White flag is in the air and the folks at DFSArmy are going to end STRONG. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Nov 12, 2017; Avondale, AZ, USA; Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series driver Brad Keselowski (2) races during the Can-Am 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Top Plays
Chase Elliott – Everyone is talking about Joey and Brad, and there dominance in this package and tire combination, but I think Chase is going over looked here. He has been top three on short tracks all year, and led a major chunk of the Phoenix race in the spring. This team has all the momentum in the world, and I suspect Chase builds a huge lead and dominates the majority of stage one before moving on to compete for a win. I don’t anticipate his ownership to be too over the top, and I think he is a smart GPP play.
Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch is nothing short of spectacular at Phoenix, boasting an unbelivable 5 straight top three runs. While he has regressed in 2020, the 18 teams short track efforts have been strong. Kyle Busch has nothing to lose, and while he is smart enough to yield to championship contenders, he will not give up an oppurtunity to get his second win of the 2020 season. Busch stands to go overlooked here, and I suspect we can get some cheap leverage.
Brad Keselowski – Ever since his dominating performance at Richmond and New Hampshire – two tracks that feature some very strong predictive metrics for Phoenix – we have had our eyes on Brad K as a potential 2020 champion. He has been a factor in every single race that feature this tire combination, and I just dont see a way he doesnt find the lead and compete for a win. Everybody will be on Brad K, but I am kind of okay with eating the chalk.
Kevin Harvick – You just can’t talk about Phoenix without talking about Harvick. I am confident he will do everything in his power to win this race, even though he is not eligible for a title. His Phoneix stats, as well as his 2020 short track stats, are class of the field, and the 11th place starting spot gives us some valuable place differential.
Fades
Josh Bilicki
Timmy Hill
Brennan Poole
Quin Houff
James Davison
Value
Chris Buescher – A great place differential here. Buescher has finished top 20 four races in a row, and I dont see any reason why he wouldn’t countinue that streak.
William Byron – This barely counts as value at $8400, but that 25th starting spot is too sweet to pass up. Byrons short track program has been improving, and he should have no problem competing for a top ten in Chad Knaus’ last race.
Michael McDowell – Another solid place differential play. McDowell starts 29th, and well his 2020 has been largely been dissapointing for him, Phoenix in the spring was a bright spot as he was live for a top 15. It’s a strong track for McDowell when he avoids trouble, a proportion that seems to have been tough for him in the past. Alas, I’ll unboard the risk for this potential GPP winner.
Cole Custer – I don’t know why Custer is priced down here, but I will take it. Custer has been pretty decent on short tracks in 2020 – and he was very good here in the spring, as he parked it in the top ten. The 15th place starting spot is concerning, but at this price he doesnt need to do much. I’ll load up on Cole here.
So there it is folks. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.