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NBA DFS Slate Breakdown Strategy, Picks, and Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Apr. 17th, 2021

Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 4/17:

Mar 5, 2019; Chestnut Hill, MA, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Coby White (2) drives against Boston College Eagles guard Jordan Chatman (25) during the second half at Conte Forum. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

I want to give a quick shoutout to VIP Member “TheSoprano12” on their $100,000 win earlier this season!! Better go buy a Boban jersey after that one!

Early Slate:

Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Lakers

Vegas Total: 213.0

Vegas Spread: Utah -5.0

We’ll kick this slate off with an island game, you’ll have to play the showdown slate to get exposure to this one. Starting with the Jazz, Donovan Mitchell will be out for a little bit with an ankle sprain, so we can run some data with him off the court this season:

  • Joran Clarkson – 31.5% usage rate; 1.19 fpm
  • Rudy Gobert – 18.8% usage rate; 1.36 fpm
  • Mike Conley – 23.6% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
  • Joe Ingles – 16.3% usage rate; 0.94 fpm

These would be the four main guys I have an interest in, you can throw Bojan Bogdanovic in there as well but he’s more of a DraftKings guy due to the three-point bonus. On FanDuel I like pivoting to Royce O’Neale to take advantage of the three-point block/steal scoring. From the Lakers, Andre Drummond will have his hands full here with Gobert and company on the other end. I do like the upside on him however but as always more of a GPP guy than anything. It sounds like Kyle Kuzma and Dennis Schroder will be good to go here. Schroder is in much better form than Kuzma, but they’ll need production from them both if they want to keep this one close. Talen Horton-Tucker and Monrtezl Harrell are solid GPP options as well who are coming off nice games. That being said, Drummond was out last game which led to Harrell producing a bit more and Horton-Tucker was fueled by Markieff Morris being out. So, if Morris is out you can go back to Horton-Tucker on a short-slate, but with Drummond back, Harrell worries be a bit.

***We just got the news that Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, and Derrick Favors will rest in this game, so jump into that Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding the Jazz as a whole, there should be plenty of value to go around***

5-star play: Jordan Clarkson, Joe Ingles

4-star play: Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Dennis Schroder, Kyle Kuzma

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Royce O’Neale, Bojan Bogdanovic, Talen Horton-Tucker, Montrezl Harrell

Main Slate:

Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards

Vegas Total: 226.0

Vegas Spread: Was -4.5

Starting with the Pistons, they were a disaster last night but sounds like they should be getting a good chunk of their guys back here. When they have a rotation full of healthy bodies, it’s a team that’s really hard to get a grasp of. They had 7 guys listed as out last night and still somehow went 10 deep with their rotation. The one saving grace they have here is the matchup, the Wizards are the fastest team in the league. Jerami Grant struggled in this matchup twice this season averaging around 20 fantasy points in both of them, but the minutes should be there and it’s a short slate. Saddiq Bey has played at least 31 minutes in four of his last five games and is clearly a guy they want to get a good look at to round out this season. The SF position is one that can be tough to get covered so he’s a great play, particularly on FanDuel. I don’t trust the minutes on Mason Plumlee enough for him to soak up a center spot, the opportunity cost at center is always so high so no issue fading him here. Isaiah Stewart should continue to see solid run even with Plumlee back, he’s a nice option on FanDuel as well where he’s a PF. Then this backcourt is a bit of a disaster with guys like Cory Joseph, Saben Lee, Killian Hayes, Frank Jackson, and Wayne Ellington. Joseph and Hayes would be my favorite options, but more of GPP guys. From the Wizards, it’s pretty easy, it’s Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal, and that’s about it. Westbrook has at least 62 FanDuel points in three straight games, while his triple-double streak came to an end last night he was still able to produce, he’s one of the top raw options on the slate. The minutes on Beal have come up, he has at least 37 in three straight and a guy you can go back to here as well. Outside of them there really isn’t much I love here, Rui Hachimura has been in terrible form and the rest of the guys are too volatile. There is one sleeper though, Daniel Gafford had a big night last night and is under $4k on both sites, I think you could do worse if you’re strapped for value.

5-star play: Russell Westbrook, Bradley Beal

4-star play: Jerami Grant, Saddiq Bey

Deeper Value: Daniel Gafford

GPP Sleeper: Josh Jackson, Mason Plumlee, Isaiah Stewart, Killian Hayes, Cory Joseph

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Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls

Vegas Total: 212.0

Vegas Spread: Chi -2.0

Starting with the Cavaliers, it looks like they’re finally healthy for once. Jarrett Allen has at least 39 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and gets a solid matchup here. You can get to him on both sites at this price tag. Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are the same price on both sites tonight, but I think they’re both in play yet again. They’ve both been pretty solid and we know they have some upside to them. The minutes are still down on Larry Nance so he’s more of a fade than anything for me, but I will go back to Kevin Love even though he struggled last time out. Once you get past Love, you’re sort of just throwing darts, so that’ll about round out my interest in the Cavs. From the Bulls, Zach LaVine will continue to be out for them, so we can run some data with him off the court this season:

  • Coby White – 25.4% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
  • Nikola Vucevic – 27.7% usage rate; 1.54 fpm
  • Lauri Markkanen – 20.9% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
  • Patrick Williams – 23.0% usage rate; 1.13 fpm

These would be my favorite options on the Bulls, but you can make a case for guys like Daniel Theis, Thad Young, and Denzel Valentine for GPPs. I do like the price on Thad Young much better on FanDuel at $4.9k. Vucevic looks like a top option at center on FanDuel as well, he and Coby White had a big game last night with LaVine out and should continue to do so here.

