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(FREE!) NFL Fantasy FanDuel and DraftKings DFS Advice: The Positive Regression Five Pack Week 11

With so much fluff out there these days, let’s dive a little deeper when it comes to finding those wide receivers due some positive regression!  I will assume you know the best way to target WRs is usage, but there is a lot more to it than just targets, yards, and touchdowns. I want to introduce and discuss a few new stats to use to target your WR plays going into the this NFL week:    % Of Teams Air Yards, RACR and aDOT.

  • Let us start with the Air Yards. Air Yards are the distance the ball travels through the air on path to the WRs target. For example, if Mike Evans gets a 40-yard bomb thrown to him that he does not catch, he gets 40 Air Yards but zero actual yards.
  • Now, if Mike Evans only target was that 40-yard bomb, he would have a RACR of zero (RACR is Air Yards divided by Total Yards, so if he had 100 Air Yards and 90 real yards his RACR would be .90).  RACR to me is good for identifying due players, if you see someone with over 300 Air Yards in 3 weeks but only a .37 RACR, that should show you he is due and not producing up to his volume.
  • Finally, aDOT which stands for Average Depth Of Target. It is exactly what it sounds like, if someone were to see 3 targets that are 15, 10, and 5 yards down the field, he would have an aDOT of 10. Players with higher aDOTs have better big-play potential than those with lower ones and deep balls gather the most fantasy points.

Now that we have all that out of the way, it is time to identify some Positive Regression Candidates. 

Michael Thomas: Thomas has been seeing over 35% of the air yards and over 20% of the targets since his return and has only posted a .70 RACR in that time frame. Brees had only thrown for over 300 yards 2 times in his 8 full games this year, that partially is because of Thomas missing playing time but also because in the last 5 weeks Drew Brees is good for the 2nd lowest average depth of pass attempt on the slate. I think Winston is a boost to Michael Thomas’s ceiling and this man is waiting to erupt.

Adam Theilen: Theilen is still seeing almost 30% of the air yards and over 20% of the targets in the last 5 weeks despite the emergence of Justin Jefferson. Theilen projects top 6 in WR projections this week but is the only one of those top 6 coming in at sub 10% ownership. He is due with a RACR of .69 (nice) and with everyone taking the rushing attack for Minnesota against a Dallas team that is bad everywhere, I think Minnesota WRs, especially Theilen, are great pivots.

Nov 17, 2019; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars receiver DJ Chark Jr. (17) carries the ball to score a touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts in the first half at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

DJ Chark: In the last 5 weeks Chark only ranks behind Jerry Jeudy and DeVante Adams in air yards and is seeing just over 27% of his team’s targets in a game where they should be down and having to pass against a Steelers secondary that has struggled to stop WRs this year. He is also very due with only a .50 RACR and is way too cheap on FD at only $6200. He checks just about every box you want him to.

A few of these receivers are very cheap across the industry, but sometimes it pays to play one on Draftkings or Fanduel due to pricing discrepancies.  Find out more in our Clipping Coupons Series!  It’s FREE!

DeVante Parker: Parker is seeing just shy of 30% of the air yards and 25% of the targets the last 5 weeks for the Dolphins. He is the main target for Tua especially with Preston Williams being injured and just like Chark he is too cheap for his volume at only $6200. Posting only a .59 RACR in this time frame this is for sure a game he can put this volume he has been getting into an excellent fantasy performance.

Marquise Brown: Trust me, I am getting tired of writing about this man for him just to fail me. He is still seeing over 30% of the air yards the last 5 weeks and just shy of 20% of the targets and he’s in the best spot he has been in since I have been writing him up. For the rest of the Ravens being chalk and him coming in at just over 6% ownership, I am looking to him as a sharp move in my Ravens stacks.

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