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(FREE!) DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Pitching Advice, and Stack Strategy for FanDuel and DraftKings – May 7th, 2021

Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/7:

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the  MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.

  • Trevor Rogers
  • Sean Manaea
  • Jack Flaherty

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Minnesota Twins (-140) @ Detroit Tigers

Pitchers:

Twins – Matt Shoemaker

Tigers – Tarik Skubal

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 9. I will be all over the Twins against Skubal here. Minnesota has some bats that can do damage against LHPs and Skubal hasn’t been very sharp this season. On the other side of things, I wish I could say Shoemaker was going to be a strong play but he’s just not reliable at this point.

MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton (DTD), Nelson Cruz

4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Mitch Garver

GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.

DET 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario

GPP Note: Team has an ISO of .154 at home this season.


Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (-157)

Pitchers:

Phillies – Zach Eflin

Braves – Charlie Morton

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8.5. A lot of this game for Philly will depend on Harper’s status. If he’s out, I think Morton is a very solid play but he would drop down a level or so if Harper returns. The Braves bats are definitely in play against Eflin as they have seen him multiple times this season. When is Freddie Freeman going to wake up?

PHI 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto

GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs this season.

ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.

4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Marcel Ozuna

GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last week.


Colorado Rockies @ St Louis Cardinals (-203)

Pitchers:

Rockies – Austin Gomber

Cardinals – Jack Flaherty

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of just 7. Flaherty is in an excellent spot as the Rockies offense has struggled away from Coors. The low total in this game puts Gomber in play but I just can’t trust him and I think the top part of the Cardinals lineup is in a great spot for GPP purposes.

COL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story

GPP Note: Striking out at a 27% rate on the road this season.

STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado

4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Dylan Carlson

GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against LHPs so far this season.


Chicago White Sox (-153) @ Kansas City Royals

Pitchers:

White Sox – Carlos Rodon

Royals – Brad Keller

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am really lost on how to attack this game at first glance. We get a White Sox offense that isn’t making a ton of contact going against a pitcher, Keller, who has struggled ridiculously this season. On the other side of this game, we get Rodon who has been really strong this season, going against a KC lineup that doesn’t strike out against LHPs.

CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada

4-star plays: Nick Madrigal

GPP Note: Striking out at a 31% rate over the last week.

KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield

4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Hunter Dozier

GPP Note: Striking out at just an 18% rate against LHPs this season.


Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians (-140)

Pitchers:

Reds – Wade Miley

Indians – Zach Plesac

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Reds have hit RHPs extremely well this season but that’s buoyed by the way they have swung it at home. They have been FAR weaker on the road so far in 2021 and the loss of Votto is going to be pretty big for them. Miley is an SP that I want to pick on and the Indians are making plenty of contact against LHPs on the season.

CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker

4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Tyler Naquin

GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against RHPs this season.

CLE 5-star plays: Franmil Reyes

4-star plays: Harold Ramirez

GPP Note: Striking out at just a 20% rate against LHPs this season.

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Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) @ Los Angeles Angels

Pitchers:

Dodgers – Julio Urias

Angels – Griffin Canning

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8.5. On paper, the Dodgers should be in a great spot as Canning has really struggled while Urias has been excellent in the rotation. The problem we have here is that both offenses are on the slide right now so it’s just a matter of who we think wakes up. My money is on the Dodgers at this point.

LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner

4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Max Muncy

GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout

4-star plays: Juan Lagares, Shohei Ohtani

GPP Note: Team is striking out at just a 21% rate against LHPs.


Milwaukee Brewers @ Miami Marlins (-145)

Pitchers:

Brewers – Brent Suter

Marlins – Trevor Rogers

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Suter has to step into the rotation for the Brewers but I am not sure how stretched out he actually is. Rogers is in a GREAT spot, as long as he’s able to avoid the walks. He gets a great strikeout match-up plus the Brewers had to put Yelich back on the IL and Cain hasn’t been able to play consistently since his IL return.

MIL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Tyrone Taylor

GPP Note: Striking out at a 30% rate against LHPs this season.

MIA 5-star plays: Brian Anderson

4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Jon Berti

GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against LHPs this season.


