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NBA DFS Slate Breakdown Strategy, Picks, and Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Apr. 14th, 2021

Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 4/14:

Mar 4, 2017; College Station, TX, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard De’Aaron Fox (0) brings the ball up the court during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Reed Arena. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

I want to give a quick shoutout to VIP Member “TheSoprano12” on their $100,000 win earlier this season!! Better go buy a Boban jersey after that one!

Early Slate:

Milwaukee Bucks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Vegas Total: NA

Vegas Spread: NA

We’ll kick this slate off with an island game, you’ll have to play the showdown slate to get exposure to this one. It sounds like Giannis Antetokounmpo was able to practice yesterday and comes into this one as questionable. Karl-Anthony Towns is questionable on the other side as well, if I had to bet, I would think Giannis sits here, they don’t necessarily need him in this matchup, but keep an eye on that Breaking News Feed nonetheless. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton have been less than impressive with Giannis out over the past few games. It doesn’t seem like they’re the lock and load plays we had with this team last season. That said, on a short slate, they would be pretty strong options here. Bobby Portis didn’t start for Giannis last game as the Bucks chose to start Pat Connaughton instead, his minutes went down to 23 but he still put up 34 DraftKings points, he would be a great option in this matchup as well. I would really only have interest in Connaughton and Brook Lopez if Giannis were to sit, but you can get to Donte DiVincenzo as a secondary option. From the Wolves, D’Angelo Russell continues to show he’s just going to be a volatile option to round off the season, they did get blown out pretty good yesterday which caused him to see fewer minutes, but that will be the case a lot.  Karl-Anthony Towns scored 55 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and has at least 50 fantasy points in ten straight games, he’s an elite option if he plays. Anthony Edwards should continue to see big minutes and a ton of shot attempts even with Russell back, he’s shown consistency as well which gives you the opportunity to play him in cash. Lastly, Ricky Rubio is a fine one-off option if you’re looking for a cheaper guy.

***The below assumes Giannis is out***

5-star play: Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis, Karl-Anthony Towns

4-star play: Donte DiVincenzo, Pat Connaughton, Anthony Edwards

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Brook Lopez, Jaden McDaniels, Ricky Rubio, D’Angelo Russell

Main Slate:

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Charlotte Hornets

Vegas Total: NA

Vegas Spread: NA

Starting with the Cavaliers, both Collin Sexton and Darius Garland missed the last game which caused Matthew Dellavedova to rise from the depths. I would assume he gets the start again if they sit, but his price has come up so keep an eye on that situation. It sounds like both Larry Nance Jr. and Jarrett Allen will play here after being out for about two weeks, keep an eye on any sort of minutes restriction here, if they’re a full-go I like them in this matchup. Kevin Love saw 31-minute last time out, I don’t think that will change much with these two guys coming back, as he’s one of their better talents on the team, but more of a GPP guy nonetheless. We can probably get off guys like Isaiah Hartenstein and Dean Wade however, those minutes are going to vanish a bit. From the Hornets, Terry Rozier and PJ Washington ended up missing last night’s game and come into this one as questionable, keep an eye on their status, but I’ll operate under the assumption that they’ll play nor now. Rozier hasn’t been all that great over his last couple of games. With Malik Monk, LaMelo Ball, and Gordon Hayward all off the court there is going to be some extra usage and opportunity to go around for the rest of these starters, but I just hate the price tag, we haven’t seen him produce well enough to warrant that rate. Devonte’ Graham has four straight games with at least 30 DraftKings points and looks like a solid option here. Lastly, Miles Bridges and Jalen McDaniels have looked great at the wings, I like them both yet again here at their respective price tags.

5-star play: None

4-star play: Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Kevin Love, Miles Bridges, Jalen McDaniels, Devonte’ Graham

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Larry Nance Jr, Jarrett Allen, Terry Rozier, PJ Washington

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Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers

Vegas Total: NA

Vegas Spread: NA

Starting with the Nets, James Harden and LaMarcus Aldridge will continue to be out here while Kyrie Irving comes into this one as questionable. Kevin Durant is starting to get to the point where I think we can start to consider him. He played 27 minutes yesterday and dropped 31 real points in that time. He’s priced about right as well, but more of a GPP option in hopes he gets that minute count up over 30. Joe Harris is coming off a nice game as well, he’s more of a GPP guy due to his scoring dependency, however. Bruce Brown would be a guy I have an interest in if Irving ends up sitting again while guys like Jeff Green and Blake Griffin haven’t done enough as of late for me to have interest in them on a big slate. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid is averaging 47.1 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Nets this season and is a solid play yet again, they’ll have no answer for him. Ben Simmons will continue to be a fade for me, he’s just not producing enough to warrant this price tag. Tobias Harris has taken a hit with Embiid back, He’s been held under 40 DraftKings points in four straight games but does get a nice matchup with the Nets here. Lastly, the three amigos in Danny Green, Seth Curry, and Shake Milton are fine MME guys, but good luck determining which of them is going to have the big night.

