Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We head down south to Texas for the final 1.5-mile race of the season, this one a little bit longer than the last. While there will be some similarities to last week, there will also be some differences, so let’s dig in and see how we can use that to our advantage.
As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
Texas Motor Speedway
As previously stated, one of the key differences here is the fact that we have more laps to go around (334 this week compared to 267 from Kansas). That alone gives a little more importance on our dominators, but also keep in mind that we tend to have quite a few more lead changes here (29 of them at the July race, where the two Kansas races saw 17 and 21). On average, this means our lead laps will be spread out a little more, which again puts more emphasis on needing multiple dominators here.
All in all, I would go for two dominators in all formats on both sites at the minimum, and would also consider some triple dominator lineups over on DraftKings (GPP only). That’s usually reserved for the short tracks, but even with “only” 334 laps (compared to the 500 we’ll get next week), I do think both approaches are valid here.
While Kansas is statistically the more chaotic track (averaging about one more DNF per race), we still get about the same number of cautions here. That, combined with all the lead changes, tends to shuffle drivers around a lot, so expect to see a few names pop up in the top-15 / top-10 that wouldn’t normally be there. In other words, don’t be afraid to get a little funky in GPP, because the winning lineups here tend to look just a little more out of place than the ones at Kansas and some other 1.5-mile tracks.
How about those playoff drivers?
We saw Logano snag himself a win last week, putting him in the championship race. Odds are, we’ll see another playoff driver take the checkered flag here, but there will be at least one driver that has to get in with points, so let’s look at those:
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The order is mostly the same, though that Logano win dropped everybody else down a peg. Elliott is now below the cutoff by a mere 8 points (don’t be surprised if we see an even tighter gap next week), and I think most surprisingly, Bowman moved above Truex…at a 1.5-mile track! Now, all of these drivers are still close enough to one another that they do need a strong showing, preferably ending with a victory. While Harvick and Hamlin have a decent lead, they’re not in a position where they can afford to exit the race early, so expect to see them on top of their game just like the others will need to be.
As for Kurt, well, he’s awfully far back, and really needs to win this thing. He won’t be a favorite by any means, but he did win at Las Vegas, so don’t be afraid to play him here.
The Field
Dominators
I think it’s fair to say that Harvick is the favorite to lead early, perhaps also the mid/late race, and compete for a win by the end of this thing. His car seemed to be strongest on the short/mid run, though having the lead will naturally make it difficult for others to pass him, putting him in a favorable position to lead a good chunk of this race. However, if he has a bad start, that’ll give Logano the open door, and trust me, even with a win in this round, he’d be more than happy to lead this race and grab another win. That would put a ton of pressure on the other playoff drivers entering Martinsville, which is exactly the kind of thing he would do.
After that, I’d look at Blaney as a strong option for all formats (led 150 laps in the July race), and Truex/Hamlin as solid GPP options. At first glance, I really like the Harvick/Blaney combo for cash games and ladders.
Elliott and Keselowski are of course options, but I’m not as confident in Elliott taking over the lead from one of these other guys, and Keselowski hasn’t shown a ton of dominance at the 1.5-mile tracks as of late. I think these two will be better served next weekend at Martinsville, but feel free to get exposure to them here, because they won’t be as popular as the others.
Honorable mention: Kyle Busch. I don’t expect him to do a whole heck of a lot in terms of leading laps, but he’s getting cheaper and we were just at a 1.5-mile track, which helps his “no practice, no good” issues of 2020. He finished 5th last weekend with 9 fast laps / 4 lead laps, so it’s not like he’s a snail or anything. He’s way too cheap for the raw upside he does offer, it’s just a big question of if he’ll find that sort of ceiling or not.
Studs
Thanks to a not-so-great finish last week (thanks to somebody running into him), Jones will start 17th, though he isn’t very expensive for the top-5 upside (with nearly a top-10 floor) he carries. He’s easily my favorite stud this week.
