Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/18:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Freddy Peralta
- Trevor Bauer
- Pablo Lopez
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Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox – Game 1
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Red Sox – Tanner Houck
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: P
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Bogaerts and Martinez each have an HR off of Keuchel.
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox – Game 2
Pitchers:
White Sox – Undecided
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Pivetta has struggled with RHBs so far this season but traditionally it’s been the LHBs.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Devers is raking right now at the plate.
Houston Astros (-111) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Mariners – Nick Margevicius
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Both of these SPs have been knocked around in 2021. The issue here is that both offenses are currently below average so I am just not sure they have what it takes to attack these SPs. I am going to have to dig deeper into this match-up and I should have a better idea of what I want to do with it when my Cheat Sheet comes out on the site.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Just looking at mini-stacks while the main bats of HOU are on the IL.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Odorizzi is NOT sharp right now. The issue is that SEA doesn’t have much of an offense.
San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins (-121)
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Wood
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a pretty low total of 8. I think that both of these SPs are intriguing but Wood might not make the cut because we just don’t know how many innings/pitches he’s going to throw in his return. I haven’t read anything about how many pitches he threw in his last appearance, on Tuesday. Lopez has looked strong at home to begin this season but is coming off of a rough start against the Braves. Should be a pretty strong bounceback spot for him.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Tommy La Stella
GPP Note: No desire to pick on Lopez with a weaker Giants lineup.
MIA 5-star plays: Miguel Rojas
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Mini-stacks at the top of the lineup, if anything at all.
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels
GAME IS PPD DUE TO COVID SITUATION WITH THE TWINS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (-195)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Chad Kuhl
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Peralta should be one of the most popular SPs in this match-up as a huge favorite with an opposing low team total. The Brewers offense broke out a bit early in Saturday’s game and they should keep it going in this one as Kuhl just isn’t sharp on the mound. I have been sneaking in PIT bats this series and while I love Peralta, I will be using the guys below as one-offs or mini-stacks in some of my non-Peralta builds.
PIT 5-star plays: Colin Moran
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Not as big on PIT today as I was on Friday night.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Travis Shaw, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: This MIL offense should get a chance to do some damage.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Orioles – John Means
Rangers – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Both of these SPs have flashed strong performances this season but they’ve also had a rough one each. It helps that both guys are getting to face below-average offenses at this point. My initial thought is that I like Means’ upside a little more than Gibson without taking price points into consideration.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Mostly looking at one-offs from BALT.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Charlie Culberson
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .148 against LHPs so far this season.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I think both SPs are in play but I also think that both offenses are in play in our stack pools. Ray has a control issue and if you’ve read my stuff before you know that I think walks are the worst thing to see for SPs. Big time innings happen when walks occur. Singer is a young arm that has future upside but he’s struggled to begin 2021 after being extremely solid in his 2020 debut season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Imagine if this TOR lineup was completely healthy!
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Hanser Alberto
GPP Note: Interesting spot to use Ray AND KC bats in different lineups.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (-255)
Pitchers:
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Cole is just a flat-out stud as he falls in the #2 spot for me in terms of SPs in the majors (behind the obvious, deGrom). Yarbrough has given up 15 runs over his last 2 starts, with the last one coming against an anemic TEX offense. With the way things have been, this feels like a get right spot for the Yankees bats and I will be overweight.
TBR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: NEVER plan on suggesting that we attack G.Cole.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: The Yankees offense has let a lot of people down recently so let’s jump on board here!
St Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies (-180)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – John Gant
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I have a ton of respect for Nola’s home splits and will, almost, never attack him with stacks in Philadelphia. I know the Cardinals just exploded on Saturday and I predicted it in this article but I am going to the Nola side here. Gant is somebody that I think goes back to the bullpen long-term as his stuff plays down as an SP. With that said, he’s been serviceable so far and the PHI lineup hasn’t started clicking yet.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Just one-offs against Nola when he’s at home.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Just looking at one-offs from PHI.
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Braves – Bryse Wilson
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: I think Acuna is now the hottest hitter in baseball.
