Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/17:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Jacob deGrom
- Sandy Alcantara
- Huascar Ynoa
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Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox (-120)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I normally would be very interested in offense here but the weather is going to be extremely cold. Cold weather plays into the hands of pitching as any kind of velocity eats up hands and bats. I will still have some exposure to the bats as I think there are some plus plays on each side.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Pivetta has struggled with RHBs so far this season but traditionally it’s been the LHBs.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Devers is raking right now at the plate.
Houston Astros (-135) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Astros – Zack Greinke
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Flexen revived his career in the KBO last season (I wrote about him plenty last year). He gets a plus match-up as I believe Houston is going to continue to be with the group of guys that they put on the IL for COVID reasons. He has flashed some reverse splits in the majors but he’s been pretty even so far to begin this season (just 10 innings). Greinke was beaten up by DET in his last start and while SEA isn’t very good, they have a few guys that can do damage at the top of the lineup.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Just looking at mini-stacks while the main bats of HOU are on the IL.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: If you read this and my notes on site all season, you are going to find me picking on Greinke.
San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins (-125)
Pitchers:
Giants – Aaron Sanchez
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a pretty low total of 7.5. Both of these SPs have been really solid to begin the season but I believe in Alcantara more than Sanchez at this point. Sanchez is a vet arm who has flashed strong stuff in his career but he’s never been overly consistent. Alcantara seems to be ascending and might turn into the ace of this Marlins staff (even when Sixto is in the majors full-time). This park is one of the top pitcher’s parks in all of baseball.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy La Stella, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: No desire to pick on Alcantara with a weaker Giants lineup.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Brian Anderson
GPP Note: Mini-stacks at the top of the lineup, if anything at all.
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Twins – Matt Shoemaker
Angels – Jose Quintana
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Friday night’s game is still going on as the Angels are currently up 10-3. I expect this game to be a better contest than Friday night’s action. Quintana has been knocked around to begin the 2021 season and this Twins team can hit LHPs for power, especially if Buxton returns to the lineup. Shoemaker is an arm that flashes plus stuff and then he hits a wall in the 5th or 6th innings. If he is able to keep Trout and Ohtani in the park, he has a shot to be decent.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: I hate that I am a Twins fan because I can’t tell what is me being a homer and what is me truly believing they are going to smash. This game feels like they are truly going to smash!
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: ALWAYS mini-stack Trout and Ohtani.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (-140)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Trevor Cahill
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Every day there are games that I just don’t like and this is one of them. I don’t think either SP is worth rostering but I don’t really think either offense is in a smash spot (either because the pitchers are just good enough or the offenses are just bad enough). If Yelich returns for the Brewers, then I can see a MIL stack making sense for GPPs. Mainly just a game for one-offs as we dig into individual match-ups.
PIT 5-star plays: Adam Frazier
4-star plays: Erik Gonzalez, Jacob Stallings
GPP Note: Not as big on PIT today as I was Saturday night.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Travis Shaw, Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: This MIL offense should get a chance to do some damage. They really need Yelich back in the lineup.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers (-135)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Dunning has been pretty strong for TEX so far as he was basically the main piece to the Lance Lynn trade. The issue is that they have scheduled him as the “opener” in the first two games and allowed him to go 70 and 71 pitches. With how he has pitched, I have to assume they will allow him to push to 80 pitches+ at some point.
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Mostly looking at one-offs from BALT.
TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo
4-star plays: Nate Lowe, David Dahl
GPP Note: LHBs have knocked Kremer around to begin 2021.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals – Game 1
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Steven Matz
Royals – Mike Minor
Rundown:
Waiting for Vegas to update the information as this is now a 7-inning game due to the doubleheader.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Imagine if this TOR lineup was completely healthy!
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Hanser Alberto
GPP Note: Interesting spot to use Ray AND KC bats in different lineups.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals – Game 2
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Tommy Milone
Royals – Ervin Santana
Rundown:
Waiting for Vegas to update the information as this is now a 7-inning game due to the doubleheader.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Bo Bichette
GPP Note: This offense could explode any day.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Matz is a tougher SP than Ray in my opinion but the Royals bats can hit LHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays (-115) @ New York Yankees
Pitchers:
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this game move to a 7.5 total as the night goes on. Glasnow has been absolutely dominant to begin the 2021 season while his teammates have been pretty bad on the offensive side. Montgomery always intrigues me because he flashes upside and he’s generally overlooked by the field.