After that, it’s easy to point to Bowyer and Johnson, mostly due to starting position. While both have top-10 upside, I’d say Bowyer has a much better chance of doing it, though this is Texas, a place that can really bring out the best of Johnson, even if he has been pretty quiet lately. All in all, keep these guys for GPP, and opt for Jones for cash games and ladders.
After that we have a few guys worth sprinkling around (though they’re much better options on FanDuel) – Bowman, Byron, Kurt, and Almirola. Nothing too fancy here, just some top-5 upside with reduced ownership. I’d say I like them in roughly this order.
Nov 3, 2019; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Performers drive on the front stretch before the AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
Value studs
While not quite as strong as they are some weeks, we still have some solid options here this week. Reddick and DiBenedetto lead the way here, both starting in good spots and both with top-10 / top-5 upside (Reddick finished 2nd here in July). If you can afford him, I love Reddick for all options, while DiBenedetto makes a great GPP pivot/stacking option. I could see both of them finishing in the top-8 or so, so don’t be afraid to build a few lineups focusing on these two paired up.
The other usual suspects are all in play here, too; Bell, Custer, and even Austin Dillon (he won the July race after leading 22 laps). I would prefer Reddick for cash games, but these three are all solid options that are right up there with DiBenedetto. I don’t think I would get carried away with a three-man stack here, but taking one to two of them per lineup would be a healthy approach.
I wasn’t really sure where to put Kenseth, as he’s sort of an in-between this week, so I’ll put him here. He’ll start 32nd, giving him a great floor, but it’s hard to know exactly where his ceiling would be. If he puts together a solid race and gets a touch of help, he could see a top-20, maybe even a top-15. If not, he may put up a bit of a dud and wind up in the mid/high 20’s somewhere, so there’s certainly some risk. However, he’s fairly inexpensive and will probably be popular, so I don’t mind going here for cash games. Certainly viable in GPP too, but he makes a good fade candidate if you’re wanting to find a place to get some leverage on the field.
And of course…Stenhouse. He’ll start 22nd, giving him some solid upside if he can grab a top-10, but it’s anybody’s guess as to where he’ll wind up due to him being so volatile. GPP only for this guy!
Value drivers
I’m going to start this one at the bottom – I just love LaJoie in this spot. He’s cheap and keeps on producing at these 1.5-mile tracks, especially here, where he finished 16th back in July. Granted, that race was a little wonky, but he does show what he’s capable of if things go his way. Even if not, a low 20’s finish is a reasonable target for him. I’d put Ty Dillon right there with him, though with how hit-or-miss he can be, I’d be a little more comfortable paying down to LaJoie for cash games (ladders are fine too). Definitely get Ty in there for ladders and/or GPP, though.
After that, most of these other drivers are in play, but I’d lean GPP here and go to the two above for cash games. Anyway, look at McDowell, Buescher, Newman, Nemechek, Preece, and Suarez to round out your cheap options (in roughly that order). Remember what I said earlier in this article, that we’ll probably see some oddballs pop up where they wouldn’t normally be. These guys are all among the most likely to be “that driver” so be sure you’re playing them!
Punts
I don’t see a reason to pay below LaJoie and Ty Dillon this week…well, Suarez if you really want to. But I don’t recommend going any lower than that.
Quick recap
Dominators (2 for general purpose on both sites for all formats, can also do 3 for DraftKings GPP)
- Primary dominator – Harvick, Logano
- Secondary dominators – Blaney, Truex, Hamlin, Kyle Busch
- Secondary pivots – Keselowski, Elliott
Studs
- Primary – Jones, Bowyer/Johnson
- Pivots – Bowman, Byron, Kurt, Almirola (these four are better served on FanDuel)
Value studs
- Primary – Reddick, DiBenedetto, Kenseth
- Pivots – Bell/Custer/Austin, Stenhouse
Value drivers
- Primary – LaJoie/Ty Dillon
- Pivots – McDowell, Buescher/Newman/Nemechek/Preece/Suarez
Closing thoughts
Not a whole lot left to go over here. Remember the playoff narratives, remember what we went over earlier with the funky lineups, and remember to roll out those cash ladders, especially at races like this. Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!