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(FREE!) DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Pitching Advice, and Stack Strategy for FanDuel and DraftKings – Apr. 15th, 2021

Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/15:

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the  MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.

  • Lance Lynn
  • Patrick Corbin
  • Jacob deGrom

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Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins (-153)

Pitchers:

Red Sox – Garrett Richards

Twins – Michael Pineda

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8.5. Richards is getting hit hard by everybody he faces and I have a feeling it’s not long before he’s removed from the rotation. Pineda induces weak contact as he doesn’t have the same strikeout stuff that he had a couple of seasons ago. Interested in seeing what the weather is like as it’s been extremely cold in MIN this week.

BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez

4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts

GPP Note: Red Sox bats have been rolling so we should be getting a stack or two built.

MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton

4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco

GPP Note: Donaldson’s return helps this lineup a TON.


San Diego Padres (-177) @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Pitchers:

Padres – Chris Paddack

Pirates – Mitch Keller

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8. We get two pitchers that have had a ton of hype but just haven’t been able to translate it at the MLB level. Keller is coming off of very strong performance but that was against the punchless Cubs. He probably gets pushed to 85-ish pitches as he has thrown 77 and 80 in his first two starts. Paddack is everybody’s darling from a couple of seasons ago but I seriously think he’s just not a starting pitcher at the MLB level without a third pitch.

SDP 5-star plays: Trent Grisham

4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Tommy Pham

GPP Note: The Padres offense has to wake up at some point.

PIT 5-star plays: Adam Frazier

4-star plays: Colin Moran, Bryan Reynolds

GPP Note: I think a PIT stack could be sneaky, especially the guys from the left side of the plate.

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Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles (-111) – Game 1

Pitchers:

Mariners – Marco Gonzales

Orioles – Bruce Zimmermann

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 9. Remember that doubleheaders are 7 inning games now. Both teams could flip flop SPs as teams often do when they have doubleheaders come up after a rainout the previous day. We will need to pay attention as the morning goes on as to which guy will throw which game.

SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger

4-star plays: Ty France

GPP Note: Just one-offs against an LHP.

BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini

4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle

GPP Note: Mostly looking at one-offs or mini-stacks based on how the lineup goes.

Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles – Game 2

Pitchers:

Mariners – Justin Dunn

Orioles – Matt Harvey

Rundown:

Waiting on verification that the above guys are going to start. I definitely see this game going over that total but I wouldn’t be shocked by it going under because of the weak offenses. We get two SPs that we can attack with stacks as they both allow plenty of baserunners. I would rather stack the Orioles if I had to choose one or the other but the Mariners could be sneaky here.

SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Jose Marmolejos

4-star plays: Taylor Trammell, Ty France

GPP Note: SEA isn’t very good but this might be a spot where they show a little bit. Probably better as a mini-stack but why not have a share or two of a full-stack in a large field GPP.

BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins

4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, DJ Stewart

GPP Note: Dunn hasn’t been bad from an avg against standpoint but he walks so many batters that big innings can happen very quickly.

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals

Pitchers:

Blue Jays –

Royals – Jakob Junis

Rundown:

Waiting for Vegas information and the Toronto SP announcement.

TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr

4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Cavan Biggio

GPP Note: Imagine if this TOR lineup was completely healthy!

KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez

4-star plays: Whit Merrifield

GPP Note: 


Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays (-172)

Pitchers:

Rangers – Jordan Lyles

Rays – Rich Hill

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Both of these SPs have flashed bad outings and very strong outings so far this season. I don’t really trust either one but based on recent trends, I would say that Lyles is in a better spot. The TB offense has been scuffling outside of the top two guys in the lineup. Hill should be the better option but the TEX bats have awoken the last couple games in this series.

TEX 5-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa

4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Nick Solak

GPP Note: Mostly one-offs but this stack has paid off the last 2 days.

TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows

4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe

GPP Note: This could be my sneaky stack of the slate.


Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets (-216)

Pitchers:

Phillies – Zach Eflin

Mets – Jacob deGrom

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 7. We should enjoy a great pitcher’s duel in this game as the Mets offense seems to take the night off when deGrom pitches and the opposing offenses are generally forced to take the night off. Eflin was great in his first start and then struggled in start #2. He has allowed an HR in both starts this season.