5-star play: Joel Embiid

4-star play: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Tobias Harris, Danny Green, Seth Curry, Shake Milton, Ben Simmons

San Antonio Spurs @ Toronto Raptors

Vegas Total: NA

Vegas Spread: NA

Starting with the Spurs, Dejounte Murray has at least 32 DraftKings points in nine straight games showing some consistency as of late, the Raptors aren’t exactly a defense I’m all that worried about at this point in the season either. DeMar DeRozan came back down to Earth last game but saw fewer minutes due to a blowout, it’s a revenge game for him if you take that type of thing into account, more of a GPP guy for me due to his volatility as of late. Jakob Poeltl saw fewer minutes as well due to the blowout, you can go back to him again here, the price tag is more than fair. Derrick White is a fine option but I think we can do better in this price range. Lastly, we know the floor and ceiling that Keldon Johnson brings to the table, but he’s not a guy I would touch in a cash game. From the Raptors, Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet are going to be out again here along with DeAndre’ Bembry which is bigger news than you might think. This all but locks Malachi Flynn into a 35-minute role and will start again here. Pascal Siakam bounced back last night going for 50 DraftKings points, but I wouldn’t be all that surprised if he sat on the second half of a back-to-back, that’s just reckless speculation on my end though. The price is too high on OG Anunoby as well, he needs around 38 DraftKings points just to get you 5x at this price tag. Lastly, Chris Boucher and Gary Trent Jr. are solid GPP options but we know the volatility that comes with them.

5-star play: Malachi Flynn

4-star play: Dejounte Murray, Jakob Poeltl, Pascal Siakam

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: DeMar DeRozan, Keldon Johnson, Chris Boucher, Gary Trent Jr., Derrick White

Los Angeles Clippers @ Detroit Pistons

Vegas Total: 228.0

Vegas Spread: Por -1.0

Starting with the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard comes into this one as questionable due to soreness… I would think they just give him an extra rest day in this matchup. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Paul George take a seat either on the back end of a back-to-back, he played nearly 40 minutes last night, but again, just reckless speculation on my part. George would become an elite option again if Kawhi were to sit. We can run the same data as we did yesterday with Kawhi off the court this season:

  • Paul George – 36.3% usage rate; 1.55 fpm
  • Terance Mann – 19.0% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
  • Luke Kennard – 22.8% usage rate; 1.05 fpm
  • Reggie Jackson – 22.7% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
  • Marcus Morris – 25.9% usage rate; 1.16 fpm

Paul George is the clear guy you’ll want here, he has at least 50 DraftKings points in four straight games. Marcus Morris and Nic Batum had nice games the last time out as well and are at cheap price points. From the Pistons, Mason Plumlee got his minutes up to 27 last time out, but on a big slate, I’m not going to trust them to give him the minutes he needs to lead you to cash here. Josh Jackson looked great last game as well, but with this team near full health, I’m going to have trouble getting too much of it. Saddiq Bey looked solid as well and his minutes are trending in the right direction, his minutes should be pretty secure as he’s a young guy the Pistons want to get a hard look at to end the season. The last guy that should see big minutes is Cory Joseph, he’s been getting good run lately and a guy they seem like they want to get a good look at. The rest of this team is more of a stay away than anything really, they went 13 guys deep yesterday which is just going to be tough to secure minutes and fantasy production when guys aren’t getting solid minutes.

5-star play: Paul George

4-star play: Marcus Morris, Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard, Cory Joseph

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Terance Mann, Luke Kennard, Jerami Grant, Saddiq Bey

New York Knicks @ New Orleans Pelicans

Vegas Total: 220.0

Vegas Spread: Nop -2.5

Starting with the Knicks, Julius Randle has at least 49 DraftKings points in four straight games and the Pelicans have struggled with opposing power forwards on the season. RJ Barrett has looked good over his past few games as well, I don’t love the price tag on him, but he’s solid for GPPs. Alec Burks has lost his minutes with most of these guys coming back from injury, his price did come down, but I just don’t see the upside on him. Reggie Bullock has had back-to-back nice games but is he really a guy you want to play on an 11-game slate? Derrick Rose and Elfrid Payton continue to split this backcourt pretty evenly, if it were a smaller slate I would have interest, but again, I think we can do better. From the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram has at least 45 DraftKings points in two straight games and is a guy you can get to here in GPPs at the very least. Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker will continue to be out here, however. Let’s run some data with these three guys off the court this season:

  • Zion Williamson – 33.2% usage rate; 1.53 fpm
  • Brandon Ingram – 29.2% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
  • Eric Bledsoe – 20.2% usage rate; 0.82 fpm

It’s pretty clear that Zion is going to be the guy you want here, he should run this offense and is in great form. Eric Bledsoe is a fine GPP option, but I don’t think we’ll need to get to him on this slate. One guy I would have some interest in GPPs would be Kira Lewis Jr. at $4.2k on DraftKings, they’ll need him to soak up some of those backcourt minutes, and has been over a point per minute with these three off the court this season.