Boston Red Sox (-160) @ Baltimore Orioles

Pitchers:

Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez

Orioles – Matt Harvey

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 9. First glance puts me on Eduardo Rodriguez but the total of the game gives me some pause here. He’s an arm that flashes big-time upside but he seems to have lapses when he’s on the mound. Harvey should get knocked around at some point, especially as the Red Sox are seeing him for the third time this season.

BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez

4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo

GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.

BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini

4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Pedro Severino

GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs this season.

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

Pitchers:

Pirates – Trevor Cahill

Cubs – Zach Davies

Rundown:

Waiting on the Vegas information.

PIT 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Colin Moran, Bryan Reynolds

GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 against RHPs this season.

CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant

4-star plays: Jason Heyward, Ian Happ

GPP Note: Team ISO of .206 at home this season.


Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (EVEN)

Pitchers:

Mariners – Chris Flexen

Rangers – Mike Foltynewicz

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 9. I am interested in this game as I think we see some offense from a couple of teams that aren’t known for their offenses. Flexen has impressed in his return from the KBO while Foltynewicz just seems to give up HRs when he’s on the mound. The Rangers bats did enough to give the Twins fits.

SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Seager

4-star plays: Mitch Haniger

GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs this season.

TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo

4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Nate Lowe

GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.


Washington Nationals @ New York Yankees (-190)

Pitchers:

Nationals – Patrick Corbin

Yankees – Jameson Taillon

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We might have the best game to stack here but we get two SPs that are capable of dominant performances as well. The total is really high so I will side with Vegas there. Stanton is absolutely locked in at the plate and should be one of the first choices for our cash game builds.

WSH 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber

GPP Note: Striking out at just a 23% rate over the last week.

NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton

4-star plays: Gleybert Torres, DJ LeMahieu

GPP Note: Team has an ISO of .149 over the last week.

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets (-130)

Pitchers:

Diamondbacks – Zac Gallen

Mets – David Peterson

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Gallen is an SP that I will ALWAYS play as I think he’s on the cusp of becoming a top-tier ace in the majors. The Mets bats have struggled against RHPs this season, which shocks me given the way the lineup is constructed. I was shocked when I saw the D’Backs ISO against LHPs this season.

ARI 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Carson Kelly, Eduardo Escobar

GPP Note: Team ISO of .255 against LHPs this season.

NYM 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Dominic Smith

GPP Note: Team ISO of just .127 against RHPs this season.


Tampa Bay Rays @ Oakland Athletics (-135)

Pitchers:

Rays – Rich Hill

Athletics – Sean Manaea

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8. Oakland gets to face, what feels like, their 5th straight LHP. They have a great team ISO against them on the season so Rich Hill is in some trouble. Tampa’s offense just exploded for 7 runs late against the Angels, as I am writing this. I don’t love them against LHPs as Heaney just struck out double-digits against them.

TB 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot

GPP Note: Striking out at a 32% rate against LHPs this season.

OAK 5-star plays: Ramon Laureano

4-star plays: Sean Murphy, Mark Canha

GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 against LHPs this season.


San Diego Padres (-140) @ San Francisco Giants

Pitchers:

Padres – Blake Snell

Giants – Anthony DeSclafani

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 7. We get an under-the-radar SP match-up as Snell is a big name while DeSclafani gets overlooked. The Padres bats are ice cold right now so that puts DeSclafani in an excellent spot for GPPs. From a pure match-up standpoint, I think the Giants are the better offense to stack in this game (that won’t be the case once this SD lineup gets rolling).

SD 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Trent Grisham

GPP Note: Team ISO of just .092 over the last week.

SF 5-star plays: Evan Longoria

4-star plays: Darin Ruf, Wilmer Flores

GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against LHPs this season.


Toronto Blue Jayes @ Houston Astros (-135)

Pitchers:

Blue Jays – Ross Stripling

Astros – Jose Urquidy

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 9. The big thing for me in this game is that both pitchers have shown reverse splits, with Stripling being somewhat extreme the season plus. I could see this game creep to a 9.5 total and match the NYY-WSH game in that regard. Toronto just put up double-digit runs against OAK as they faced a reverse splits RHP in Mike Fiers.

TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr

4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk

GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.

HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez

4-star plays: Aledmys Diaz, Michael Brantley

GPP Note: Team ISO .170 against RHPs this season.


Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

  1. Oakland Athletics
  2. New York Yankees
  3. Minnesota Twins

MLB Dinger of the Day – Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins

 

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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