Trust The Process DFS NBA – December 26th, 2020 FanDuel and DraftKings

The DFS NBA “Trust The Process” article is an in-depth look at the DFS Army NBA Research Station to help find plays on today’s 9-game slate! The goal is to help make a solidified process everyone can follow to crush cash games and tournaments alike. You can find me on Twitter @AUFan30 or in Slack throughout most of the day if you have any questions!

Point Guards

New to the RS this season will be the removal of the And1 grading metric. Instead, we will use the DFSA Grades. The DFSA Grades are very similar to what the And1 used to be but puts them in a much easier to read /100 grading system. DFS Grades factors in several different columns, including aDVP, Ceiling, Floor, USG%, etc. I like to keep track of the Top 5 players from each position. Take note of these guys and see if they stay high on the list of the other metrics we will look at.

Next, we will sort by 6X% for cash games. When we do this, we see Coby White rise to the top of the list. We also see Markelle Fultz fly up on this list, and that is largely due to the role/minutes he will get at this price. We also see LaMelo and Killian fall off the list here making them pay down GPP options on this slate, especially with their minutes seemingly in question. The matchup appears to be good for them, but we may go to someone like Terry Rozier over Ball here.

For GPP’s we will sort by 7X%. 7X is the desired value we want to see from a player compared to his salary. If a player hits over 7X, he has a much better chance of being optimal than those that do not. Doing this, we see Coby White stay on the top of the list. The list remains the same as the 6X players as well.

We will then sort by FP/Min. The FP/Min column is very useful in telling us who produces when they are on the court. Doing this, we see the studs enter the list, as expected when sorting by this kind of column. However, we note that Chris Paul makes the list with point guards who will cost us $2K more to roster on this slate. Let’s note that.

The next step is to sort by USG%. If we’re looking for what studs to build around, we want a guy who is heavily involved in his offense. Notice the substantial difference in USG Westbrook has over the others in this list. We also see Coby White make the Top 5 USG list which furthers my love for him on this slate. It’s important to note he is $$K cheaper than Westbrook and still makes this list.

When we have what guys we want to target selected, we then want to look at two columns in particular: Who’s Hot? and Clock Watch. These two columns are very important for GPP plays in particular. Every player goes through a cold stretch as well as hot streaks. One thing we really need to note here is the fact that these are the first games of the season, so we will revisit these sections once we get some games and data to populate this section. Once we get a few weeks worth of data, this section will be very telling of what players are in great GPP spots. Until then, this area is a lot more game flow and feel oriented.

Finally, for guards, in particular, we look for guys in Pace Up matchups. This leads to more transition opportunities as well as steal opportunities. For cash games, we don’t necessarily worry too much about the Pace, but it is a very good metric for GPP guards. For guards, we sort by Descending under Pace (+/-).

Shooting Guards and Small Forwards

SG’s and SF’s follow the exact same process as the PG’s do.

Power Forwards

For Power Forwards, we will follow the exact same process for these guys, however, we will change one thing. For PF’s, we want a slow-paced matchup. This is due to PF’s getting more steal and block opportunities, as well as rebound opportunities from set offenses. To find these guys, we will go to Pace of Play and sort Pace (+/-) by Ascending order. Again, take note of any PF’s noticed from the other metrics we’ve already looked at.

Centers

Centers follow the exact same process as PF’s.

Vegas

We will then want to gather the top 3 teams to target based on Vegas. A lot of money moves through Vegas, and they are usually very spot on with how scoring will go. When we go to the Vegas section and sort by Descending, we see Washington, Orlando, Utah, and Minnesota pop on the list. This tells us the studs in particular from these games should see higher scoring than usual tonight, so guys like Russell Westbrook, Bradley Beal, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic, Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, D’Angelo Russell, and Karl-Anthony Towns all appear to be in great spots per Vegas.

Tier List

You will want to make a Tier List of the players you’ve found based on your research. Treat this list as an “in case they’re scratched” list. I would always recommend making the highest priced guy the first on your list, therefore if he is scratched then you have nothing to worry about salary-wise with your edits in case he is scratched just before lock. What I do is I take note of the guys that have appeared in every section I’ve detailed above, and the guys that show up the most in those sections go to the top of my list. I adore the Top 3 from each position in the DS and love the 4th and 5th guys. I do not exclude anyone ever from the DS, doing the adore/love method just pushes my guys into more lineups. Therefore, in total, I end up adoring 3 PG’s, 3 SG’s, 3 SF’s, 3 PF’s, and 3 C’s. Do not adore too many players!

Minutes

For cash games, I do make a rule on the RS to include only players who will play over 24 minutes. With the new RS this season, this section will automatically update any time anyone is ruled out, or any other news comes out impacting players. To add this setting, simply select the down arrow under EDIT Mins under the TODAYS – Projections tab, hover over Number Filters, select Custom Filter.

We will then select “Is greater than or equal to” from the drop-down box and 24 in the input box.

Domination Station Fpts/$ and Ownership %

Once we have our list of guys to target, we want to check out who is popping on the DS. The first section we want to pull up is the Fpts/$. Players hitting value is crucial to taking down any cash contest or tourney and we want to be sure we’re getting the best bang for our buck. We do this by sorting by Fpts/$.

We also want to check out projected ownerships. This is very useful when trying to decide what value to play, or deciding what studs to fade in tournaments. This can also help bring a player to your attention you may not have noticed in the Research Station! The industry is usually very spot on about what players are in good spots, so this ownership tab is very important to watch.

Top Plays for Today!!

These are my personal Top 3 Plays that I believe will most likely be on the optimal lineup at each position based on the RS numbers. These will likely change when news comes out closer to lock, so make sure you’re in the #nba-breaking-news and #nba-coaches-notes channels and turn notifications on! (Salaries sorted by FD/DK)

PG

1. Coby White $6,000 (FanDuel only!!)
2. George Hill $3,400 (DraftKings only!!)
3. Russell Westbrook $10,000/$10,300
4. Markelle Fultz $5,900/$6,000

SG

1. James Harden $11,000/$10,900
2. Donovan Mitchell $7,700/$8,400
3. Devin Booker $7,900 (This is a steal on FanDuel. Hate his price on DraftKings.)
4. Lonnie Walker IV $4,700 (DraftKings only!!)

SF

1. Danuel House $3,700 (FanDuel only!!)
2. Royce O’Neale $3,600 (DraftKings only!!)
3. Keldon Johnson $4,600/$5,000
4. OG Anunoby $5,200/$5,400

PF

1. Christian Wood $6,700 (FanDuel only!!)
2. Al Horford $6,100 (DraftKings only!!)
3. Domontas Sabonis $8,500/$8,500
4. Blake Griffin $6,600/$7,100

C

1. Christian Wood $5,900 (DraftKings only!!)
2. Al Horford $6,100 (FanDuel only!!)
3. Wendell Carter Jr. $4,900/$5,100
4. Andre Drummond $8,400/$9,200

 

Thank you for reading and as mentioned before, be sure to follow my Twitter @AUFan30 or catch me in Slack with any questions you may have! Be sure to be watching the breaking news channel as always to make sure you don’t miss any exciting value plays and be sure your players are good to go! If you want access to my full player pool then go on over to https://wp.dfsarmy.com/ref/99/ and use code AU30 for 20% off your monthly VIP or SBA membership!