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NBA DFS Slate Breakdown Strategy, Picks, and Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Apr. 18th, 2021

Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 4/18:

Feb 12, 2020; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs guard Anthony Edwards (5) looks to dunk the ball against the South Carolina Gamecocks during the second half at Stegeman Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

I want to give a quick shoutout to VIP Member “TheSoprano12” on their $100,000 win earlier this season!! Better go buy a Boban jersey after that one!

Early Slate:

Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks

Vegas Total: 234.0

Vegas Spread: Atl -2.5

We’ll kick the day off with a short little three-game early slate. Starting with the Pacers, it sounds like Myles Turner will continue to be questionable here, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him and the rest of this team. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he is out yet again. Domantas Sabonis scored 44 fantasy points in this game earlier this season. I have no issue going right back to him here especially if Turner ends up sitting. Caris LeVert and Malcolm Brogdon continue to produce well, I would consider Brogdon your cash game guy while LeVert is more of a tournament-style player. Lastly, TJ McConnell has been fine, but I like his price better on DraftKings, that being said, he’s a more valuable FanDuel player due to all the steals and blocks he racks up. From the Hawks, Clint Capela has been really solid over his last four games, John Collins comes into this one as questionable, I would want Collins to be out to really like Capela again here. Trae Young is coming off a really frustrating game where he went for 24.9 FanDuel points against the Bucks, the Pacers are playing much faster than people realize as of late, hence the 234 implied total, so I don’t hate going back to him here. Bogdan Bogdanovic continues to play well, and having SF eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel is a big win. He’s another guy I would want Collins to be out so he can benefit, however. The last guy I would have interest in here is Kevin Huerter, he scored 36 fantasy points in this spot earlier this season and will benefit from the pace bump here.

*** The below assumes Myles Turner and John Collins are out again ***

5-star play: Domantas Sabonis

4-star play: Trae Young, Clint Capela, Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, Bogdan Bogdanovic

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: TJ McConnell, Kevin Huerter

New Orleans Pelicans @ New York Knicks

Vegas Total: 217.5

Vegas Spread: Nyk -1.0

Starting with the Pelicans, Zion Williamson scored 50.1 FanDuel points in this one just a few games ago. I don’t love the matchup due to how slow the Knicks play, but he can clearly excel in it. That being said, the price on both sites is getting up there considering Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball are back in the lineup to soak up some usage. Speaking of Ingram, he scored 58.75 DraftKings points last game against the Wizards, so he’s obviously in good form. The price is up on him as well, but he’s one of the better SF options on the FanDuel side of things. Lonzo Ball returned last time out to play 20 minutes, I would expect that number to come up a bit but I’ll wait for that to happen before going back to him. Then you can round this team out with Eric Bledsoe as a GPP option. From the Knicks, Julius Randle is in great form and a guy I would actually prefer to take the savings on than go with Zion on the other side. He has at least 45 FanDuel points in two straight and coming off a massive 69 point game last time out. RJ Barrett didn’t fare so well in this one a few games ago but bounced back by playing 46 minutes last time out, no issue with him, especially on FanDuel. The rest of this team is kind of meh for me, you can make a case for Derrick Rose and Nerlens Noel, Noel would be a DraftKings only play for me due to being C eligible only on FanDuel and I’m not sure what Rose’s upside looks like so they’re secondary guys.

5-star play: Julius Randle

4-star play: Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Lonzo Ball, Eric Bledsoe, Derrick Rose, Nerlens Noel

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Brooklyn Nets @ Miami Heat

Vegas Total: 222.5

Vegas Spread: Bkn -3.5

Starting with the Nets, this is a tough matchup as a whole for this team due to the defense that the Heat will play and how much slower of a pace they play at, but these Nets guys are superstars so they shouldn’t have any issues overcoming that. Kevin Durant is averaging 49.1 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Heat this season and got those minutes into the 30’s last game which was key to see. It sucks that he’s PF eligible on FanDuel, he would have been one of the better SF options, but it’s not the case. Kyrie Irving had a tough go of it last time out, but he’s really the only other guy I have a whole lot of interest in from this team. You can make a case for a guy like Joe Harris or Bruce Brown, but that’s about as far as I would go from the Nets in this one. From the Heat, Jimmy Butler comes into this one as questionable but is coming off a massive game last time out against the Wolves. If he ends up playing I will have interest in him on both sites on the early slate. We haven’t seen him in this matchup yet this season, but considering how bad this Nets defense can be, I’ll go right back to him here at a pretty ugly SF position. Bam Adebayo has looked great in this matchup this season averaging over 55 fantasy points in both games, that being said, Butler wasn’t in either of those games. He’s an elite C option here at this price tag due to the matchup. Tyler Herro is in pretty bad form so I think we can go without him, maybe a GPP flyer if you’re looking to get more exposure here. I’d rather save the money and get to Goran Dragic but that can all change should Butler end up getting ruled out. Then as always, Duncan Robinson rounds this team out as a GPP option in hopes he can get hot from three-point range.

