Welcome fellow Degenerates! My name is Steve, a.k.a. Mutt18 (mutt_18 on Twitter) and I’m breaking ground on a brand new article this week that is a growing trend over here at DFS Army and SportsBet Army which is Player Props. For those of you not familiar with a Player Prop, basically, a sports betting website/bookie will give odds on how likely a player is going to achieve, in this case we’ll say, receiving yards, so they can put the odds at -112 that player X will get over or under 57.5 receiving yards, so if you bet the over, you think that player will score 58+ receiving yards and if you bet the under, you’re betting that they will have less. It can actually be very profitable as well as we can get on hot streaks like we did last week and win tons of $$$. First, we’ll take a look at what happened last week with my these picks, follow me fellow DeGens!
We were on a slightly bad luck streak as well, as we were 1 DeSean Jackson yard away from cashing, 1 Mecole Hardman reception from cashing, and who can forget Daniel Jones tripping over his own feet at the 10 yard line to cost us a +425 bet as well, all those combined justtttttttt prevented us from a massive week, but we’re still up 6.1 units!
Week 7: 11-6 +6.1 units
Total for Year: 29-24 +6.1 units
Before I dig into this, let’s take a look at where I start my research every week, in our Research Station, which has all our stats, projections, and literally any thing else you need to not only dominate Daily Fantasy Sports, but is a very useful tool for betting as well! Also, sign up for access to our brand new Research Lab as well, which kicks things up an extra notch!
Alright, enough with the intros, for this week, this article will be FREE! And I will give you 2 of my favorite picks and 1 fun pick as well that can really lead to big payoffs if they hit as they are longshot odds. All of these are current as of me writing this article on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig in:
Todd Gurley to Score (-121) to Win 1 Unit
Both of these teams have been really bad defensively, and Gurley has been a TD machine this year, notching 7 TD’s already on the year, including that accidental one last week that actually ended up costing the Falcons the game. This should be a competitive, high-scoring game and the place to attack this Carolina defense in on the ground as they rank 28th in the NFL in team DVOA against the run and 30th overall in total team DVOA. If the Falcons get inside the 10 yard line, they’re going to stick the ball in his gut and try to have him run it in as they’ve just been horrible at converting TD passes in the red zone for years now. With Gurley averaging a TD per game, I like his chances here, as does our Research Station, as he is projected for a TD here tonight as well.
Matt Ryan Over 1.5 TD passes (-190) to Win 1 Unit
This Falcons offense loves to throw the ball, and while I know I already have Gurley scoring a TD here, I just think that this play is free money given the pace and style of play we expect in this game. Our Research Station has Julio projected for over 2 TD passes as well given that this game should be a shootout. Both of Ryan’s primary receivers also draw green lights in our WR vs CB Matchup Chart, as this Carolina secondary has been getting torched by opposing WRs all year long and they get to face a really good pair here in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Julio Jones has a 5 inch height advantage against Donte Jackson here tonight, and Calvin Ridley is taking on Troy Pride Jr. who is allowing a perfect passer rating when thrown at on the year. As I mentioned above, Carolina also ranked 30th in overall team DVOA which means that they’re allowing a ton of points in all phases of the game and Ryan should have a lot of success through the air here, especially if the Falcons fall behind in the first half.
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This last section of the article will be what I like to call my DeGen specials, which are basically bets that have high odds that aren’t likely to happen, but if they do, the payoffs are massive. Here’s one that I like:
D.J. Moore to Score 2 TDs (+1000) 0.1 Units
I think that this will be a very high scoring game, as both of these teams have bad defenses and offenses that like to push the ball down the field. D.J. Moore has been heating up over the past 2 weeks and draws a great matchup here against Kendall Sheffield who is allowing a 120.3 passer rating when thrown at on the year. What I like here is that Sheffield is allowing a lot of yards after catch on the year (36.3) per game and we know that Moore is very dangerous in the open field. The Panthers have also shown that they aren’t afraid to send him vertical on deep balls either, as I think the Falcons will be more likely to try and shut down Robby Anderson here as he has been the bigger threat in the passing game since his arrival in Carolina. I like Anderson’s chances at 2 TDs as well but I like the +1000 we get with Moore.
Those are some of my favorite plays for tonight’s game, for all my picks you have to join us at Sportsbet Army, and with a great catch phrase… PITTER PATTER, LETS GET AT ER’
That’s all I have for you in the FREE article, for access to all of my picks for this game, join me in the coaching channels over at Sports Bet Army.