Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 5/10:
Sep 26, 2020; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Colorado Rockies right fielder Charlie Blackmon (19) hits a sacrifice fly RBI against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the fifth inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
My Take on an Optimal MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB DFS slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Alex Wood – Wood comes in as the highest-priced pitcher on DraftKings, but third highest on FanDuel in a great matchup against the Texas Rangers. He brings the Giants into this one as a -140 favorite while the Rangers have just a 3.2 implied run total. The park factor is in his favor playing in San Fran and has nearly a 25% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season. There won’t be a whole lot of pitching options on today’s slate, but he makes a lot of sense here.
- Kyle Gibson – Alex Wood’s mound opponent in this one! I like the pitchers in this game a good deal, both have been really effective this year and the park factor is big as well. Gibson comes in with a 2.40 ERA on the season and has been an innings eater this season. It helps explain why he’s more expensive on FanDuel because he has gotten the quality start bonus in six of his last seven starts and gets a good matchup with the Giants here.
- Mitch Keller – There really isn’t much for cheap options, so we may be stretching it a bit here with Keller. That being said, we do have Coors on this slate, so you may need a cheap option to make those bats work. He has a 20% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season and just a 31.7% hard contact rate. I don’t love the matchup with the Reds, as they’ve been a pretty good offense this season but I’m hoping the ballpark will help us in this one a little.
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Cincinnati Reds (-134) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+123)
Implied Run Totals:
Reds – 4.1 IRT
Pirates – 3.5 IRT
Rundown:
I just touched on Mitch Keller in the pitcher’s section and I will have some interest in him here, but you won’t feel great about it. Tyler Mahle gets the start on the other side of this one and looks like he can be a good pivot off of Wood and Gibson on this slate. Mahle started the season really well but has tapered off a little bit. The Pirates don’t have a great offense so it looks like a great bounce-back spot for a guy with a 30+% strikeout rate. He and Lamet are the only guys to sport that high of a strikeout rate, and one of those guys is in Coors field tonight, so the decision is pretty easy.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Nick Senzel, Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: If you find yourself getting too much Mitch Keller due to Coors, I have no issue with a hedge stack here. This Reds offense can hit.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: I’ll have much more interest in Mahle in this one than this Pirates offense.
Boston Red Sox (-136) @ Baltimore Orioles (+126)
Implied Run Totals:
Red Sox – 4.9 IRT
Orioles – 4.2 IRT
Rundown:
Martin Perez was right there with Mitch Keller as my cheap option on the slate but gave the slight edge to Keller. That being said, I do think you’re able to get to Perez here if you need the savings, I’m just not sure what the ceiling is on him. The matchup is nice and he limits hard contact well, but a sub 20% strikeout rate is never something I’m looking to actively roster. Jorge Lopez get the start for the O’s here and a guy I’ll probably look to stack against in this spot. The Red Sox have been one of the better offenses in the league this season and Lopez, well… hasn’t been all that great with an ERA over six.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: I would assume the Red Sox make my top stacks here, but we’ll keep it in mind as we go. This is a nice spot for them on a short slate.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Both offenses are in play here, but I may get a little exposure to Perez as a pivot off Keller as an SP2 or cheap SP on FanDuel.
Los Angeles Angels (-) @ Houston Astros (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Angels – N/A IRT
Astros – N/A IRT
Rundown:
We don’t have a confirmed starting pitcher from the Angels yet, but DraftKings seems to think it will be Jose Suarez which would make sense as Alex Cobb got moved to the injury list. He hasn’t thrown a ton of big league innings but when he has, it hasn’t been pretty. He’s given up at least a 47% hard contact rate in his two short stints in the majors since 2019… I’m going to stack this Astros lineup as much as I can here. He might have talent and someone the Angels like for the future, but right now I’ll have a lot of Astros stacks. Luis Garcia will get the start for Houston, and he’s been pretty solid this season with a nice strikeout rate as well. I have no issue with him here if you can’t quite get up to that tier one of pitchers on this slate.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: I like the Angels more as a mini-stack if you’re not going to get any Garcia in this one.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Altvue
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: I like the Astros a lot here and hope they go under-owned with Coors on the slate.