TBR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: This could be my sneaky stack of the slate.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Only going to get one-offs or mini-stacks as Glasnow is just spectacular this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Kwang-Hyun Kim
Phillies – Matt Moore
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Kim was really impressive in 2020 as he made his debut in America. He’s been on the IL so this will be his 2021 debut. I don’t know how many pitches to expect from him just yet (this is my first look article). Moore is an arm but not one that I fear when using hitters. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt should end up being one of my favorite combinations on the slate.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina
GPP Note: Look for a bounceback game from the Cardinals on Saturday.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Just looking at one-offs from PHI.
Atlanta Braves (-118) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Braves – Huascar Ynoa
Cubs – Trevor Williams
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. What that total tells me is that the wind is probably going to be blowing in while probably being somewhat colder in the midwest (it’s cool here in WI). Huascar Ynoa has really impressed me to begin the season as he’s flashing strong swing and miss stuff, which will come into play against a Cubs team struggling to put up runs. Trevor Williams should struggle a bit against this dangerous Braves offense.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: I think Acuna is now the hottest hitter in baseball.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez
GPP Note: Mini-stacks for me unless the wind is blowing in.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Luke Weaver
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Friday night’s game played to a 1-0 final thanks to a walk-off HR by Kyle Schwarber. I expect there to be more runs in this game (duh, hot take there). Weaver has looked pretty strong against a hot Reds squad in his last start. I think the Nationals wake up at some point because the top half of this lineup is extremely potent.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Josh VanMeter
GPP Note: Mini-stack for me as I don’t think Fedde is all that good but ARI isn’t very good either.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Josh Harrison
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Interesting team to stack at the top of the order.
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Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics (-135)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Casey Mize
Athletics – Cole Irvin
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 9. I want to be honest, I don’t understand why this game has opened with a total of 9. Mize has looked excellent in his first two starts and he’s an upper-tier pitching prospect in baseball. While Irvin isn’t very good, the Tigers’ bats aren’t very strong against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilson Ramos, Nico Goodrum
GPP Note: Detroit has struggled more against LHPs than RHPs so far this season.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: The game is full of one-offs and mini-stacks for me because of the 9 total (I think it’s too high).
Cleveland Indians @ Cincinnati Reds (-130)
Pitchers:
Indians – Triston McKenzie
Reds – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Gray is making his 2021 debut after dealing with back issues to begin the season. The initial report is that he isn’t going to be held to a strict pitch count so that makes him more intriguing to me. We know that the Indians can struggle to score runs as they were just shut down by Hoffman on Friday. Triston McKenzie is a high upside, young arm, who is going to have some impressive games coupled with some bad games.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Not interested in using the Indians at this point.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: Attack McKenzie with the LHBs in the CIN lineup.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This is going to be a great game to watch on TV. I am not sure I will be targeting it for DFS purposes as both offenses are capable of hitting elite pitching but also these elite pitchers are capable of dominating elite offenses. Darvish has had some strong success against the Dodgers roster while Kershaw has been decent against this version of San Diego.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Justin Turner
GPP Note: The Dodgers are always in play for me but this game is more of a mini-stack attack.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr
GPP Note: Tatis’ return makes this SD lineup so much more dangerous.
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies – Game 1
Pitchers:
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Rockies – Chi Chi Gonzalez
Rundown:
Waiting for the Vegas information for this doubleheader.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Mets bats should be fairly popular against Gonzalez.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: No desire to attack deGrom.
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies – Game 2
Pitchers:
Mets – Joey Lucchesi
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
Waiting for the Vegas information for this doubleheader.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Marquez is a guy that I don’t like to fully stack against but mini-stacks are always a good choice in Coors.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story
4-star plays: Garrett Hampson, CJ Cron
GPP Note: This could be a game for the Rockies bats to wake up completely.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Minnesota Twins: So is this me being a homer or is this me trying to attack the best spot on the slate? The Twins can do damage to LHPs, especially if they are fully healthy. Quintana has NOT looked good at all this season so we should be attacking him when we can. Cruz-Donaldson has been known to destroy baseballs thrown by guys using their left hand!
- Texas Rangers: Raise your hand if you thought that I would EVER list the Rangers as a top 3 stack on the main slate this season! I am a bit shocked at this point but Kremer has struggled this season, mainly with LHBs. The Rangers happen to have a handful of LHBs that can do some serious damage to baseballs.
- Los Angeles Dodgers: This match-up sucks but the slate isn’t loaded with dangerous offenses. I think that the field will be higher on the Padres for runs in this game because they think that Kershaw is on the downhill side of his career (he might be but he’s still spectacular). I just think the Dodgers lineup is more dangerous top-to-bottom.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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