5-star play: Kevin Durant, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo

4-star play: Kyrie Irving, Joe Harris

Deeper Value: Nic Claxton, DeAndre Jordan

GPP Sleeper: Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Joe Harris, Bruce Brown

Main Slate:

Portland Trailblazers @ Charlotte Hornets

Vegas Total: 217.5

Vegas Spread: Por -4.0

Starting with the Blazers, Damian Lillard will be out again in this one so let’s run some data with him off the court this season:

  • CJ McCollum – 31.6% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
  • Carmelo Anthony – 26.4% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
  • Norman Powell – 24.8% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
  • Robert Covington – 11.2% usage rate; 0.87 fpm

The sample size on Jusuf Nurkic wasn’t big enough to put on here due to how many games he’s missed this season. He’s got his minutes back up into the 22-26 range as of late and has been a nice point-per-minute guy in his career. I wouldn’t go to him on FanDuel due to the opportunity cost of the position, but I think you can make a case on DraftKings due to the price tag. McCollum is the clear-cut guy you want here, it’s an awesome matchup and gets a nice usage bump. From the Hornets, both Devonte’ Graham and PJ Washington come into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on that Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding them. Terry Rozier has back-to-back 50 point outings on DraftKings, but I do like his FanDuel price tag better. He’s a great play regardless due to the matchup. I’ll continue to go back to Jalen McDaniels here, the price has come up on him but it’s well warranted. He’s playing big minutes and actually looks like he knows what he’s doing out there. Other than those two, we’ll need news surrounding Graham and Washington, but I wouldn’t have a whole lot of interest in those ancillary guys that would get extra run in their place.

5-star play: CJ McCollum

4-star play: Norman Powell, Terry Rozier, Jalen McDaniels

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Carmelo Anthony, Robert Covington, Jusuf Nurkic (DraftKings)

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Toronto Raptors

Vegas Total: 219.0

Vegas Spread: Tor -10.5

Starting with the Thunder, Lu Dort has looked great over his past few games. He has at least 45.2 FanDuel points in two straight games and gives you a SF option that can look pretty ugly on this slate. The price tag is up on him, but for good reason. Moses Brown has been all over the place lately, he’s more of a GPP guy, but the Raptors have struggled with big men this season so I get it if you want to chase his ceiling. Darius Bazley is in a similar boat, his floor is incredibly low but we’ve seen flashes of him producing nicely this season. Lastly, Theo Maledon would really be the only other piece I would have any interest in here, he should continue to play nice minutes while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander works his way back. From the Raptors, it sounds like Fred VanVleet is closer to doubtful than questionable but we’ll keep an eye on his status throughout the day. Other than him and Gary Trent Jr. who comes in as questionable as well, this team is finally starting to get back to full strength. Pascal Siakam is a solid option on both sites as he gets a nice matchup with this young frontcourt that the Thunder will throw at him. Kyle Lowry sounds like he’ll play here after being rested the past three games… not really sure what they’re doing with him here. If he plays I wouldn’t expect him to be limited at all and would be a nice option if VanVleet does end up sitting. Chris Boucher and OG Anunoby are fine GPP options, we have seen the price increase on them as of late as well due to how shorthanded this team has been, however. Lastly, Khem Birch is a guy they’re going to try and get a long look at to see if he’s worth bringing back next season. He’s in play on both sites due to being PF eligible on FanDuel, he makes for a nice value option.

5-star play: Lu Dort (hesitantly)

4-star play: Moses Brown, Darius Bazley, Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, Khem Birch

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Theo Maledon, Darius Bazley, Moses Brown, Chris Boucher, OG Anunoby

Houston Rockets @ Orlando Magic

Vegas Total: 220.0

Vegas Spread: Orl -1.0

Starting with the Rockets, it looks like John Wall will miss this one, so let’s run some data with him off the court this season:

  • Kevin Porter Jr – 27.9% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
  • Christian Wood – 27.9% usage rate; 1.19 fpm
  • Kelly Olynyk – 22.6% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
  • Jae’sean Tate – 20.2% usage rate; 0.98 fpm

