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NBA DFS Slate Breakdown Strategy, Picks, and Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Apr. 13th, 2021

Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 4/13:

Mar 9, 2017; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Jayson Tatum (0) controls the ball against Louisville Cardinals guard Donovan Mitchell (45) during the second half of an ACC Conference Tournament game at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sportsat Barclays Center.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

I want to give a quick shoutout to VIP Member “TheSoprano12” on their $100,000 win earlier this season!! Better go buy a Boban jersey after that one!

Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors

Vegas Total: 223.5

Vegas Spread: Tor -3.0

We’ll kick this slate off with the Hawks, Trae Young comes into this one as questionable but is coming off a 64 point fantasy game in which he shot just 1-6 from three-point range… and still put up 42 real points. If he plays you can go right back to him at this price tag. Clint Capela should have no issue bodying the combo of Aron Baynes and Chris Boucher down low, he’s expensive but I like him here. He’s averaging 47.9 DraftKings points per game against the Raptors in two games this season. Bogdan Bogdanovic had a nice 48.5 DraftKings point night last time out, if Trae Young ends up sitting again we can go right back to the well on him. Lastly, guys like Kevin Huerter and Lou Williams are fine GPP options but nobody I’m prioritizing. From the Raptors, Kyle Lowry returned last game and played 37 minutes, it’s safe to say he won’t be limited moving forward, he’s a strong play in this spot. Pascal Siakam had a down game last time out and failed to grab a single rebound against the Knicks. This is a nice bounce-back spot for him but the price is definitely up there. The price is too high on OG Anunoby as well, he needs around 36 DraftKings points just to get you 5x at this price tag. Lastly, Chris Boucher is a guy I’ll have some interest in, he has at least 44 DraftKings points in two of his last three games, but we know those minutes can become volatile.

5-star play: Trae Young, Kyle Lowry

4-star play: Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Pascal Siakam, Chris Boucher

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Kevin Huerter, Lou Williams, Bogdan Bogdanovic

Los Angeles Clippers @ Indiana Pacers

Vegas Total: 229.0

Vegas Spread: Lac -2.5

Starting with the Clippers,

Kawhi Leonard will be out here again, so let’s run some data with him, Lou Williams, Beverley, and Ibaka off the court this season:

  • Paul George – 36.3% usage rate; 1.55 fpm
  • Terance Mann – 19.0% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
  • Luke Kennard – 22.8% usage rate; 1.05 fpm
  • Reggie Jackson – 22.7% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
  • Marcus Morris – 25.9% usage rate; 1.16 fpm

Paul George is the clear guy you’ll want here, he has at least 50 DraftKings points in three straight games. Marcus Morris and Nic Batum had nice games the last time out as well and are at cheap price points. From the Pacers, the only injury to note for them is Myles Turner, who will be out for this one. Domantas Sabonis put up 50.5 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and coming off a solid game last time out. He does see a slight boost with Turner off the court as well, he’ll likely start at the five and is a great option here. I don’t love the price tag on Caris LeVert, more of a GPP guy, but he is coming off a 53.25 point fantasy night last time out. Malcolm Brogdon bounced back in a big way last time out going for 62.75 DraftKings points, I wouldn’t expect that kind of production from him again but you can certainly go here against a depleted Clippers defense.

5-star play: Paul George, Domantas Sabonis

4-star play: Marcus Morris, Reggie Jackson, Caris LeVert, Malcolm Brogdon

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Terance Mann, Luke Kennard, Nic Batum, Caris LeVert, TJ McConnell

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Los Angeles Lakers @ Charlotte Hornets

Vegas Total: 208.5

Vegas Spread: Cha -1.5

Woof the total on this one is ugly, but we’ll get started with the Lakers. Kyle Kuzma returned last tight to play 30 minutes but put up just 22.5 DraftKings points, I suppose you could get here but he’s just too priced up for his production right now. Andre Drummond played 25 minutes last night and if he’s going to start playing those types of minutes, we need to have interest, especially if we see that number climb into the 30’s. We saw him be one of the better points per minute guys in the league this season. Dennis Schroder scored 39.5 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and is a solid play in all formats, it’s a pretty nice matchup. Lastly, Montrezl Harrell seems to have taken the biggest hit with Drummond in town, he and Talen Horton-Tucker are more tournament options than anything. From the Hornets, Terry Rozier hasn’t been all that great over his last couple of games. With Malik Monk, LaMelo Ball, and Gordon Hayward all off the court there is going to be some extra usage and opportunity to go around for the rest of these starters, but I just hate the price tag, we haven’t seen him produce well enough to warrant that rate. Devonte’ Graham has three straight games with at least 32 DraftKings points and looks like a solid option here. PJ Washington got injured last game but sounds like he’ll be good to go here, he looked good in his previous two games before getting injured ant the price is pretty nice. Lastly, Miles Bridges and Jalen McDaniels have looked great at the wings, I like them both yet again here at their respective price tags.