PHI 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Andrew Knapp

GPP Note: deGrom is the best pitcher in the game, no desire to attack him.

NYM 5-star plays: Brandon Nimmo

4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso

GPP Note: Decent career ISO numbers against Eflin.


Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (-177)

Pitchers:

Marlins – Trevor Rogers

Braves – Ian Anderson

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Both Anderson and Rogers have flashed great upside while Rogers has been better this season so far. Anderson has given up 3 HRs through 2 starts this season and that could come into play here with how well the Marlins are swinging it. Rogers has 16 Ks through 10 innings so far this season. He did struggle with ATL in 2020 but he looks like he’s grown quite a bit since last season.

MIA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jon Berti, Jazz Chisholm Jr

GPP Note: I want to believe that Anderson is going to have a great outing but the Marlins bats have exploded the last 2 games.

ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr

4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies

GPP Note: I think Acuna is now the hottest hitter in baseball.


Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (-160)

Pitchers:

Diamondbacks – Merrill Kelly

Nationals – Patrick Corbin

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 9. Both of these SPs have struggled a bit to begin the 2021 season but I believe that Corbin is in for a bounceback after he was sidelined on the COVID list. He should be in a better spot here as the D’Backs offense is pretty lackluster, especially without Walker and Marte.

ARI 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Nick Ahmed, Carson Kelly

GPP Note: I won’t be stacking ARI against Corbin.

WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto

4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Josh Bell

GPP Note: Interesting team to stack at the top of the order.

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Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics (-157)

Pitchers:

Tigers – Tarik Skubal

Athletics – Sean Manaea

Rundown:

This game has opened up with a total of 8.5. I believe that Skubal has a very bright future at the MLB level but he might not be ready just yet. Oakland hasn’t been great to begin the season but the A’s have a few bats that have hit LHPs very well to begin the 2021 season. Manea interests me quite a bit but the Tigers just got done smacking around HOU pitchers. Detroit is striking out at a 30% rate against LHPs so far this season.

DET 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Wilson Ramos, Robbie Grossman

GPP Note: Detroit put up runs in HOU but this park is much bigger so going to just be one-offs for me.

OAK 5-star plays: Jed Lowrie

4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman

GPP Note: Stack might go overlooked on the main slate with how bad OAK has been overall this season.


Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox (-135)

Pitchers:

Indians – Aaron Civale

White Sox – Lance Lynn

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Well as I write this article, Carlos Rodon completed a no-hitter on Wednesday night in this game. He hit Roberto Perez in the 9th on an 0-2 pitch (in the foot) to break up the perfect game. I expect this game to be very low scoring again with the White Sox being the team that could put up a few runs.

CLE 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jose Ramirez

GPP Note: Not interested in using the Indians at this point.

CHW 5-star plays: Yermin Mercedes

4-star plays: Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada

GPP Note: Civale has been strong to start the season so I will be looking at mini-stacks of the White Sox.


Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-300)

Pitchers:

Rockies – Austin Gomber

Dodgers – Julio Urias

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8. Right back on the Dodgers again as we should be EVERY night this season. It’s crazy to see Urias as a -300 favorite but I love seeing it. I was going to write about how it’s great to see Dave Roberts trust his young arms and let them pitch but he just yanked Dustin May in the 5th inning, up 3-1.

COL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon

GPP Note: I won’t be attacking Urias much at all, maybe with a one-off.

LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Justin Turner

4-star plays: Chris Taylor, AJ Pollock

GPP Note: The Dodgers will always be a top stack, no matter who the opposing SP is for me.


Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers: We are always on the Dodgers. Gomber walked 7 Dodgers in 3 innings during his first start of the season and then walked 4 more guys in his second start. He’s not going to survive against the Dodgers allowing that many runners. Big innings happen when you walk guys. I feel like I’ve said that before.
  2. Washington Nationals: Heading back home to face ARI should keep the offense humming as they picked up a W on Wednesday against St Louis. I am going to enjoy stacking the top half of this lineup plus a guy like Harrison, who has been rolling.
  3. Oakland Athletics: This is a spot that COULD be overlooked on this slate. Oakland hasn’t been destroying the ball as a team but I think that could change with their return home. You could convince me that TOR and/or KC (depending on who TOR starts at pitcher) should be in this spot.

MLB Dinger of the Day – Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles

 

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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