Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/12:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Danny Duffy
- Julio Urias
- Gerrit Cole
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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-130)
Pitchers:
Twins – J.A. Happ
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get a couple of veteran LHPs on the mound in this game. Both guys are capable of surprising but I think I want to side with the offenses here. Both teams have bats that do a TON of damage to LHPs. Nelson Cruz and Tim Anderson will end up being a couple of my highest-owned bats on the slate.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Leury Garcia, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team has an ISO of .132 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies (-140) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Nationals – Jon Lester
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I think I will be going back to the Phillies bats here but with a sprinkling of Nationals bats even though I like what Wheeler is capable of doing. Lester just doesn’t seem like a guy that will have consistent success at this point in his career as he has to rely on his defense and soft contact.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO 0f .137 over the last week.
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies – Game 1
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rockies – Jon Gray
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
SD 5-star plays: Wil Myers (DTD), Manny Machado
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 at home this season.
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies – Game 2
Pitchers:
Padres – Blake Snell
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Wil Myers (DTD)
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against LHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 at home this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Royals – Danny Duffy
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
KC 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: Striking out at nearly a 36% rate against LHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Indians (-111)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Zach Davies
Indians – Sam Hentges
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We should see some offense here as Davies has been really bad this season and the Indians appear to be going with a bullpen-type game. I like the Cubs against LHPs so it will come down to how many innings we hear that Hentges will be attempting to go.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against LHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros (-115)
Pitchers:
Angels – Andrew Heaney
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Heaney is a guy with spectacular upside to go along with a terrible floor. He’s going to pick up some K’s but he tends to run into a wall and start giving up hard contact. Urquidy is a guy that I think is better than his numbers have shown but the Angels pose some problems for him, especially if Ohtani is in the lineup.
LAA 5-star plays: Jared Walsh
4-star plays: Mike Trout, David Fletcher
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .228 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-145)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – John Gant
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I don’t think very highly of Gant as an SP but he gets a decent spot, against a struggling offense. Woodruff is spectacular but he faces the better of the two offenses in this game. Woodruff is always worth the usage in GPPs and will be a borderline cash game play with the total sitting so low.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Travis Shaw, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Athletics – James Kaprielian
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
Waiting for the Vegas information.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Stephen Piscotty, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against LHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs this season.
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Cincinnati Reds (-157) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Reds – Sonny Gray
Pirates – Trevor Cahill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Reds seem to be in a great spot against Cahill while Gray should be pretty popular for the early slate. Cahill reminds me of the Reds pitcher that just threw a no-hitter, Wade Miley. I know they throw from the opposite side but they just strike me as the same kind of pitcher.
CIN 5-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Tucker Barnhart
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-250)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Justin Dunn
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. As I am writing this on Tuesday night, the Dodgers just put up 3 in the bottom of the 8th on a 3-Run Lux HR. Prior to that HR, Kikuchi dominated the Dodgers lineup and that has me shocked. They have to wake up at some point and if Dunn has control issues, it could be a long night for him.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Striking out at a 30% rate against LHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough (unknown at the moment, but this is my guess)
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team has 46 Ks in 121 PAs against Cole.
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Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets (-177)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Matt Harvey
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Walker has been really good this season and I think he’s being overlooked. The Mets need him more than ever right now with deGrom landing on the IL. Harvey has overachieved to this point and I am sure he has all sorts of emotions returning to the Big Apple.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 against RHPs this season.
Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-130)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Diamondbacks – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I love this pitching match-up, even with the numbers that ARI has put up against LHPs this season. Rogers is a guy that I love to use thanks to his K ability and Gallen is a guy that the Marlins would LOVE to have in their rotation yet. I could understand some one-off bats from this game but I am mainly fading, aside from the SPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carson Kelly, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .231 against LHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We know that the Braves struggle against LHPs and Ray was really solid against them on Tuesday night, aside from Acuna going deep. Fried should be returning here but it’s a tough spot for him against the Blue Jays. My initial look is going to put me on TOR again as I love some of them against LHPs, traditionally.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees
- Toronto Blue Jays
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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