The Dawg Pound: Mutt18’s Thursday Night Football Player Props, New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: Sports Betting for DeGens

Welcome fellow Degenerates! My name is Steve, a.k.a. Mutt18 (mutt_18 on Twitter) and I’m breaking ground on a brand new article this week that is a growing trend over here at DFS Army and SportsBet Army which is Player Props. For those of you not familiar with a Player Prop, basically, a sports betting website/bookie will give odds on how likely a player is going to achieve, in this case we’ll say, receiving yards, so they can put the odds at -112 that player X will get over or under 57.5 receiving yards, so if you bet the over, you think that player will score 58+ receiving yards and if you bet the under, you’re betting that they will have less. It can actually be very profitable as well as we can get on hot streaks like we did last week and win tons of $$$. First, we’ll take a look at what happened last week with my these picks, follow me fellow DeGens!

Week 6:

Last week was a blood bath, I figured some regression was coming, but there is nowhere to go but up after that. Honestly, all it did was make me angry and I’m coming back with a vengeance this week and we get back on track here tonight.

Total for Year: 17-18 -1 units

Last week did not go as planned, but that’s OK as there is bound to be some regression when you go 10 for 11 at any point when you are gambling. All we can do is make smart decisions that put us in the best spots to continue to stay ahead of the bookie.

Before I dig into this, let’s take a look at where I start my research every week, in our Research Station, which has all our stats, projections, and literally any thing else you need to not only dominate Daily Fantasy Sports, but is a very useful tool for betting as well! Also, sign up for access to our brand new Research Lab as well, which kicks things up an extra notch!

Alright, enough with the intros, for this week, this article will be FREE! And I will give you 2 of my favorite picks and 1 fun pick as well that can really lead to big payoffs if they hit as they are longshot odds. All of these are current as of me writing this article on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig in:

Travis Fulgham over 4.5 Receptions (-124) to Win 1 Unit

I’m with Keg on this one, over the past 2 games Fulgham has had 13 targets against Pittsburgh, and 10 targets last week against Baltimore and has posted 16 receptions over the past two games, both of which included Zack Ertz who is now on IR. The Eagles will likely have DeSean Jackson back for this game, who has been dealing with some soft tissue injuries which are always worrisome and can be re-aggravated quite easily. However, Jackson being back should actually help Travis Fulgham as he will help draw James Bradberry away from Fulgham. We saw last week that the Giants will move him around, as he defended both Dontrelle Inman and Terry McLaurin last week, so it’s not a guarantee that he shadows Fulgham here. We’ve seen in the past that the Eagles offense is much better when they have a deep threat like Jackson that can take the top off of a defense and this should open up a lot of space for Fulgham underneath for some easy receptions. In addition to this, the Eagles will also be without Miles Sanders and rely on the committee of Boston Scott and Corey Clement to run the ball. We already saw how this played out in week 1 as they couldn’t get anything going on the ground against Washington. My expectation here is that Doug Pederson and the Eagles come out and give Wentz some easy throws early on to continue to build his confidence which should mean quick slants and underneath routes which play more towards Fulgham’s abilities as we know that DeSean Jackson is the deep threat. Our Research Station also projects Fulgham to have 6 receptions here tonight, and the Giants are ranked 23rd against WRs on the year, allowing a 70% catch percentage and we have a game where Fulgham should be targeted at least 10 times. Fulgham also draws a green light in our WR vs CB Breakdown Sheet, so he checks all the boxes we’re looking for tonight.

Daniel Jones Over 26.5 rushing yards (-136) to Win 1 Unit

The biggest knock on Daniel Jones so far in his young career, is that he is extremely turnover prone, as he has 32 turnovers in only 19 career games, including 18 interceptions, however, he’s done a little better job of holding onto the ball this year compared to last year as he was averaging over a fumble per game. We’ve seen the Giants making changes the past 3 weeks, enabling Jones to run more when he is under pressure (which is a lot). Jones has been under pressure on 44.2% of his drop backs so far this year which is 3rd highest in the league. Over the last 3 games he’s also rushed for 49, 45, and 74 yards, for an average of 56 rushing yards per game, which is more than double the current prop on DraftKings at the moment, so I love this play here tonight. His rushing ability has actually put them in a solid position to win games as well, and this Giants coaching staff is starting to realize that as we saw last week when they knocked off Washington, and a lot of it had to do with Jones’ ability to escape pressure and run the ball effectively as their passing game is just really ineffective with Jones facing constant pressure. The Giants have serious issues with their offensive line as they currently rank dead last among all 32 teams. This is a great indicator that Jones is likely to face heavy pressure from an Eagles defensive line that ranks 4th in the league in both overall performance and sacks. I’m loving this line here, given all of the stats available to us, it seems the Giants offense moving forward is to give Jones one read, and if it isn’t there, he is going to take off and run.

 

Interested in more than just sports betting? We not only dominate sports betting, but Daily Fantasy as well. We have multiple 4-5 figure wins every week and we continue to build on our tools to stay ahead of the competition. Code MUTT18 gets you 20% off a VIP membership for ALL formats we offer FOR LIFE, that’s right, one membership gets you access to every sport and tool we have for one low monthly price.

Code: MUTT18 GETS YOU 20% OFF FOR LIFE

DeGen Special

This last section of the article will be what I like to call my DeGen specials, which are basically bets that have high odds that aren’t likely to happen, but if they do, the payoffs are massive. Here’s one that I like in this game:

Daniel Jones to Score (+425)

For all the same reasons I have listed above, I really like this longshot prop here tonight. Jones should be running for his life all night long and we get a really nice payoff if he can stumble his way into the end zone at some point this evening. I’ll be DeGening on this one for about .25 units.

Those are some of my favorite plays for tonight’s game, and with a great catch phrase… PITTER PATTER, LETS GET AT ER’

That’s all I have for you in the FREE article, for access to all of my picks for this game, join me in the coaching channels over at Sports Bet Army.