touched on Trevor Bauer up top as well, he’s far and away my favorite SP1 on this slate considering the matchup and the strikeout upside he brings. The win and quality start equity are pretty large as well. Jordan Holloway will get the start for the Marlins, he’s coming off a bad start last time out against the Diamondbacks, and let me tell ya, this Dodgers lineup won’t be as forgiving. I like the Dodgers bats a good deal here.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: All the Bauer here for me.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Corey Seager
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Justin Turner
GPP Note: They might go under-owned due to Coors being on this slate, but I do like the Dodgers a good deal here.
Stacks of the Day: Main MLB Slate
- Cincinnati Reds: Bold call here right? The highest implied total on the slate in a good matchup against a bad pitcher in Coors Field. I’m not really sure what else you could really ask for here. They’re going to be expensive, but I think there are some solid enough cheap pitchers that you can get to here to make this stack work. They’ve been a good offense all season long and a team I want to get to tonight.
- Chicago White Sox: I mentioned this in the game breakdown, but the thing I love about the White Sox stack is how cheap you can make it. Guys like Tim Anderson and Jose Abreu are going to cost you some money, but Andrew Vaughn at the bottom of the order has started to heat up and he’s near min price. If you wrap the stack around with and the top of the order, it’s really not all that expensive.
- Atlanta Braves: It pains me to put the Braves stack in here as a Brewers fan, but I think the implied run total on them right now is far too low. I generally don’t stack against Brett Anderson, but he has a big hard contact rate on the season and this Braves team can make you pay. The implied run total will keep ownership to a minimum on them as well, they make for a perfect leverage stack.
MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – Marcell Ozuna (DK – $4.8k; FD – $3.2k)
Right back to the Braves here, Ozuna is a guy that is streaky and when he has that home run swing going they’ll come in bunches. He homered last night and I think he follows it up with another one tonight against left-hander Brett Anderson. Ozuna has crushed lefties this season coming in with a 0.663 SLG, 0.431 wOBA, and a 0.373 ISO Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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