5-star play: Nikola Vucevic, Coby White

4-star play: Jarrett Allen, Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Kevin Love, Thad Young

Deeper Value: Lauri Markkanen, Patrick Williams

GPP Sleeper: Kevin Love, Daniel Theis, Denzel Valentine

Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics

Vegas Total: 228.0

Vegas Spread: Bos -5.0

Starting with the Warriors, it sounds like Kelly Oubre Jr. will be questionable coming into this one, so keep an eye on our Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him. If he plays it hurts Steph Curry a bit who has been on a heater. I would still be okay getting to Curry regardless however due to the size of the slate, and he dropped over 70 fantasy points on the Celtics earlier this season. Draymond Green is a solid option on both sites, you’ll have a good chance at the double-double/triple-double bonus on DraftKings while he gets a boost on those blocks and steals on FanDuel. I can never get Andrew Wiggins right, but he’s in play for tournaments at the very least. Outside of those guys there isn’t a whole lot to love, Kent Bazemore came down last game and it looks like Jordan Poole has started to steal some of his production, but if Oubre is back we can just ignore both of them. Lastly, Kevon Looney saw 27 minutes last game if you’re looking for a value option but not a guy I would go to on FanDuel since he’s a center over there. From the Celtics, Robert Williams will be out again here which gives us a value center with some upside on both sites in Tristan Thompson. He played 24 minutes last time out and should start again here, he’s a solid value option, although I do worry about the Warriors going small at times. Jayson Tatum had a rough game last time out, but this is a nice pace-up spot for guys like him and Jaylen Brown. Then you can round the Celtics out with secondary pieces in Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart. They’re guys I don’t love, but on a short slate, you have to consider them in a pace-up matchup.

5-star play: Steph Curry, Jayson Tatum

4-star play: Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Tristan Thompson, Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown

Deeper Value: Tristan Thompson, Kevon Looney (DraftKings only)

GPP Sleeper: Kelly Oubre Jr., Andrew Wiggins, Marcus Smart

Memphis Grizzlies @ Milwaukee Bucks

Vegas Total: 237.0

Vegas Spread: Mil -8.0

Starting with the Grizzlies, Ja Morant cooked the Bucks last time these two played after he started slowly in the first half. He’s a guy that will see a nice boost in pace-up games like this one and the price on both sites is really nice. Jonas Valanciunas continues to play really well, it’s between him and Vucevic if you’re paying up on FanDuel, and he’s a great option on DraftKings as well. I never love getting to Kyle Anderson, but as I mentioned with Saddiq Bey, SF can be tough to cover, so he’s in play especially if Brandon Clarke and De’Anthony Melton are out again, securing his minutes a bit more. The same can be said for Dillon Brooks, more of a GPP guy, but his skill-set will play well against a Bucks team that has no issue giving you the three-point shot. From the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo played just 25 minutes last game in his first game back after missing the previous six games. The Bucks don’t have a whole lot of reason to push him toward the end of the season, they’ll do what they can to preserve him a bit for the playoffs especially after returning from an injury. I would rather find the extra salary for Russell Westbrook, he’s a fine GPP option just because the matchup is great and his upside is huge but I think you can find more safety elsewhere. The rest of the Bucks are going to be hard to get to as well because they’re all priced as if Giannis is out still which obviously isn’t the case.

5-star play: Ja Morant

4-star play: Jonas Valanciunas, Giannis Antetokounmpo

Deeper Value: Bryn Forbes

GPP Sleeper: Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton

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San Antonio Spurs @ Phoenix Suns

Vegas Total: 227.5

Vegas Spread: Pho -9.5

Starting with the Spurs, DeMar DeRozan is coming off a great game last time out but this is a really tough matchup as the Suns have played some great defense this season. The same can be said for Dejounte Murray but I feel more comfortable with his floor, so I’m probably a bit more likely to get to him here. Derrick White is a fine mid-range option on both sites if you need him, but he’s more of a filler piece. I do like getting to some Jakob Poeltl even on FanDuel if you’re looking to save a little off of Vucevic and Valanciunas, he brings some nice upside in a sneaky good matchup against DeAndre Ayton down low. Then, as always, Keldon Johnson is your GPP special. His floor is extremely low, but we’ve seen him pop off for a 50 burger a few times and I would actually consider him in cash games over on FanDuel at a dirt-cheap price tag. From the Suns, Devin Booker and Chris Paul kind of grade out similarly but I do like targeting guards against this Spurs, they’ve struggled all season against them on defense, both make sense in all formats. Jakob Poeltl is sneaky good on defense so it’s not as good as a matchup as you might think for DeAndre Ayton, but he’s in good enough form where you can go to him here. Then you can round this team out at the wings with Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder as filler pieces.

5-star play: Keldon Johnson (FanDuel)

4-star play: DeMar DeRozan, Dejounte Murray, Jakob Poeltl, Keldon Johnson (DraftKings), Chris Paul, Devin Booker

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder

NBA Lock of the Day: DK – Tristan Thompson ($4.5k); FD – Keldon Johnson  (FD – $4.2k)

How about two for the price of one tonight! These guys just feel too cheap at their respective prices tonight. Tristan Thompson will benefit a good deal with Robert Williams out and Keldon Johnson allows you to fill in a tough SF position on FanDuel that isn’t so pretty. At this moment I would imagine they make my Core on our Cheat Sheets/Coaches Notes for tonight, come check out the other core plays as well! These notes include Core plays, player ranks, and tiers notes, so come check them out! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 5x tonight I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

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