Welcome everyone to the Complete NASCAR DFS Preview for DraftKings and FanDuel: Talladega. For this edition, we will take a quick look at the upcoming Cup and Xfinity Series races at Talladega. This article is brought to you by DFSArmy.com and written by Ryan Larkin. You can catch up with Ryan on Twitter or in the DFSA VIP slack @Larkin8
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Oct 4, 2020; Lincoln, Alabama, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Matt DiBenedetto (21) NASCAR Cup Series driver William Byron (24) and NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin (11) race down the front stretch for the finish line as NASCAR Cup Series driver Brad Keselowski (2) wrecks behind them during the Yellawood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Talladega Superspedway
This weekend the Cup and Xfinity Series teams head to Talladega Superspeedway. At 2.66 miles Talladega is the largest oval on the NASCAR schedule. The cars run in big packs and run 3, 4, and even 5 wide throughout the race. The draft is a major factor that keeps all the cars close to each other. Due to the cars all running near each other when something goes wrong it often results in massive wrecks. These massive wrecks are referred to as “The Big One” and will eliminate quite a few cars from the race whenever one happens. This is the most important aspect of this race for DFS but also the most impossible to predict. You just never know who may be involved in one. When making lineups, you will need to use past history to make educated guesses for who might be more likely to avoid these wrecks. Teamwork is a massive factor for this race. Teams from the same organization and even the same manufacturer will work together to beat the competition. Team and manufacturer stacks are in play as a result.
Cup DFS Outlook
with 188 laps and the ability for lead to change numerous times, the need for dominators is nearly non-existent. Obviously, if someone like Denny Hamlin leads 40 laps and wins you will need him in your lineup but overall you don’t need to focus on a particular driver/s like last week at Richmond. The key to these races is avoiding the big wrecks. If we get a high DNF race with lots of carnage then the back marker cars that can stay out of trouble will score really well. On DraftKings, they can be optimal and are a massive part of the strategy. You will likely want 2-3 of these drivers and then add in other top drivers who can finish top 5. The place differential points coupled with a mid pack finish score really well. On FanDuel, these back markers can still score really well but the strategy is a bit different. You will more than likely still want to play top drivers and teams. The half-point place diff on FD doesn’t score enough for these drivers to be optimal without top 15 or better finishes. The drivers who finish top 7 or 8 usually end up on it. Not to say one won’t end up on the optimal but it is less likely. You should really focus on the Research Station this week and pay close attention to past history and trends. Guys like Corey Lajoie and Ryan Newman always seem to find their way onto optimal with top 10 finishes on superspeedways.
Quick Facts
Date: April 25th
Race: Sunday 2:00 pm ET.
Laps: 188 Stages: 60/120/188
Drivers: 40
Defending Champion: Denny Hamlin
AVG. # of Cautions: 8 excluding stage breaks
AVG DNF’s: 13 per race
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Xfinity DFS Outlook
Xfinity is similar to Cup in the sense that we do see double-digit DNF rates and punt plays often score well. The difference is usually the way the race unfolds and who gets involved in the wrecks. There are usually 3 or 4 groups of teams that run together during the race. The top 15 quality cars usually run together. Then we see a group of the mid pack cars run a few seconds behind them and then finally a group or two of the back of the pack cars riding around. This usually results in smaller big crashes with 4-6 cars involved. Towards the end of the race, things usually pack up more with a late caution which can result in a bigger wreck. Overall, I am more interested in focusing on team stacks and playing top teams here at Dega. Kaulig Racing has been able to control these races lately and score multiple wins. JRM can do the same. It wouldn’t surprise me to see 2-3 team cars finish inside the top 5 and depend on their place differential points all end up on or near the optimal. I like playing teammates that start together 8th-14th range. Getting a few different variations of each combination with some back markers who can put together some big place differential.
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Quick Facts
Date: April 24th
Race: Saturday 4:00 pm ET.
Laps: 113 Stages: 25/50/113
Drivers: 40
Defending Champion: Justin Haley
AVG. # of Cautions: 5 excluding stage breaks
AVG DNF’s: 11 per race
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NASCAR Xfinity Series Top Play
Ryan Vargas/Colby Howard: Last year here these two managed to get involved in accidents and failed to finish. This is completely against the JD Motorsports idea of Superspeedway racing. Normally, this team rides in the back and lets the rest of the drivers screw up. Once there is some carnage and a bunch of teams are out of the race they work together to score top 20 and even top 15 finishes. I expect that to be the case this week. Given that Vargas starts 39th and Howard 37, both will offer huge place differential upside and are relatively safe plays floor wise.
This will conclude this edition of NASCAR Cup Series Preview. If you would like to reach out and talk NASCAR Follow me on Twitter @Larkin8 or of course Become a VIP member and join me as well as our other DFS Army NASCAR contributors (Brady Miller and Taco) in the NASCAR coaching channels.