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Javier Baez
GPP Note: Well the Cubs certainly woke up on Saturday, hitting 6 HRs. The weather is going to be key here.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (-195)
Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Madison Bumgarner
Nationals – Stephen Strasburg
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Strasburg is going to end up near the top in terms of largest favorites on the slate. He hasn’t looked very good to begin the 2021 season but this match-up could be a stepping stone in the right direction. I say that in regards to his last start as he was strong against ATL to begin the season. The key is going to be avoiding the random HR ball. Speaking of HRs, Bumgarner is giving them up in bunches. I know he’s given up just 3 of them so far in the regular season but he struggled mightily in the spring as well. Hopefully, we get to see the Nationals bats wake up.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Mainly just a one-off shot in my GPP builds.
WAS 5-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Harrison
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Starlin Castro
GPP Note: Plenty of ways to go here as Harrison and Castro have strong BvP and Zimmerman destroys LHPs.
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Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics (-135)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8.5. Bassitt intrigues me a ton as the Tigers have a team average of just .226 against RHPs this season which is interesting considering they have a team ISO of .197 against them. They are striking out at a 27% rate against RHPs so far in 2021. Boyd has been stellar to begin the 2021 season and I think that continues here as he spent the offseason working on rediscovering his 2019 form. The issue here is that OAK is striking out at just under a 20% rate against LHPs so far in 2021.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilson Ramos, Akil Baddoo
GPP Note: The Tigers’ bats should come down to earth against RHPs soon.
OAK 5-star plays: Jed Lowrie
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: The game is full of one-offs and mini-stacks for me because of the 8.5 total (I think it’s too high).
Cleveland Indians (-153) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Indians – Shane Bieber
Reds – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We should see plenty of ownership between these pitchers, especially on Bieber. Having a 7.5 game total for a game taking place at Great American Ballpark is really saying something. Bieber has 12, 12, and 11 strikeouts in his 3 starts to begin his Cy-Young defense. Miley has allowed just 5 hits in his 11 innings so far this season and he is yet to allow a run.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Jordan Luplow
GPP Note: One-off HR hunting with Indians’ bats.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: No desire to attack Bieber.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-121) @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Trevor Bauer
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Talk about a stellar pitching match-up, I am really shocked to see this with a 7.5 total (the same as the CLE-CIN game). I would think there is a good chance this creeps to a 7 total by the time the first pitch is thrown. Snell struggled in his last start and wasn’t able to make it out of the first inning but I bet he’s pumped up to face the Dodgers again after being yanked by Cash in the World Series when he was absolutely dominant. Bauer is defending his Cy-Young award extremely well so far as he is racking up the strikeouts.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Justin Turner
GPP Note: The Dodgers are always in play for me but this game is more of a mini-stack attack.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Machado is 10 for 17 with 4 HRs against Bauer.
New York Mets (-172) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Mets – Marcus Stroman
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Rundown:
Today’s game has opened with a total of 10.5. We get to see a normal Coors total as we don’t have to watch deGrom dominate the Rockies again. Stroman has been dominant to begin his 2021 but this is a tough spot to pitch (duh, Eric!). Senzatela was dominant at home against Arizona but he’s been lit up by the Dodgers so far. This Mets offense should finish the season closer to the Dodgers numbers than the Diamondbacks (no, I am not saying the Mets are elite).
NYM 5-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Mets bats should be fairly popular against Senzatela.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: It’s Coors but I really don’t like the Rockies’ current lineup construction.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees: We have seen the Yankees fall flat multiple times this season as a highly owned stack. At some point, people are going to start jumping off and that’s the point that we want to double down. Sign me up for being overweight on the Yankees’ bats against Yarbrough.
- Washington Nationals: As a true baseball fan it hurts watching this version of Bumgarner pitch every 5 days, with the Diamondbacks. I will be attacking him multiple ways as WAS has BvP, LHP mashers, and just flat-out studs in the lineup.
- Boston Red Sox: This spot is kind of up in the air as I think TOR could be the team that gets it done in this range but I will go with the Red Sox against an LHP. We know how elite JD Martinez is and when you add in Kike, Bogaerts, Renfroe, Vazquez, and even Devers you get a lineup that can do a ton of damage quickly against LHPs.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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