The best thing about Wall being out here is we can actually get to some of these guys comfortably due to the matchup with Orlando. My favorite piece would be Kevin Porter Jr. he should do all the ball-handling in the backcourt. Kelly Olynyk has looked great in a Rockets uniform as well but is center only on both sites which can hinder roster construction, a solid play regardless. Christian Wood has been better as of late, but we’re still seeing some volatility from him. I like him on both sites however due to the matchup, he should do whatever he wants in this one. From the Magic, Wendell Carter Jr. has at least 30 minutes in three straight games and has at least 30 FanDuel points in four straight. It’s a great matchup for him as well, I have no issue going right back to him here. I’m just full on the Terrence Ross fade train right now, he’s been brutal. Cole Anthony got his minutes up near 30 last game and looked good doing so, no issue with getting to him here either. Lastly, Chuma Okeke has been solid as of late and we know the minutes will be there with Otto Porter Jr. out, this game is going to be sneaky good for DFS, and I’m hoping it gets overlooked.

5-star play: Kevin Porter Jr., Christian Wood

4-star play: Kelly Olynyk, Wendell Carter Jr

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Jae’sean Tate, Cole Anthony, Chuma Okeke

Sacramento Kings @ Dallas Mavericks

Vegas Total: 230.5

Vegas Spread: Dal -8.5

Starting with the Kings, De’Aaron Fox continues to play huge minutes and produces well while he’s out there. This is a nice matchup with the Mavs as well, I have no issue going to him as your spend-up option on either site. The same can be said for Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes, they’ll both play massive amounts of minutes. Barnes is probably safer for cash games, but you’ll get a nice ceiling with Buddy Hield. Tyrese Haliburton has been frustrating as of late, I like his price tag a lot more on FanDuel however, so he’s in play over there. Lastly, Hassan Whiteside should continue to see solid run with Richaun Holmes out. He has at least 23 minutes in back-to-back games, his price has come up but well warranted, he’s a solid GPP option at center. From the Mavs, Luka Doncic finally paid off his salary last time out against the Knicks. He’s been overpriced for about two weeks now in relation to his production. I do like this matchup a lot though so it’s tough not to get some exposure to him here. Then other than Luka from the Mavs, it’s really just Kristaps Porzingis who should do whatever he wants in this one, he’s got a really nice ceiling here. The floor can be dangerous which is why I’ll have some hesitation in cash, but he’s more than in play for GPPs.

5-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Luka Doncic

4-star play: Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, Tyrese Haliburton (FanDuel), Kristaps Porzingis

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Hassan Whiteside, Tim Hardaway, Josh Richardson

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers

Vegas Total: 231.5

Vegas Spread: Lac -10.0

Starting with the Timberwolves, Karl-Anthony Towns struggled in this matchup earlier this season, but he’s in much better form as of late. He makes for a great spend-up option on both sites. Anthony Edwards will have his hands full with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard’s defense in this one, so more of a GPP guy for me. The same can be said for D’Angelo Russell but I just have a hard time trusting him, he’s been all over the place this season. Other than Towns and Edwards I don’t have much interest in a whole lot here, you can make a case for Jaden McDaniels and Ricky Rubio but they’re more GPP guys than anything as well. From the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard hasn’t played in almost ten days and comes into this one as questionable as well. My guess would be he ends up sitting here due to the matchup, but just keep an eye on his status throughout the day. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw Paul George sit either, but that’s just reckless speculation on my part. He’s a solid play if Kawhi is out and has at least 50 DraftKings points in five straight games. Then the ancillary pieces like Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, and Luke Kennard are all fine options as well as they’ll see a production increase with Kawhi out, but they’re all priced for it as well since he’s been out for so long. Lastly, I love me some Ivica Zubac here, the Wolves are one of the worst teams in the league against opposing centers.

5-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns, Paul George

4-star play: Reggie Jackson, Ivica Zubac, Marcus Morris

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Anthony Edwards, Ricky Rubio, Luke Kennard

NBA Lock of the Day: Kevin Porter Jr. (DK – $6.6k; FD – $6.5k)

I touched on this a bit when I broke down this game as a whole, but I have a lot of interest in this game. It’s two bad defensive teams with some offensive playmakers on each side like Porter Jr. With John Wall out, Porter Jr. will need to run this offense and has a 28% usage rate to go along with 1.11 fantasy points per minute on the season. The Domination Station currently has him projected to be one of the better point-per-dollar plays on both sites and is a guy I’ll get plenty of exposure to in this one. At this moment I would imagine they make my Core on our Cheat Sheets/Coaches Notes for tonight, come check out the other core plays as well! These notes include Core plays, player ranks, and tiers notes, so come check them out! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 5x tonight I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

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