5-star play: Julius Randle, Zion Williamson

4-star play: Brandon Ingram, Eric Bledsoe

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Steven Adams, RJ Barrett, Eric Bledsoe, Derrick Rose

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Orlando Magic @ Chicago Bulls

Vegas Total: 218.5

Vegas Spread: Chi -9.5

Starting with the Magic, Michael Carter-Williams and Cole Anthony have both returned to action and have been a bit all over the place. I’ll want the minutes on Anthony to get up to that 30 range before I go too crazy on him, however. Terrence Ross has been held under 15 DraftKings points in two straight games, I’m just not going to play him right now, there are better spots on this slate. Wendell Carter Jr. is a guy I’ll have some interest in against his old team, he has at least 27 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and has shown a decent enough ceiling. Chuma Okeke comes into this one as questionable so you’ll want to keep an eye on his availability, if he does play he’s a fine secondary tournament option. Then you can round this team out with wing GPP guys like James Ennis and Dwayne Bacon, but not a whole lot of interest there. I would rather save some money and go down to RJ Hampton who scored 25.5 DraftKings points last time out. From the Bulls,  Zach LaVine has at least 40 DraftKings points in five straight games and has seemed to figure out how to play with Vucevic, I have no issue going back to him in this spot. Nikola Vucevic gets a revenge game against his old squad… although I’m not sure how much you can call it a revenge game, they did him a favor by shipping him out. Nonetheless, he should do whatever he wants down low here. Thad Young had a down game last time out, but he’s been really solid as of late and as mentioned, the Magic are not so great on defense. Lastly, I do like the price discounts we’re getting on Lauri Markkanen and Coby White, they bring nice upsides to the table and will play solid minutes for this Bulls team.

5-star play: Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic

4-star play: Wendell Carter Jr., Thad Young

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Michael Carter-Williams, RJ Hampton, Terrence Ross, Lauri Markkanen, Coby White

Indiana Pacers @ Houston Rockets

Vegas Total: 233.0

Vegas Spread: Ind -4.5

Starting with the Pacers, the only injury to note for them is Myles Turner, who will come in as questionable, but I would think he’s closer to doubtful. One thing to note on the Pacers is they’re playing a lot faster than they were earlier in the season which has been helping their DFS production a good deal. Domantas Sabonis has at least 41 DraftKings points in three straight games. He does see a slight boost with Turner off the court as well, he’ll likely start at the five and is a great option here against a pretty bad interior. I don’t love the price tag on Caris LeVert, but it’s not without warrant, he has at least 52 DraftKings points in two straight games. Malcolm Brogdon followed up his 60 point fantasy night with a solid 40 point night, he’s a solid option in all formats in a nice matchup. From the Rockets, John Wall scored 43 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and looks like a solid option here again, especially for GPPs. Christian Wood finally showed us a ceiling game last time out, maybe he starts to get hot here, I’m good with him in GPPs as well. Kevin Porter Jr. also had a 50 burger last time out, I think it’s going to be between him and Wall each night having the big night, so don’t pair these guys in your lineups. Then you can round this team out with GPP guys in Kelly Olynyk and Jae’sean Tate.

5-star play: Domantas Sabonis

4-star play: Caris LeVert, Malcolm Brogdon, John Wall, Christian Wood, Kevin Porter Jr.

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Kelly Olynyk, Jae’sean Tate

Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Vegas Total: 225.0

Vegas Spread: GSW -11.0

Starting with the Warriors, with Kelly Oubre out again tonight, I’m just going to go right back to Steph Curry. He has a 36.5% usage rate and 1.75 fantasy points per minute with Oubre and James Wiseman off the court this season. We should see Kent Bazemore back in the starting lineup as well, however, I don’t love the price increase on him. We kind of know the story on Andrew Wiggins by now, he’s more of a GPP guy due to his volatility. Lastly, Draymond Green is a solid option here as well, he should give these young Thunder guys fits down low on both ends of the court. From the Thunder, Moses Brown bounced back nicely last night and now has at least 31 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. Kenrich Williams has seen his minutes plummet, with Darius Bazley back we will likely see that again here. Speaking of Bazley, he looked awful last night and is just going to be a GPP guy going forward due to his volatility. Lu Dort went bonkers last night going for 65 DraftKings points, I wouldn’t expect him to shoot 7-11 from three-point range again, but he’s a solid option at this price tag nonetheless. Lastly, Theo Maledon is a fine secondary option, the minutes should still be there on him as he continues to run the point.

