NASCAR Calming the Chaos 10/11/20 – The Roval

Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos!  We head back to Charlotte for this season’s final road course race, a trip around the Roval.  Wouldn’t it figure that another fun, potentially chaotic track would host this round’s elimination race?  Of course!

As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet.  If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.

Charlotte Roval

Much like the Daytona Road Course (DRC), the Roval is one part speedway mixed with one part road course.  Though the Roval is shorter, they are fairly similar in layout (as opposed to the normal road courses we got in previous years, Sonoma and Watkins Glen, which are quite a bit different).  This means that while they shouldn’t be used as an absolute direct comparison, I do think we can draw some conclusions between the two.  Basically, don’t be afraid to use the DRC results in your research along with the two previous Roval races.

Elimination race #2

We enter the second elimination race of the playoffs, where we’ll see four more drivers’ championship hopes come to an end.  Some of the drivers have a bit of a comfortable lead coming into this one, but over half of them are probably looking at it as a “must win” race.  Two have already won in this round (Hamlin and Kurt), so I don’t really expect them to tear up good race cars by pushing too hard.

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Honestly, I can’t say I’m as excited about some of these drivers as I am some non-playoff ones, though there are exceptions (especially you, Elliott).  I don’t think this will be a race where you can just slam in all of the playoff drivers and call it good, so don’t get carried away with that narrative.

The Field

Hybrids

It’s been a while but hey, we have a couple of hybrids this week.  That would be Blaney and Johnson, both of who look to be very strong options.  Neither finished worse than 9th in the 2018 or 2019 races, and Blaney won the first one (granted, Johnson may have won it if he didn’t get tangled up with Truex).  Both are starting deep in the field (24th for Blaney, 30th for Johnson), both have top-10 / top-5 upside, and both could lead a handful of laps.  There’s a pretty good chance that one of these two will be in the winning lineup, possibly both, so don’t shy away from them for cash games and GPP alike.

Dominators

With only 109 laps, and a few place differential plays, there’s not as much importance on the dominators this week as we see in others.  With that in mind, I’d probably go for one dominator in all formats on all sites.  I don’t mind using two dominators on DraftKings for GPP, but I don’t think we’ll need to double up on them in cash games.

The favorite has to be Elliott, who is essentially in a league of his own right now when it comes to road course races.  I think he’ll have a good shot at grabbing the early lead from Hamlin, and even if he doesn’t, he’ll still have 50-75+ lead lap and top-3 upside with the remainder of the race.

If Elliott doesn’t get the early lead, it would probably be Hamlin.  If not either one of them, I would look at Harvick (4th) and Keselowski (3rd), who will start in the second row.  I would probably rank them in that order, and I don’t think stacking these guys is really the answer this week.  If you do, be sure you limit the stacking to no more than two of them, and do it in GPP only!

Field – Truex, Kyle Busch, Logano, Bowman, and Austin Dillon.  None of them stand out too much, but it’s worth noting that Truex, Logano, and Bowman have strong finishes here, which could put them in play on FanDuel if nothing else.

Studs

We get some interesting price adjustments here this week, mainly due to starting positions.  Both sites did it this time, where we usually see one or the other do it.  The most notable is McDowell, who jumps all the way up to $8,100 / $9,000 on DK / FD.  He’ll start 31st, and seeing that he finished 10th at DRC and 12th/18th at the two Roval races, he might just be worth it.  He can almost be looked at as a cheaper Blaney/Johnson, just without the top-5 and lead lap potential (though another top-15 / top-10 is certainly within reach).  If you can afford him, he looks to be a solid option in all formats.

DiBenedetto is priced very close to him and will start 20th.  He finished 11th and 13th at the Roval races and 15th at DRC, and offers about the same upside as the others I just mentioned.  However, for the price, it’s easier to take McDowell here, which makes DiBenedetto a fine GPP option.

With the place differential guys out of the way, we can look at Bowyer, Byron, Kurt, and Almirola next.  Their raw finishing position upside seems to be roughly in that order, starting with top-5 / top-10 upside with Bowyer/Byron, and top-15 / top-10 upside for Kurt and Almirola.  They don’t offer very much place differential, so they may be a little better suited on FanDuel, but I would still get at least some exposure to them on DraftKings since they could lead a few laps (Byron led 23 here last year).

Field – Jones hasn’t had any good runs here, but did finish 11th at DRC, so there is that.  He’ll start 14th though, so again, nothing overly exciting there unless he can find a top-5 somehow.

Value studs

Bell will start 35th for a very reasonable $7,500 / $7,600 on DK / FD.  His 21st place finish at DRC wasn’t anything to get crazy about, but he did have a fair amount of success at road courses in XF, so I do think we could see a little more out of him this time around.  If you have the salary, I like him for all formats.  He’s certainly safer than…

Stenhouse!  You know the drill by now.  He’ll start 38th and finished 16th at DRC as well as 17th at the Roval last year.  He also finished 37th the year before that, which pretty much sums up exactly what he’s capable of; a top-15 or top-40 finish.  Which will it be?  Who knows, so try to keep him in GPP if it can be helped.

Custer starts 28th, while Reddick will start 16th.  I would say both have similar finishing position upside to Bell, it’s just a difference of starting position and salary here.  For cash games I would probably just pay up for Bell, but these two make solid GPP pivots (or you can try to attack this price range and go a little more balanced in lineup construction).

Field – Nothing special here.  Buescher is capable of a top-20, maybe even a top-15, but seeing that he starts 21st, he probably won’t have as much upside as the others here.  Feel free to use him as a pivot just in case he surprises us with a top-10 (hello, chaos) and/or if the better options put up duds.

Value drivers

All things considered, this entire group is a bit weak this time around, but could be worth sprinkling around just in case.  They all face issues of either starting a bit too close (or above) their likely finishing position upside, or just aren’t all that good here (or other road courses).

For raw finishing position upside, I’d say Ty Dillon has the best of the group, but again, he’s not starting very deep, which really puts a damper on things.  After him I’d probably rank the rest of the group in this order: Preece/LaJoie/Suarez, then Newman/Wallace/Kenseth/Nemechek.  I can’t say I love any of them, and I would try to pay up a little for the value studs whenever possible.

Punts

Most of these guys are starting well above where they’re likely to finish, so I would avoid most of them this week.  Maybe Davison if you need to go here, maaaybe Yeley/Gaulding, but there’s just not much to love here.  Definitely fade those starting in the 20’s.

Quick recap

Hybrids

• Blaney/Johnson

Dominators (1 for general purpose DK/FD, up to 2 for DK GPP)

• Primary dominator – Elliott, Hamlin
• Pivots or secondary dominators – Harvick/Keselowski
• Other pivots – Truex, Kyle Busch, Logano, Bowman, Austin Dillon

Studs

• McDowell, DiBendetto, Bowyer/Byron, Kurt/Almirola
• Pivot – Jones

Value studs

• Bell, Custer/Reddick, Buescher
• Low floor / high ceiling pivot – Stenhouse

Value drivers

• Ty Dillon, Preece/LaJoie/Suarez
• Pivots – Newman/Wallace/Kenseth/Nemechek

Punts 

• Davison, Yeley/Gaulding (or just fade)

Closing thoughts

That’ll about do it for this one.  This race looks to be about lineup construction and being able to squeeze in as much ceiling as possible, without having to drop too low in salary for your final driver(s).  Remember not to go overboard with the dominators here as there are only 109 laps.  Don’t go stacking a bunch of them when we have strong place differential plays, like the hybrids.  Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!