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The Sway Bar: Top NASCAR Plays, Fades and Values for Kansas

Round three is underway and we are headed back to Kansas. Kansas represents one of the better 1.5 mile tracks on the circuit, with multiple grooves that allows good cars to be good. Track position isn’t shouldn’t be as important, as passing is usually not as tough as other 1.5 milers.

Oct 20, 2019; Kansas City, KS, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Chase Elliott (9) during the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports

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Top Plays

Denny Hamlin – All signs point to two time defending race winner Denny Hamlin this week. He led the most laps here in July and led the most laps at Vegas on this tire. 7th is an awkward starting spot, but that shouldn’t matter. I think Hamlin dominates this race.

Kyle Busch – Busch is out of the playoffs and straight trophy chasing now. I think this represents one of his best opportunities to realize a win in 2020, and that potential against a 20th place starting spot makes him a fantastic play. He ran 11th here in the summer and led 52 laps, and ran 6th at Vegas on this tire combination. I suspect Kyles floor, without trouble, is a top ten. That scores great against a $9900 price tag.

Aric Almirola – This price tag is just wrong. Almirola has led laps and finished well at multiple 1.5 mile tracks this year, including a 6th place finish at Kansas. Against a 16th place starting spit and a $8000 price tag he is almost a must play.

Chase Elliott – The Chevs have been on and off this year, but the one constant has been Chase. He has finished top 5 four of the last six trips to Kansas, and his 1.5 mile cars are better than ever. He starts pole position, and he should be able to hold it. This team has momentum, and I suspect this is his best chance to advance to straight to Homestead.

Fades

I think the following are bottom tier plays are this week

James Davison
JJ Yeley
Timmy Hill
Josh Bilicki
Joey Gase
Chad Finchum
Brennan Poole
Reed Sorenson
Quin Houff

Value Plays

Austin Dillon – Lets not forget how good AD was in the first round of the playoffs. He has fallen off as we met some tough tracks for him, but I suspect a return to that late year form here. He is priced to low for a driver with serious top ten upside.

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth has been miserable this year, I know. But Kansas is a good track for him and he managed to muster out a 17th place finish here in July. If he repeats that he will score well.

John H. Nemechek – JHN gets a lot out of his cars on 1.5 mile tracks, even though his cars tends to be pretty mediocre. He finished top 20 here in July and I think he can improve on that this weekend. At just $6100 and a 32nd starting spot he is hard to ignore this week.

Ryan Newman – People will be off Newman this week since he has been so bad lately. But do not lose sign of the fact he has finished top 17 in 62% of 1.5 mile starts this year. Kansas is traditionally a great track for Newman and I anticipate a good run here.

So there you have it. Make sure you check out the Cheat Sheet as well! Good luck and stay cashing.