Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/11:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Shane Bieber
- Brady Singer
- Pablo Lopez
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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-121)
Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. When we look at the SPs numbers for the season, I could argue that they look to be flipped between the two. Maeda coming off of a great season has looked rough to begin the season but has started to slightly turn it around. Cease has looked solid and might be in line for a solid outing even though some of the Twins appear to be heating up.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Lamb, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team has an ISO of .132 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals (-115)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Chase Anderson
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Both of these SPs actually give up more power to RHBs than LHBs right now but each team has a legit, top-tier, LHB in the middle of their lineup. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the total of this game move to 9.5 by the time the first pitch is thrown. Expect some offense to be displayed here.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Josh Harrison
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Yan Gomes
GPP Note: Team ISO 0f .137 over the last week.
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Padres – Dinelson Lamet
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I assume we are waiting on the SP verifications from both teams as Monday’s game was rained out and moved to a doubleheader on Wednesday.
SD 5-star plays: Wil Myers, Manny Machado
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story
GPP Note: The above duo is a combined 7 for 22 with an HR and 2 SBs against Lamet.
Kansas City Royals (-125) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I love this pitching match-up, as long as Boyd is fully healthy in his return from a knee issue. Singer has really taken leaps forward and I am excited to see his future. Boyd gets a better match-up than you might think as KC isn’t as dangerous against LHPs as they are against RHPs, even though they generally don’t strike out much against either.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Striking out at under a 21% rate against LHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Harold Castor, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: Striking out at a 28% rate against RHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Indians (-160)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Adbert Alzolay
Indians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Bieber is in a huge spot for his K upside but the Cubs are swinging it a little better and he’s had an issue keeping the ball in the yard so far this season. Alzolay has started to impress me more and more as he has thrown with command this season. Probably a pretty strong game to use both SPs and hope to pick up 20+ strikeouts.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros (-140)
Pitchers:
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Astros – Lance McCullers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We have to learn what the sites are going to do with this game and Ohtani. We’ve been able to use him as a pitcher in most of his starts but last game we couldn’t but we could have used him as a hitter even though he didn’t hit. At first glance, I would be considering mini-stacks from this game but not much outside of that. Maybe consider an Astros stack because of how many walks that Ohtani allows.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout, David Fletcher
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .228 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-121)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Kwang-Hyun Kim
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I think this game stays pretty low scoring throughout but there are a couple of players who are in strong spots. With that said, Peralta is an interesting GPP option for me while Kim probably has a solid game but I am not sure what kind of upside he might offer us.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Goldy is 4 for 5 with 2 HRs against Peralta.
MIL 5-star plays: Tyrone Taylor
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (-135)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Really torn here as I like both of these SPs but these offenses are really good. With that said, the Red Sox REALLY let us down on Monday night in a great spot. I am going to continue to stack the Red Sox, especially when they are playing at home. The A’s are an intriguing team but Eovaldi has performed really well against them.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Reds – Jeff Hoffman
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Reds bats have LOVED taking on the Pirates pitchers so far this season. They have a team ISO of .317 (10 HRs in 4 games) against them so far this season. Now those types of numbers aren’t sustainable, but who is to say that they will regress immediately?
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-250)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Walker Buehler lines up to be one of the top SPs on the day as he should be in a great spot against the Mariners. He hasn’t been overly sharp but his K numbers are coming around and it’s only a matter of time before he stops leaving things right down the middle.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Striking out at a 26% rate against RHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Chris Taylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees (-130) @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rays – Luis Patino/Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Rays have had success against Montgomery but they are also striking out a TON against LHPs this season. That makes this a very interesting spot, so I will be using both sides of that match-up in my GPP builds. Yarbrough has been FAR better when used as the follower in an opener situation.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Mike Brosseau
4-star plays: Manuel Margot, Mike Zunino
GPP Note: Team has 5 HRs in 51 ABs against Montgomery.
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Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets (-145)
Pitchers:
Orioles – John Means
Mets – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Means gets to follow up his no-hitter with a Mets team that has struggled to get the offense going this season. With such a low total, I don’t play to use many bats from this game other than going hunting for that one-off HR that is nearly inevitable to happen.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kevin Pillar, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 against LHPs this season.
Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-111)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Diamondbacks – Madison Bumgarner
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Bumgarner has turned things around a bit this season and making himself look like a viable option for us on slates where the pitching is just solid and not elite. My issue is that I much prefer Pablo Lopez as a pitcher and he has the better individual match-up.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Miguel Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pavin Smith, Josh Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs this season.
Texas Rangers @ San Francisco Giants (-145)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We saw a strong pitcher’s duel last night and while we probably don’t see the same kind of duel, we get decent pitchers because of the ballpark that this game is happening in. The big thing to point out is that this is a day game, so the ball should fly a bit better in SF.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Willie Calhoun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jayes @ Atlanta Braves
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Braves – Max Fried or Bryse Wilson
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- San Diego Padres
- New York Yankees
- Toronto Blue Jays
MLB Dinger of the Day – Wil Myers, San Diego Padres
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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