5-star play: Steph Curry

4-star play: Draymond Green, Kent Bazemore, Moses Brown, Lu Dort

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Andrew Wiggins, Darius Bazley, Theo Maledon

Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies

Vegas Total: 225.5

Vegas Spread: Dal -2.0

Starting with the Mavericks, Luka Doncic hasn’t been all that great lately in relation to his price tag. He’s been held under 55 DraftKings points in nine of his last ten games but isn’t priced as so. That said, we know the upside is there somewhere, and it’s a nice matchup if you want to go there in tournaments. Kristaps Porzingis has at least 55 DraftKings points in two straight games and looks to be a nice tournament option here as well. Other than Kristaps and Luka I never really get too much from the Mavs, but you can make a case for Tim Hardaway, Josh Richardson, and Jalen Brunson as deep GPP guys. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant has looked pretty good over his past few games and I do like the price tag here, he’s a great option for GPPs due to the ceiling he’ll bring. Jonas Valanciunas continues to destroy opposing big men, he has at least 42 DraftKings points in four straight and at least 50 in two straight, he’s too cheap considering his production right now. Dillon Brooks bounced back nicely last time out and should continue to see a few extra minutes with De’Anthony Melton out and Brandon Clarke coming in as questionable. The same can be said for Kyle Anderson, he has at least 30 DraftKings points in seven of his last nine games.

5-star play: Jonas Valanciunas

4-star play: Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, Ja Morant

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Tim Hardaway, Josh Richardson, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson

Washington Wizards @ Sacramento Kings

Vegas Total: 238.5

Vegas Spread: Was -1.5

This game should be pretty popular considering the implied total, both these teams play fast and loose. We’ll start with the Wizards, it’s hard not to like Russell Westbrook here, he has at least 60 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and gets an incredible matchup. Bradley Beal looked good last game as well and finally got those minutes back up near 40, he’s a great option here. Other than them the only other guys I would really have any sort of interest in here would be Rui Hachimura and Davis Bertans, but more GPP than anything on them. From the Kings, De’Aaron Fox has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and put up 49 in this spot earlier this season. He’s playing a ton of minutes and is a great option here. The big news with this team is that Richaun Holmes is doubtful. We will likely see a combination of Hassan Whiteside and Damian Jones run with the center minutes. Buddy Hield also comes in as questionable, we saw Moe Harkless start in his place last time out, and looked great in doing so, you can go back to Harkless here if Hield is out. Lastly, Tyrese Haliburton hasn’t been as effective as of late but he’s still seeing 30+ minutes per game, I like him a lot in this matchup.

5-star play: Russell Westbrook, Bradley Beal, De’Aaron Fox

4-star play: Rui Hachimura, Harrison Barnes, Tyrese Haliburton

Deeper Value: Moe Harkless, Hassan Whiteside, Damian Jones

GPP Sleeper: Davis Bertans

Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets

Vegas Total: 212

Vegas Spread: Den -4.0

Starting with the Heat, they’ll be without Victor Oladipo here, as he didn’t make the trip. Jimmy Butler has at least 43 DraftKings points in five of his last six games and is pretty much matchup-proof at this point, I have no issue going to him against a Nuggets team that has struggled with opposing wings. Bam Adebayo will have his hands full in this one with Jokic and scored just 31 fantasy points in this one earlier this season. Lastly, Tyler Herro looked good last time out as well and is a guy I don’t hate here, while Duncan Robinson is always a GPP guy due to how scoring-dependent he is. From the Nuggets, the big news here is that Jamal Murray tore his ACL and will be out for the rest of this season. Here is how the team grades out with him off the court this season:

  • Monte Morris – 18.8% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
  • Nikola Jokic – 34.5% usage rate; 1.68 fpm
  • Michael Porter Jr. – 23.3% usage rate; 1.14 fpm

These would be the main three guys I want from this team. You can make a case for Aaron Gordon as well, but he’s more of a GPP guy. We’ll see Facundo Campazzo get some additional run as well and makes sense as a sub $4k option on DraftKings.

5-star play: Nikola Jokic

4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Monte Morris, Michael Porter Jr.

Deeper Value: Facundo Campazzo

GPP Sleeper: Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, Duncan Robinson, Aaron Gordon

NBA Lock of the Day: Malachi Flynn (DK – $5.5k; FD – $5.3k)

I’m just going to go right back to the Malachi Flynn train here. Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, and DeAndre’ Bembry will all miss tonight’s game which all but locks Flynn into 35ish minutes. He’s been a great point per dollar guy over the past few weeks and has some meat on the bone at this price tag yet. At this moment I would imagine he makes my Core on our Cheat Sheets/Coaches Notes for tonight, come check out the other core plays as well! These notes include Core plays, player ranks, and tiers notes, so come check them out! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 5x tonight I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

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