San Diego Padres (-176) @ Colorado Rockies (+150)
Implied Run Totals:
Padres – 5.8 IRT
Rockies – 4.4 IRT
Rundown:
Dinelson Lamet will get the start for the Padres here, but not a guy I have all that much interest in. He’s got a big strikeout rate but not only is he in Coors, but we also haven’t seen him go more than two innings in any game this season. Health is a real concern on him and I just don’t feel like taking that risk on top of the park factor he’ll be dealing with in this one. Antonio Senzatela will get the ball for the Rockies and won’t be an option either. This Padres team will be the stack the public will flock to, but for good reason, they’ve got a lot of firepower and are in the best ballpark for hitting in the big leagues.
SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Eric Hosmer, Trent Grisham
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Wil Myers
GPP Note: The Padres are probably the top stack on the board tonight if you can afford them.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Ryan McMahon, CJ Cron
GPP Note: I like the Rockies side of this one as well, I don’t trust Lamet and we’ve seen some of their bats start to heat up a bit lately… looking at you Mr. Blackmon.
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Miami Marlins (-) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Marlins – N/A IRT
Diamondbacks – N/A IRT
Rundown:
We don’t have a confirmed starter for the Marlins just yet, but it looks like it may just be a bullpen game that we can sort of just disregard the pitchers in this one unless you really want to take a shot on Jordan Holloway as a min price pitcher, but would be a DraftKings only play for me. You can make a case for Luke Weaver on the other side of this one however, he’s right in that Mahle, Gibson, and Wood tier but he hasn’t been all that great this season and is coming off a start against these Marlins where he gave up six earned runs. So… roster at your own risk in this one.
MIA 5-star plays: Jesus Aguilar
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Adam Duvall, Brian Anderson
GPP Note: I don’t hate the idea of a Marlins contrarian stack here with how bad Weaver has been as of late.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: David Peralta, Pavin Smith, Carson Kelly, Christian Walker
GPP Note: I don’t love a whole lot from this Dbacks offense, but I think you can make a case for a mini-stack.
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Texas Rangers (+133) @ San Francisco Giants (-144)
Implied Run Totals:
Rangers – 3.2 IRT
Giants – 3.9 IRT
Rundown:
This game is going to be where I’m going to get a majority of my pitching exposure, I wrote up both Kyle Gibson and Alex Wood at the start of this article and they’ll be my two highest-owned guys on the late. I have a slight lean toward Alex Wood if you have the money on DraftKings, he’s cheaper on FanDuel, so you won’t need to worry all that much about that. Overall, really just these pitchers for me, if you want to get wacky and get some leverage, go with Mahle or someone in this tier and stack against these guys as a way to get different on this short slate.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nate Lowe, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: I have more interest in Alex Wood than anything from the Rangers here.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Buster Posey, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Same deal on this side, more interest in Gibson than any of these bats.
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Stacks of the Day: Main MLB Slate
- San Diego Padres: Bold call here right? The highest implied total on the slate in a good matchup against a bad pitcher in Coors Field. I’m not really sure what else you could really ask for here. They have some cheaper bats at the bottom of the order with Profar, Myers, and Nola to make things work with the top-of-the-lineup as well, I just don’t see a way of getting away from the Padres on a six-game slate.
- Houston Astros: I mentioned this in the game breakdown, but Jose Suarez doesn’t have a whole lot of Major League pitching experience, and the experience he does have, has not been good. He’s given up at least a 47% hard contact rate in his two short stints in the big leagues and this Houston offense isn’t exactly one you want to try to bounce back against, they’re an elite pivot off that Padres stack.
- Boston Red Sox: Any time Boston goes to Baltimore I’ll have interest, they seemingly always hit well in this spot. Mookie Betts was a big part of that before he was traded, but still a team I like to get to against a bit of a gas can in Jorge Lopez. The Orioles bullpen isn’t going to back him up all that much behind him as well. I like the Sox a good deal here and are cheaper than those first two stacks as well.
MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – Alex Bregman (DK – $5.0k; FD – $3.8k)
The Astros are my second favorite stack on the slate and Bregman is a big reason why. He gets a matchup against an inexperienced lefty and has hit left-handed pitching really well this season. He has a 0.620 SLG, 0.450 wOBA, and a 0.270 ISO against lefties on the season, gimme all the Bregman here! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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