5-star play: None

4-star play: Dennis Schroder, Devonte’ Graham, Miles Bridges

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Kyle Kuzma, Andre Drummond, Montrezl Harrell, Talen Horton-Tucker, PJ Washington, Terry Rozier, Jalen McDaniels

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz

Vegas Total: 223.5

Vegas Spread: Utah -16.5

Starting with the Thunder, Moses Brown has seen his production go all over the place since signing that extension with the Thunder. He’s a GPP guy in a tough matchup against Rudy Gobert and company. Kenrich Williams has at least 36 DraftKings points in two of his last three games, but saw his minutes dip again last game, with Darius Bazley back we will likely see that again here. Speaking of Bazley, he returned last game to play 36 minutes, so he clearly won’t be limited, I like going back to him for tournaments as well. Lu Dort returned last game as well, he saw 29 minutes on his way to 26.5 DraftKings points, he’s always more of a volatile guy, but no issue with him at this price tag. Lastly, Theo Maledon is a fine secondary option, the minutes should still be there on him as he continues to run the point. From the Jazz, Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson both missed yesterday’s game and come into this one as questionable. I’m going to operate under the assumption that they sit again just because they don’t necessarily need them in this matchup. Here is some data with Clarkson and Conley off the court this season:

  • Donovan Mitchell – 36.2% usage rate; 1.42 fpm
  • Bojan Bogdanovic – 22.7% usage rate; 0.89 fpm
  • Joe Ingles – 17.6% usage rate; 1.00 fpm
  • Rudy Gobert – 16.4% usage rate; 1.21 fpm

These would be the four guys I have the most interest in, particularly Mitchell and Ingles, who had good games last night. They should do what they want here in this matchup as well, I’m fine with most of the Jazz rotation tonight assuming these two are out.

***The below assumes Clarkson and Conley are out***

5-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles

4-star play: Bojan Bogdanovic, Rudy Gobert, Moses Brown, Darius Bazley, Theo Maledon

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Royce O’Neale, Moses Brown, Darius Bazley, Lu Dort

Boston Celtics @ Portland Trailblazers

Vegas Total: 228.0

Vegas Spread: Por -1.0

Starting with the Celtics,  Jayson Tatum came down to Earth last game but still looked solid going for 47 DraftKings points. This is an elite spot for him, go right back to the well here. Jaylen Brown looked solid as well last time out after coming in as questionable, there should be plenty of offensive looks for him in this one as well. Kemba Walker has been as of late, I would prefer him for cash games, I just don’t think he has that 50 point upside we’re looking for in this price range. Robert Williams has been pretty average as of late. The one thing that hurts him a bit is Tristan Thompson being back, so he’s more of a GPP guy than a hybrid play. Lastly, Marcus Smart is a solid last piece for all formats at this price tag, he has at least 40 DraftKings points in two of his last three games, this is a great matchup for him as well. From the Blazers, Enes Kanter came down to Earth last game after dropping 70 fantasy points on the Pistons. His minutes are going to continue to decline as long as Jusuf Nurkic is out there, so no interest for me. Damian Lillard is a fine option, I just don’t love the price tag in this matchup. CJ McCollum is a solid cash option, he’s been held under 40 DraftKings points in three straight games, but we know what he’s got in the tank yet. Jusuf Nurkic has at least 27 DraftKings points in four straight games, I don’t have an issue with playing him either, he should be around 25 minutes in this one. Lastly, Norman Powell and Robert Covington are fine filler pieces but not anyone I’m prioritizing.

5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown

4-star play: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Marcus Smart, Kemba Walker

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Robert Williams, Jusuf Nurkic, Norman Powell, Robert Covington

Miami Heat @ Phoenix Suns

Vegas Total: 216.5

Vegas Spread: Pho -3.5

We’ll round out the slate with a bit of an ugly one. Starting with the Heat, they’ll be without Victor Oladipo here, as he didn’t make the trip. Jimmy Butler has at least 43 DraftKings points in five straight games and is pretty much matchup-proof at this point, I have no issue going to him on a shorter slate like this one. Bam Adebayo is a guy I like a good amount here, DeAndre Ayton is not good on defense, Bam should be able to outperform him down low. Lastly, Tyler Herro looked good last time out as well and is a guy I don’t hate here, while Duncan Robinson is always a GPP guy due to how scoring-dependent he is. From the Suns, we kind of know the story on them by now, I don’t love targeting them when they’re fully healthy, but on a six-game slight, we may not have a choice. Devin Booker has at least 43 DraftKings points in four of his last five games, it’s a tougher matchup and the price tag is up, but he’s a fine tournament option at the very least. Chris Paul has been pretty consistent as of last as well, he’s more of a cash guy. DeAndre Ayton will have his hands full with Bam in this one but scored 48 DraftKings points in this spot earlier in the season. Then you can round this team out with filler pieces like Jae Crowder and Mikal Bridges, Crowder looked great in their game last night going for 37 DraftKings points and gets a revenge game here!

5-star play: Bam Adebayo

4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Chris Paul, Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Jae Crowder, Mikal Bridges, Duncan Robinson

MLB is upon us! DFSArmy VIP Members had a big season last year and are in for some big things again this season! We will have cheat sheets, breakdowns, and many other tools to help make you successful in one of the more volatile fantasy sports.

NBA Lock of the Day: Joe Ingles (DK – $5.9k; FD – $5.8k)

I’m going to assume that Jordan Clarkson and Mike Conley will miss this game for the Jazz which means we can fire up Jingles! He should get the start again with these guys out and looked great last night going for 34 DraftKings points. He now has at least 33 DraftKings points in three games and is right around a point-per-minute guy with these two off the court. At this moment I would imagine he makes my Core on our Cheat Sheets/Coaches Notes for tonight, come check out the other core plays as well! These notes include Core plays, player ranks, and tiers notes, so come check them out! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 5x tonight I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

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