Welcome everyone to the NASCAR Cup Series DFS Preview. For this edition, we will take a quick look at the second race of the year on the Daytona Road Course. This article is brought to you by DFSArmy.com and written by Ryan Larkin. You can catch up with Ryan on Twitter or in the DFSA VIP slack @Larkin8
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Daytona Road Course
The Cup Series hangs out in Daytona for yet another week. This time they will tackle the road course layout with a full 40 car field. The majority of top teams competed on this layout just last week in the Busch Clash. The only difference from this race is the addition of turtles to the backstretch chicane to eliminate drivers from cutting the corners and throwing dirt onto the track. This race will likely see some strategy play out before the end of stage 1 that will shake the field up. It should work itself back out with the top drivers starting to take back over early on in the final stage. To give you an idea, Chase Elliott won stage 1, finished 7th in stage 2, and took over at the start of the final stage. Minus a couple of wrecks or mechanical issues, this race will play out fairly straightforward. Using Last year’s race and the Busch Clash as a reference is highly recommended.
Nov 8, 2020; Avondale, Arizona, USA; NASCAR driver Martin Truex Jr (19) during the NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Quick Race Facts
Date: February 21st
3:00pm/et, Sunday, February 21
Green flag: 3:20pm/et
(Stage: 16/34/70 laps = 252.7 miles)
TV: FOX
AVG. # of Cautions: 2 (1 for rain) (Excluding Stage Breaks)
AVG. # of DNF’s: 4
Defending Champion: Chase Elliott
DFS Outlook
Dominators
This race feels like it will be Chase Elliott early and often. He starts on the pole and should be the favorite to win stage one. I expect that he will stay out to win stage one while many drivers outside the top 10 will pit to set up track position for stage two. This will greatly shake up the running order and likely see Chase restart 20th-25th. This will give us a driver or two who will lead stage two and score dominator points. They will likely hurt their chances in the long run though with strategy again shaking up the field for the start of the final stage. I believe Truex is the main threat to Elliott and can match him straight up for speed. If he gets out front he can be the top dominator. Because of the low number of laps, you will want no more than one dominator in lineups
Lineup Construction
Because of the lack of impact dominators will have, this week will be all about place differential. There are about 10-12 place differential plays that offer amazing upside and should see tons of attention. Starting with the likes of Briscoe and Kurt Busch and ending with the likes of Buescher, Newman, and Suarez, there are a ton of great options for lineup building. Finding a couple of low owned plays will be key to separate lineups from the field as I expect most people will be on the main group of place differential drivers. AJ Allmendinger will be massively owned and Alex Bowman shouldn’t be too far behind him. These are drivers you are almost forced to go heavy on. Leaving salary on the table is a good idea. Most DFS players struggle with doing this as they feel they need to use that salary up. There are lineups where leaving $2,000 plus on the table makes a lot of sense. Don’t be afraid to do so.
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Top Plays
Alex Bowman: I believe Bowman is the best play of the race. AJ will see so much attention that Bowman should end up lower owned than he should be. He has been fantastic on road courses, like all HMS cars, and I think he is a top 10 driver with top 5 upside. He can put up a monster score and I expect he will be in line for the optimal this week.
Martin Truex Jr.: Truex is my pick for the win again this week. He has been blazing fast here in the two races and honestly, bad luck or variance or whatever you want to call it, has kept him out of victory lane. He offers place differential points that Chase doesn’t and that is really the difference for me between the two. Truex had 16 fast laps here last year and I believe he replicates that again. He can match Chase in that category and jump him score-wise with the place diff.
Willy B: William Byron rolls off 22nd this race which means he won’t see as much attention as the drivers starting further back. This is good for us. He has finished top 10 in 3 straight road course races and I expect he does so again this week. I am hoping his ownership is as low as possible because I will be going heavy on him this week
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Check out some of our other DFS Army NASCAR content for the 2021 season!!!
NASCAR Cup Series Season Preview
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2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series Season Preview
DFS Army Strategy Series – NASCAR Scoring Fanduel vs Draftkings
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